1. 2004 Workplan WRAP Regional Modeling Center Prepared by: Gail Tonnesen, University of California Riverside Ralph Morris, ENVIRON Corporation Zac Adelman, University of North Carolina Tom Moore, WRAP

2. Background The Air Quality Modeling Forum has two major areas of activity planned for 2004: RMC will continue, implementing many of the tools and improvements developed in 2003. RMC will use the same team of contractors (UCR, ENVIRON, CEP) that have been used for the past two years The second major area of activity is to initiate modeling for Class I areas in Alaska. Major deliverables (based on available EI data): Geographic source apportionment Natural/Manmade source apportionment

3. 2003 Work Plan Tasks to Be Completed in Early 2004 Description DeliverablesDate Task 2003-3: 2002 MM5 model Evaluation 1.Final Modeling Protocol 2.MM5 36 km 2002 Evaluation 1/31/04 2/15/04 Task 2003-2: 2002 Interim Emissions Inventory 1. Completed 2002 36 km EI 2. Emissions QA Report 2/15/04 Task 2003-3: CMAQ Model Performance Evaluation for summer/winter 2002 1. CMAQ evaluation for summer & winter 2002 2/15/04 Task 2003-5: Model Evaluation1. Documentation of software 2. Demonstration of SA tool 2/15/04 1/28/04 Task 2003-1: 2002 Ammonia Emissions Inventory for WRAP region. 1. NH3 EI data sets 2. Final Report 2/15/04

4. Major Elements in the 2004 RMC Work Plan 1. Project Administration 2. MM5 Modeling for 2002 3. 2002 Base Emission Inventory 4. CMAQ Evaluation 5. Source Apportionment 6. Natural Background Analysis 7. Comparison of Alternate Models 8. Fugitive Dust Model 9. Model Performance Software 10. Fire Sensitivity 11. Alaska Modeling 12. Training

5. Summary of 2004 Budget

6. Summary of RMC 2004 FTE Effort

7. Task 1: Project Administration Description: Website and listserv support, technical reports, project tracking and coordination with modeling efforts supported by other RPOs DeliverablesDateBudget 1. QA Plan 2. Biweekly Conference MF Call and Monthly progress 3. Monthly Progress Report 4. Periodic Website Updates 5. MM5, Emissions and CMAQ data files 2/28/049%

8. Task 2: MM5 Modeling for 2002 Purpose: Test, improve, quality control, obtain external peer review, and finalize 36km and 12km MM5 simulations for eventual use in CMAQ Deliverables DateBudget 1. MM5 Modeling Protocol 2. Complete base case MM5 evaluation for 36 km domain 3. Completed base case MM5 evaluation for 12 km domain 4. Comparison with VISTAS MM5 modeling for 2002 5. Sensitivity analysis using various PBL schemes, LSM modules, FDDA nudging strength 6. Independent Peer Review 7. Diagnose any remaining performance problems 1/25/04 1/31/04 4/30/04 As needed. 8/31/04 10/31/04 6%

9. Task 2: MM5 Modeling for 2002 High resolution 12 km nested grid for the WRAP region, shown in blue, to be used in the WRAP 2002 modeling. Domain size is 207 columns by 186 rows.

10. Task 3: 2002 Base Emission Inventory Purpose: Develop and QA 2002 interim emissions inventory, and major updates throughout 2004. Prepare emissions sensitivity cases for model testing and evaluation. Deliverables DateBudget 1. Base 36km 2002 Winter/Summer emissions 2. Base 36 km 2002 annual emissions with extended coverage of non-US sources, natural sources, and offshore emissions sources 3. Iterative/Periodic Major updates to 2002 EI 4. Base 12 km 2002 emissions 5. Plume-in-Grid (APT) Emissions inventory 6. 6 emissions sensitivity cases (changes in SOx, NOx etc) 1/05/04 2/28/04 (TBD) 6/30/04 7/31/04 15%

