1. WESTAR Ozone Transport Analysis Clinton P. MacDonald Dianne S. Miller Sean Raffuse Tim S. Dye Sonoma Technology, Inc. Petaluma, CA WESTAR Fall Business Meeting Boise, ID September 27, 2006 STI-3037

2. 2 Overview Project goal: To quantify the contribution of transported ozone to peak ozone concentrations in six western cities for several years Phoenix, AZ Las Vegas, NV Denver, CO Salt Lake City, UT Farmington, NM Seattle, WA

3. 3 Source: http://www.al.noaa.gov/WWWHD/Pubdocs/assessment94/common-questions.html Background – Ozone (1 of 2) Ozone occurs naturally Concentrations of stratospheric ozone up to 12,000 ppb protect earth’s inhabitants from ultraviolet radiation. Concentrations of tropospheric ozone are typically 35 to 40 ppb. Ozone concentrations above natural background levels often occur due to photochemical reactions of NO x and VOCs.

4. 4 Background – Ozone (2 of 2) Sources of NO x and VOCs automobile exhaust solvent fumes many other anthropogenic emission sources natural emissions from trees and wildfires

5. 5 Background – Peak Local Ozone Peak local ozone concentrations = Natural ozone + Transported ozone (generated from emissions from upwind cities and natural events such as wildfires) + Local ozone (generated from local anthropogenic emissions)

6. 6 Questions (1 of 2) Background ozone What is the typical natural background ozone concentration? Transport How much ozone, above natural background, was transported into each city? What are the typical source areas for transported ozone?

7. 7 Questions (2 of 2) Local contribution What amount of locally generated ozone was produced at each city? Contribution comparison On what percentage of high-ozone days was peak local 8-hr ozone dominated by locally generated ozone compared to transported ozone? How do these percentages change for each city by transport direction? How do the contribution amounts compare among the cities?

8. 8 Methodology (1 of 3) Peak Local Ozone = Incoming (natural background + transported anthropogenic) + Local Anthropogenic System developed to calculate incoming ozone Ran multiple backward trajectories each day for five years (2001–2005, April–October); Determined the daily peak 8-hr ozone concentration at the last site near which each trajectory passed during daylight hours prior to entering each city; and Averaged all concentrations to estimate incoming boundary layer concentration each day.

9. 9 Methodology (2 of 3) Site B is the last site passed, but it is in the buffer. D is the next nearest site, but Site C is chosen because the trajectory passed Site C after Site D. The trajectory would be assigned the daily peak 8-hr ozone concentration value from Site C. If Site C had been passed overnight and Site D passed during the day (10 a.m. to 5 p.m. local time for the city), Site D would have been selected instead. 72-hr backward trajectory City

10. 10 Methodology (3 of 3) Peak Local Ozone = Incoming (natural background + transported anthropogenic) + Local Anthropogenic Date: 07/18/2003 Incoming peak 8-hr ozone: 63 ppb Natural background ozone: 35 ppb Transported anthropogenic ozone: 28 ppb Locally generated anthropogenic ozone: 40 ppb Peak local 8-hr ozone: 103 ppb Dominant source direction: SE Salt Lake City Sample plot showing the trajectories and component concentrations for Salt Lake City on July 18, 2003

11. 11 Results – Salt Lake City Computed averages from the daily results

12. 12 Results – Las Vegas

13. 13 Results – Locally Generated Ozone Las Vegas Salt Lake City

14. 14 Las Vegas Salt Lake City Results – Transported Ozone

15. 15 Results – Daily Contribution Las Vegas Salt Lake City

16. 16 Results – Frequency, Salt Lake City Local days are characterized by local contribution that is at least two-thirds of the ozone beyond natural background. Transport days are characterized by transport contribution that is at least two-thirds of the ozone beyond natural background.

