1. GFS Surface Temperature (T2m) Cold Bias over CONUS East Mitigation Experiments Detailed verification at Fanglin’s websites http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/para/t2mbias/exp2012 / http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/para/t2mbias/exp2012w/

2. RSMTBL =(/300.0, 175.0, 175.0, 300.0, 300.0, 70.0, & 45.0, 225.0, 225.0, 225.0, 400.0, 45.0, & 150.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, & 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, & 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0/) NROOT_DATA =(/4,4,4,4,4,4,3,3,3,2,3,3,2,0,0, & 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0/) !The following is for CFS test exp14. Mike and Jesse 20090618 RSMTBL =(/300.0, 175.0, 175.0, 300.0, 70.0, 70.0, & 20.0, 70.0, 70.0, 70.0, 70.0, 20.0, & 70.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, & 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, & 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0/) NROOT_DATA =(/4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,0,0, & 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0/) Current Operational GFS Table used before 20110509 implementation and current test 2 Minimum Canopy Resistance (RSMIN) and Root Depth Number (NROOT) were changed in May-2011 Implementation leading to increased evapotranspiration over some regions depending on vegetation type

3. Mixed forest over Siberia rsmin reduced from 300 to 70 Bare soil from 400 to 70 Over cropland, rsmin was reduced more than half from 45 to 20 Provided by Helin Wei

5. Parallel Experiments Uses the Table before 20110509 implementation -- change minimum canopy resistance and root depth parameters. Warm season experiment prt2mexp: Started from the operational GFS 20120531 18Z initial conditions. Results presented here is for the period of Jun 14 – Aug 22, 2012 Cool season experiment prt2mwin: Started from the prd12q3s hybrid-enkf parallel 20120101 06Z initial conditions. Results presented here is for the period of Jan 15 – March 01, 2012 5

6. Summary of Findings Warm Season Experiment (prt2mexp) Reduced late-afternoon surface cold bias and moisture bias over the Northern and Southern Great Plains found in the operational GFS. Slightly worsened the mid-day warm bias over the Southeastern US. Greatly improved the CONUS precipitation skill scores, especially for light rains. No significant impact on hurricane track and intensity. No significant (adverse) impact on other forecast skill scores, such as 500-hPa height AC and tropical wind RMSE. Cool Season Experiment (prt2mexp) Compared to the operational GFS, surface temperature over the southern South America is warmer and the air is drier. No significant impact any of the other forecast skill scores. 6

7. Warm Season Experiment prt2mexp AC and RMSE Verified against Analyses 7

8. 8 NH 500-hPa HGT AC SH 500-hPa HGT AC

9. 9

10. Verification against Surface Obs & and RAOBS 10

11. 11 T2m Northern Great Plains

12. 12 T2m Southern Great Plains

13. 13 T2m CONUS West

14. 14 T2m CONUS East

15. 15 Solid line: operational GFS Dotted line: prt2mexp

16. 16 Reduced moisture bias over North America Solid line: operational GFS Dotted line: prt2mexp

17. 17

18. 18

19. 19 Hurricane Track and Intensity

20. 20 2012 Atlantic Hurricanes http://en.wikipedia.org Storm name Dates active Storm category at peak intensitycategory Max 1-min wind mph (km/h) Min. press. (mbar)mbar AlbertoMay 19 – May 22Tropical storm60 (95)995 BerylMay 26 – May 30Tropical storm70 (110)992 ChrisJune 19 – June 22Category 1 hurricane75 (120)987 DebbyJune 23 – June 27 Tropical storm60 (95)990 ErnestoAugust 1 – August 10Category 1 hurricane85 (140)980 FlorenceAugust 4 – August 6Tropical storm60 (95)1000 HeleneAugust 9 – August 19 Tropical storm45 (75)1004 GordonAugust 15 – August 20Category 2 hurricane110 (175)965 Isaac August 21 – Currently active Tropical storm45 (75)1003 Joyce August 22 – Currently active Tropical storm40 (65)1006 Season Aggregates 10 cyclones May 19 - Currently active 110 (175)965

21. 21 2012 Eastern Pacific Hurricanes http://en.wikipedia.org Storm name Dates active Storm category at peak intensitycategory Max 1-min wind mph (km/h) Min. press. (mbar)mbar AlettaMay 14 – May 19Tropical storm50 (85)1000 BudMay 21 – May 26Category 3 hurricane115 (185)960 CarlottaJune 14 – June 17Category 2 hurricane105 (165)976 DanielJuly 4 – July 11Category 3 hurricane115 (185)961 EmiliaJuly 7 – July 15Category 4 hurricane140 (220)945 FabioJuly 12 – July 18Category 2 hurricane105 (165)972 GilmaAugust 7 – August 11Category 1 hurricane80 (130)984 HectorAugust 11 – August 17Tropical storm45 (75)993 Season Aggregates 8 cyclones May 14 – Currently active 140 mph (220 km/h)945