11. Task 4: CMAQ Evaluation Purpose: 2002 base year air quality modeling with CMAQ Deliverables DateBudget 1. Preliminary Summer/Winter 2002 modeling, 2. Preliminary Annual 2002 modeling 3. Periodic revised annual modeling scenarios, depending on timing and availability of emissions updates and plans for sensitivity runs. 4. Annual Model simulation for 12 km WRAP domain 5. 10 additional annual model sensitivity simulations (with changes in emissions or science configuration for diagnostic evaluation). 1/29/04 3/31/04 (TBD) 7/31/04 12/31/04 14%

12. Task 5: Source Apportionment Purpose: Preparation and reporting of geographic source apportionment results based on modeling the “Interim 2002” emissions inventory Deliverables DateBudget 1. Source apportionment report using emissions/met data available 4/30. 7/15/047%

13. Task 6: Natural Background Analysis Purpose: Further analysis of model performance in regard to the contribution of natural emissions to visibility impairment Deliverables DateBudget 1. Natural Emissions EI 2. CMAQ simulation with natural EI 3. Report describing results 7/31/03 8/31/03 10/31/03 2%

14. Task 8: Fugitive Dust Model Task under development WRAP WB Phase 1 Model (MacDougall Method) report published Now assessing alternative models (Shao, Zender, Westphal – compare to existing MacDougall Method) Identify best model which can be implemented this summer Task Deliverables: Implement alternative dust algorithm. Prepare CMAQ emissions inventory Complete CMAQ simulations and performance evaluation

15. Task 10: Fire Sensitivity Deliverables DateBudget 1. Report on analysis of existing results. 2. Report results of additional model runs 6/30/04 8/31/04 5% Purpose: The RMC will conduct fire emissions sensitivity analyses funded by the Fire Emissions Joint Forum

16. Task 11: Alaska Modeling Purpose: To test and evaluate air quality modeling techniques in Alaska and develop the modeling approaches necessary for Alaska to perform the technical analysis needed to support their requirements for the Regional Haze Rule (RHR). Overall Approach: Develop Methods for MM5 Meteorological Modeling in Alaska Annual MM5 Modeling Air Quality Modeling and Analysis Review and Recommendations of Regional Haze Modeling for Alaska

17. Task 11: Alaska Modeling (cont.) Locations of the 4 Class I areas in Alaska along with the two biggest Alaska cities, Anchorage and Fairbanks. MM5 45 km (D01), 15 km (D02) and 5 km (D03 and D04) grid configuration for real-time forecasting being conducted by UAF

18. Task 11: Alaska Modeling (cont.) Deliverables DateBudget  Episode selection report that describes rationale for selecting the modeling episodes. · Preliminary MM5 modeling and model configuration report · Draft Final and Final Report on the annual MM5 modeling and model performance evaluation. · Annual MM5 output files · Preliminary trajectory and Lagrangian modeling and model configuration report using the preliminary episodic MM5 modeling results; · Draft Final and Final trajectory and Lagrangian modeling report using the annual MM5 data · Modeling review and recommendations report 3/31/04 6/30/04 7/31/04 7/31/04 10/31/04 12/31/04 23%

19. Task 12: Training Proposed Training Courses Basic SMOKE/CMAQ Training To be done at the CMAS center Manager Level Training Tribal Training Hands-on Support Training on Source Apportionment/Sensitivity Training will be developed on an as need/as requested basis

20. Other High Priority Tasks, Pending Availability of Funding TaskDescriptionPossible Funding Sources 1. Source ApportionmentFurther improvement of source apportionment techniques in the emissions and air quality models EPA? 2. Global Models for Boundary Conditions Integration of global-scale estimates of model domain boundary conditions into WRAP modeling analyses VISTAS 3. De Minimus Fire Modeling 9. Fugitive DustTesting and further improvements to the windblown dust emissions