17. 17 Results – Frequency, Las Vegas

18. 18 Results – Highest Days, Salt Lake City Contributions and source regions for the five highest ozone days. Date Peak Local 8-hr Ozone Concentration (ppb) Total Transported Ozone (ppb) Transported Anthropogenic Ozone (ppb) Locally Generated Anthropogenic Ozone (ppb) Day Type Probable Source Region(s) 7/18/2003103632840Comb. Southern Nevada, Arizona, Utah 7/11/200399693430Comb. Northern Nevada, northern California 6/26/200296511645Local Utah, Arizona, southern California 6/25/200295552040Local Southern California, southern Nevada, Utah 7/10/200294693425Comb. Southern Idaho, Oregon

19. 19 Results – Highest Days, Las Vegas Date Peak Local 8 ‑ hr Ozone Concentratio n (ppb) Total Transported Ozone (ppb) Transported Anthropogenic Ozone (ppb) Locally Generated Anthropogenic Ozone (ppb) Day Type Probable Source Region(s) 8/10/200194723722Combo. Southern California, Mexico 6/29/20039488536 Anthro. Trans. Nevada, Central California, Pacific Northwest 7/21/200393663127Combo. Southern Arizona, Mexico 8/11/200190794411 Anthro. Trans. Southern California, Mexico 7/9/200390754015 Anthro. Trans. California Contributions and source regions for the five highest ozone days.

20. 20 Results – Summary (1 of 2) City Natural Background Ozone (ppb) Average Transported Anthropogenic Ozone (ppb) Average Total Transported Ozone (ppb) Average Locally Generated Ozone (ppb) Average Peak Local 8-hr Ozone (ppb) Number of Days Dominant Source Direction Seattle 351247307822NW,NE Salt Lake City 3520552277129NW,SW Phoenix 3522572178154NW,SW Farmington 352863117352NW,SW Denver 3528631579141ALL Las Vegas 353368977180SW Summary of average contributions on days when peak local 8-hr ozone concentrations were at least 70 ppb

21. 21 Results – Summary (2 of 2) City Natural Background Ozone (ppb) Transported Anthropogenic Ozone (ppb) Total Transported Ozone (ppb) Locally Generated Ozone (ppb) Peak Local 8-hr Ozone (ppb) Number of Days Seattle3584347903 Salt Lake City352257359116 Phoenix352257328919 Denver35 70239225 Las Vegas353974148817 FarmingtonN/A 0 Summary of average contributions on days when peak local 8-hr ozone concentrations were at least 85 ppb

22. 22 Recommendations (1 of 4) Expand the data set Nighttime data Tribal, industrial, and special study data from various organizations Use transport information to determine placement of new rural monitors to better estimate background ozone Determine whether certain transport directions are excluded because of lack of data Las Vegas Arizona – border transport issues Use 20-year satellite ozone data set to investigate how background ozone levels are changing in time (new idea) From Final Report and subsequent WESTAR Committee review

23. 23 Recommendations (2 of 4) Explore the regional and seasonal magnitude of natural background ozone Investigate sources of ozone Fires –Did ozone generated from fire smoke impact ozone concentrations in cities? –How much ozone was generated by fire smoke? –How does the contribution of smoke to ozone vary by transport direction, city, and time of year? Anthropogenic emissions –Couple emission density maps from the WRAP modeling with trajectories

24. 24 Recommendations (3 of 4) Smoke from the Bar Complex and Ralston Fires and certain meteorological conditions led to high ozone in Sacramento. This was the first two-day Unhealthy ozone episode in September in the past five years. Estimates reveal that the smoke led to a doubling of NO x emissions for a typical summer day. Based on historical ozone concentrations on days with similar weather conditions, we estimated that the smoke contributed approximately 10 to 15 ppb to the peak 8-hr average ozone concentrations.

25. 25 Recommendations (4 of 4) Determine meteorological characteristics often associated with high ozone conditions Helps organizations determine episodes that may be caused by natural events Helps direct the modification of natural events policies at the national level Compare modeled ozone with results from this work (lower priority)

26. 26 Final Report MacDonald C.P., Miller D.S., and Raffuse S.M. (2006) Regional and local contributions to peak local ozone concentrations in six western cities. Final report prepared for the Western States Air Resources Council, Seattle, WA, by Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, CA, STI-906004-2970-FR, May.

27. 27 Acknowledgments The authors extend thanks to Bob Lebens of WESTAR for managing this project and for his important technical advice Other members of the WESTAR ozone work group for their valuable input: Steve Arnold, Colorado Department of Environmental Quality Mike Sundblom, Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Phil Allen, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality Brock LeBaron, Bob Clark, and Dave Strohm, Utah Division of Environment Quality