1. The Relation Between SD Simulation and Political Change - Personal Reflections Dennis Meadows For the SD PhD Colloquium Albuquerque, NM 25/7/09

2. Definition of Political Change Change requires new behavior, not just new information. Commensurable = measurable by a common standard (for example: $, time saved, weight, speed). Incommensurable = not measurable by a common standard. Politics is the process by which we make decisions about actions that will have incommensurable consequences. Political choice can take many forms.

3. Most Models are not Constructed to Achieve Political Change Provide a context for discussion Create expertise - philosophical or administrative Legitimate expertise Guide the choice among alternatives (justify a preexisting choice) Secure (and keep) employment Attract funding Generate scenarios Predict the future

4. Exercise About Habits

5. Five Habits of Thought that Block Political Change The best approach is to make a good model and then find someone who can use it. Problems have simple causes. Everyone will be happy, if you can point out the solution to a problem. People will use your model, if you show that it is more valid than existing models. Change comes quickly, once the solution is known.

6. Five Habits of Thought that Promote Political Change Find the client before you build the model. If a behavior persists, it is not caused by a random or simple set of conditions. Every problem fulfills the goals of some people and organizations. They will fight your efforts to solve it. Models do not cause change; people do. Change requires sustained effort.

7. Examples of Change Efforts Sprague Electronics Microhydro taxation DESERTEC Maine alcoholism legislation African HIV model World3 and limits to growth

8. Six Relevant Concepts Sacred Cows Two types of problems Time horizon Prevention versus adaptation Invisible college Window of opportunity

9. Scared Cows Most clients have a strong commitment to the idea that some factor is an important cause of the problem or that some impact will be an important result of the effort to solve the problem. Putting the client’s sacred cows into the model will increase the probability of its being believed.

10. Two Types of Problems Global Problems - affect everyone and they can only be solved by international effort: climate change, ocean fish depletion, nuclear proliferation, changing consumer preferences. Universal Problems - affect everyone and they can be solved by local efrfort: energy scarcity, soil erosion, water pollution, loss of market share, falling corporate profits.

11. A Problem NowFuture Better -------> Next Evaluation Actual Desired Time Horizon

12. Easy Problem NowFuture Better -------> Next Evaluation Action #1 Actual Desired Action #2

13. Difficult Problem NowFuture Better -------> Next Evaluation Action #1 Action #2 Actual Desired

14. Increasing the Time Horizon Makes Problems Easier NowFuture Better -------> Next Evaluation Action #1 Action #2 Actual Desired Increased time horizon

15. Two Types of Policy A long time horizon makes preventive policies possible. They can be implemented now can avoid some potential future problem. A short time horizon permits only adaptive policies. They can be implemented now to improve the consequences of problems already being experienced.

16. The Invisible College The perspective on any issue is controlled by a relatively small group, the invisible college. The members of this group do not agree with each other, but they do collectively recognize each other. You can use their knowledge to identify the central members of the group. You will need the support of some people in this group to achieve political change. You can enlist their support in many different ways.

17. Functions of Those in the Invisible College

18. The Window of Influence Time Potential for Influence