22. 22

23. 23

24. 24

25. 25

26. 26

27. CONUS Precipitation Skills Scores 27

28. 28 Improved light-rain QPF Scores! 12-36 hrs

29. 29 36-60hrs

30. 30 60-84hrs

31. Differences Between prt2mexp and operational GFS Maps of Physics Fields 31

32. 32 3~5 K

33. 33 Reduced moisture bias

34. 34 Convective rainfallTotal rainfall Less convective rainfall

35. 35 Top soil moisture Deep soil moisture drier wetter

36. 36 Top soil temperature Deep soil temperature

37. T2m Maps & Soundings by Geoffrey Manikin 37

38. 21-HR 2-m Temp Fcsts from 00z 7/22 NAM GFS-OPS OBS

39. GFS EXP GFS OPS 21-HR 2-m Temp Fcsts from 00z 7/22

40. GFS EXP NAM OBS 21-HR 2-m Temp Fcsts from 00z 7/22

41. NAM GFS OPS OBS 24-HR 2-m Dew Pt Fcsts from 00z 7/22

42. GFS OPS GFS EXP 24-HR 2-m Dew Pt Fcsts from 00z 7/22

43. GFS EXP NAM OBS

44. DVN SOUNDINGS valid 00z 7/23 QUAD CITIES, Iowa SOLID-OBS DASH-GFS f24 SOLID-OBS DASH- EXP GFS f24 SOLID-OBS DASH-NAM f24

45. SOLID-OBS DASH-GFS f24 SOLID-OBS DASH-EXP GFS f24 SOLID-OBS DASH-NAM f24 ILX SOUNDINGS valid 00z 7/23 Lincoln, Illinois

46. SOLID-OBS DASH-GFS f24 SOLID-OBS DASH-NAM f24 SOLID-OBS DASH-EXP GFS f24 OAX SOUNDINGS valid 00z 7/23

47. GFS has erroneous maxium at intersection of IA/MN/WI 36-HR 24pcp Fcsts from 00z 7/22 OBS NAM GFS

48. GFS EXP GFS OPS

49. 27-HR PW Fcsts from 00z 7/22

50. 27-HR Best Cape Fcsts from 00z 7/22

51. 24-hr forecast soundings for Omaha, NE Valid 00z 8/5/12 model-dash obs-solid NAM GFS

52. 21-hr forecast soundings model-dash obs-solid GFS-ops GFS-para

53. Precipitation Maps Cases selected by David Novak at HPC 53 24 h period ending 12 UTC June 15 (isolated flooding in southern MN and scatter convection in the Plains and south) 24 h period ending 12 UTC June 20 (historic flash flood in Duluth, MN) 24 h period ending 12 UTC June 26 (Debby) [note: Dave asked for 48-hr accumulation. The scripts need to be updated for making 48-her bucket plot] Please visit http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/para/t2mbias/exp2012/ and clink on “Precip Maps” in the left panel to see maps for all cases.http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/para/t2mbias/exp2012/

54. 24 h period ending 12 UTC June 15 (isolated flooding in southern MN and scatter convection in the Plains and south) 54 36-60-hr Fcst

55. 24 h period ending 12 UTC June 15 (isolated flooding in southern MN and scatter convection in the Plains and south) 55 84-108-hr Fcst

56. 24 h period ending 12 UTC June 20 (historic flash flood in Duluth, MN) 56 36-60-hr Fcst

57. 24 h period ending 12 UTC June 20 (historic flash flood in Duluth, MN) 57 84-108-hr Fcst

58. 24 h period ending 12 UTC June 26 (Debby) 58 36-60-hr Fcst Better intensity

59. Cool Season Experiment prt2mwin AC and RMSE Verified against Analyses 59

60. 60 NH 500-hPa HGT ACSH 500-hPa HGT AC

61. 61

62. Verification against Surface Obs & and RAOBS 62

63. 63 T2m CONUS West

64. 64 T2m CONUS East

65. 65 Solid line: operational GFS Dotted line: prt2mwin

66. CONUS Precipitation Skills Scores 66

67. 67 12-36 hrs

68. 68 60-84hrs

69. Differences Between prt2mexp and operational GFS Maps of Physics Fields 69

70. 70 warmer

71. 71 dryer

72. 72 Top soil moisture Deep soil moisture

73. 73 Top soil temperature Deep soil temperature