1. The Availability Heuristic “assess the frequency of a class or the probability of an event by the ease with which instances or occurrences can be brought to mind” (T&K, 74: 1127)

2. “Availability heuristic” Events that are easy to imaging “spring to mind” are judged to be more frequent I.e.., highly vivid, emotional can be imagined

3. Example: Availability bias Which is more likely cause of death in US? killed by falling airplane parts? shark attack

4. Implications: What more probable (plausible) Media coverage (crime rate ) Events easy to image (terrorist attack) Events/outcome the are difficult to visualize (interaction effects)

5. Are easily imagined events judged to be more probable? Carroll (1978) 1976 election Imagine Carter wins or Imagine Ford wins …predict “Who is likely to win?”

6. What if event is extremely negative? DENIAL nuclear war AIDS Environmental disasters Global “warming “rape of Indian Ocean”

7. VIVIDNESS how concrete or imaginable something is visuals TV “face-to-face” communications What course to take? Recommend Not Condition Face-to face 4.73.50 No eval- uation 3.33 1.39 Base rate 4.11.94 (Borgida & Nisbett, 1977)

8. Legal Significance? (during jury deliberations?) Pallid condition: “On his way out the door, Sanders (the defendant) staggered against a serving table, knocking a bowl to the floor” Vivid version: “On his way out the door, Sanders staggered against a serving table, knocking a bowl of guacamole dip to the floor and splattering guacamole on the white shag carpet.”

9. Why? Delayed effect Vivid information easier to remember Easier to retrieve from memory “Vivid events may be judged more probable”

10. TYPE of INFORMATION Most likely to be remembers……> more persuasive (delayed effect) Case histories (versus stat abstract) Video (versus written oral presentations) Personal experience “VALID, RELIABLE, TIMELY”

11. How to use these insights? Publicize explicit but non-obvious comparisons: “More people will die from stomach cancer than from car accidents”