1. FY11 Budget and Caseload Update Policy and Fiscal Committee June 6, 2011

2. FY11 Caseload Overview Supportive: The projected surplus has decreased from $11.3M last month to $10.7M this month. The decrease in surplus is due to adjustment of previous months head count and Aprils actual count exceeding projection by 176 children. DTA-Related Caseload: The deficiency has increased from $5.8M last month to $6.7M this month. Two factors seem to drive the increase: 1) caseload for the months of February and March were adjusted by 843 children (February increased by 120 and March by 723) and 2) actual caseload in April was 267 children more than anticipated. We base our projections on historical data. Income Eligible: The deficiency in Income Eligible increased from $9.3M to $12.4M (an increase of $3M). Factors that have caused the increase are 1) actual voucher caseload in April was 615 children higher than projected. This indicates that continuity of care and other growth factors are exceeding attrition. The prior months adjustment for March increased the actual March caseload by 853 children; actual voucher average daily rate was $1.60 higher than projected in April; and Contract/flex, which is projected using YTD average, exceeded projection by $477K. 2

3. 3 FY 2011 Income Eligible (3000-4060) * Actual Figures Previous month projected a $9.3M deficiency.

4. Income Eligible: Voucher and Contract Expenditure Trend 4 This chart shows the volatility of the voucher average daily spending per month. The voucher caseload daily cost (aggregate) in the past three months, the months in which access has been closed, has been among the most expensive in FY11.

5. FY 2011 Income Eligible Caseload Projected Cost 5 FY11 Approp: $233.5M (Amount in Thousands) Blue represents actual amount billed Current projections indicate that, even with transferability, EEC will be unable to meet the cost of June billing (processed in late July)

6. Data source: Data extract 2011/04/26

7. 7 Data source: Data extract 2011/04/26

8. 8 Fiscal Year 2011 DTA Related (3000-4050) Previous month projected a $5.7M deficiency.

9. FY2011 DTA Caseload Projected Cost 9 FY11 Approp: $127.3M ( Amount in Thousands) Blue = Actual amount billed Green = Projection EEC will need to request supplemental funding to support the June expenses.

10. 10 Fiscal Year 2011 Supportive Care (3000-3050) Previous month projected a surplus of $11.3M.

11. FY 2011 Supportive Caseload Projected Cost 11 FY11 Approp: $85.7M (Amount in Thousands) Blue = Actual amount billed

12. FY11 Caseload Overview – Summary July 2010 – March 2011 12

13. Deficiency Resolution 13 Below are the options remaining to resolve the deficiency: 1. ARRA CCDF: Apply FY09 CCDF ARRA Funds to Income Eligible funded childcare services for care that is not supplanted. Potential source is to identify the number of new preschool children in FY11 that were assigned to IE vouchers and/or contracts. Use approximately $4.0M in ARRA CCDF funds to support CCDF eligible expenditures in the Income Eligible account for the months of May and June. This strategy has been reviewed by ANF, the Comptrollers Office, the State Auditors Office, and Administration for Children and Families and all have supported this activity. 2. CCDF Funds: EEC received approximately $1M in CCDF supplemental funds which we will apply to the deficit. 3. Supplemental Funding: Request Supplemental Funding from the Legislature for the DTA account to offset the DTA deficit. This request has been submitted to ANF.

14. What Happened? 14

15. What Else Do We Know? 15 Late Billing Vouchers: 1,579 children 124 of these children were also billed late in March for February. 81 (5.12%) of the children billed in April received services for the first time in March. For comparison: 73 of 1698 children (4.3%) billed in March for February received services for the first time in February. There are 32 providers (representing 206 of the children) that had late billing this month (April for March) and had late billing last month (March for February). Contracts: 275 children None of the children billed late in April for March services were billed late in March for February services. 16 (5.81%) of the children billed in April received services for the first time in March. For comparison: 15 of 42 children (35.71%) billed in March for February received services for the first time in February. There are 7 providers (representing 20 of the children) that had late billing this month (April for March) and had late billing last month (March for February).

16. ARRA Spending Update 16 We have spent $16.1M in ARRA funds (67.13%) through May 31. The goal was to have spent $17.6M by the end of May. The projection is under goal partly because the Infant/Toddler rate increase was not implemented.

17. Addendum: FY11 Caseload Waitlist Since 9/2010 17