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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.1 Southern Lodging Summit 2011 Jan D. Freitag Senior Vice President
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.2 Agenda US Hotel Trends Chain Scale Trends Segmentation US Forecast Memphis Trends AH&LA Channel Study – A First Look Smith Travel Research, Inc. and/or STR Global, Ltd. (collectively for these purposes, “STR”) are the exclusive owners of all rights in these Industry Presentations and their content. Reproduction of all or a portion of these presentations for any purpose without prior approval of STR is strictly prohibited.
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.3 2011 / 2012 Recovery? Or Recovery!
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.4 Total US - Key Statistics YTD July 2011 % Change Hotels 52k Room Supply1.0 bn 0.8% Room Demand622 mm 5.4% Occupancy60.7% 4.6% A.D.R. $101 3.5% RevPAR$61 8.2% Room Revenue$63 bn 9.1%
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.5 Strongest Demand Rebound Ever. Supply Line Turning -6.9% -0.9% - 4.7% *Total US, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/89 – 7/11 6.5%
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.6 ADR Changes Get More Erratic in Each Downturn -8.8% -0.1% - 4.5% *Total US, ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA, 1/89 – 7/11 2.8%
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.7 If year 2000 ADR had increased by CPI each year… Note: 2011 & 2012 CPI forecast from Blue Chip Economic Indicators
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.8 On An Annualized Basis: Most Rooms Sold - EVER *Number of Rooms Sold, 12 MMA, 1/89 – 7/11
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.9 Chain Scales
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.10 Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, W Hotels, InterContinental Upper Upscale – Hyatt, Embassy Suites, Hilton, Marriott, Sheraton Upscale – Hyatt Place, Hilton Garden Inn, Courtyard, Hotel Indigo Upper Midscale – Best Western PLUS/Premier, Hampton Inn Midscale – Best Western, Country Inn & Suites, La Quinta Inn Economy – America’s Best Inn, Econolodge, Red Roof, Days Inn 2011 STR Chain Scales (Selected chains from each segment)
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.11 Demand Rebounds Nicely. Supply Growth in Upscale / UpMid. *US Chain Scales, Supply & Demand % Change, YTD 7/11
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.12 Healthy OCC Growth “Should” Lead to ADR Increases *US Chain Scales, Occupancy & ADR % Change, YTD 7/11
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.13 Selling 7 out of 10 Rooms “Should” Lead to ADR Increases *US Chain Scales, Absolute Occupancy %, YTD 7/11
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.14 After 4 Years Prior Peak ADRs Still Elusive *US Chain Scales, ADR $, YTD 6/07 vs. YTD 7/11
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.15 Segmentation Data
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.16 Transient Demand Rebounds Nicely, But … * Total Transient Demand in Millions of Rooms, 1/07 – 7/11. Millions
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.17 … At What Cost? * Transient ADR $, 1/07 – 7/11
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.18 Group Demand Recovers Nicely, But … * Total Group Demand in Millions of Rooms, 1/07 – 7/11
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.19 … Low Group ADR Will Take (At Least) A Year To “Burn Off” * Group ADR $, 1/07 – 7/11
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.20 US Forecast
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.21 Total United States Outlook Scenarios (% change vs. Prior Year) 2011P Hotel Industry Performance Scenarios 2011 Low RevPAR Growth Forecast High RevPAR Growth Supply0.90.70.4 Demand4.04.75.3 Occupancy3.23.94.6 ADR3.23.74.5 RevPAR6.57.89.1
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.22 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2011F by Chain Scale 2011 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 4.76.711.7 Upper Upscale 2.65.07.7 Upscale 3.74.78.6 Upper Midscale 4.84.29.4 Midscale 4.00.14.1 Economy 2.92.05.4 Total United States 3.93.77.8
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.23 Total United States Outlook Scenarios (% change vs. Prior Year) 2012P Hotel Industry Performance Scenarios 2012 Low RevPAR Growth Forecast High RevPAR Growth Supply0.80.50.3 Demand2.02.52.9 Occupancy1.32.02.7 ADR4.34.95.7 RevPAR5.67.08.4
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.24 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2012F by Chain Scale 2012 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 2.57.710.2 Upper Upscale 1.65.06.7 Upscale 3.66.810.4 Upper Midscale 1.45.66.5 Midscale 2.52.34.8 Economy 2.53.05.5 Total United States 2.04.9 7.0
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.25 Hotel Industry Forecasts – STR Revisions 20112012 DemandADRDemandADR Jan 112.54.22.26.8 Jun 114.64.02.56.0 Aug 114.73.72.54.9
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.26 Takeways Demand Is Back ADR’s “Should” Follow Strong Demand Trust The Data
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.27 Memphis Trends
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.28 % Change Hotels246 Room Supply4.9 mm 0.5% Room Demand2.9 mm 3.4% Occupancy59.6% 2.9% Average Daily Rate $76- 0.1% RevPAR$452.8% Memphis, TN - Key Statistics YTD July 2011
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.29 Supply Growth Muted - Strong Demand Rebound 9.0% 4.1% 1.0% -6.5% * Memphis, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA, Jan ’07– July ’11 4.9%
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.30 ADR % Change Has Not Yet Turned Positive 10.2% - 6.7 % * Memphis, ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA, Jan ’00 – July ’10 - 1.6 %
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.31 * Memphis ADR, 12 MMA, Jan ’07 – July ’11 Absolute ADR Discounts Will Be Felt For A While -10% $84 $76
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.32 Memphis Downtown Select Set Springhill Suites Memphis Downtown Madison Hotel Sleep Inn @ Court Square Memphis Hampton Inn Suites Memphis @ Beale Street River Inn Of Harbor Town Courtyard Memphis Downtown Residence Inn Memphis Downtown Westin Memphis Beale Street King`s Court Motel Holiday Inn Select Memphis Downtown Marriott Memphis Downtown Preferred The Peabody Memphis Comfort Inn Downtown Memphis Econo Lodge Memphis Doubletree Hotel Memphis Downtown Benchmark Hotel
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.33 % Change Hotels16 Room Supply612 k0.1% Room Demand413 k 1.0% Occupancy67.6%1.0% Average Daily Rate $1290.1% RevPAR$871.0% Memphis Downtown Select Set - Key Statistics YTD July 2011
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.34 Downtown Discounts Continue 6.8% - 7.2 % * Select Set, ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA, Jan ’07 – July ’11 - 2.1 % - 4.7 %
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.35 AH&LA Channel Study - A First Look - Smith Travel Research, Inc. and/or STR Global, Ltd. (collectively for these purposes, “STR”) are the exclusive owners of all rights in these Industry Presentations and their content. Reproduction of all or a portion of these presentations for any purpose without prior approval of STR is strictly prohibited.
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.36 Agenda Introduction US Data Scale Data Other Examples
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.37 Channels Brand.com – Marriott.com, Starwood.com, hotel’s own web site CRS/Voice – 1-800-hiltons, 1-800-ichotels, 3 rd parties also GDS – travel agent (Sabre, Galileo, Amadeus, Worldspan) OTA – online travel agents Property Direct/Other – walk-in, group/rooming list, employee/discount, contract
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.38 Participation 24,500 properties submitted data All of the major players –95 chains –25 additional companies
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.39 US Data
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.40 Demand & Revenue Share (%) by Channel Total US, 2010
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.41 OTA Demand & Revenue Share (%) by Business Model Total US, 2009 & 2010
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.42 ADR ($) by Channel Total US, Annual 2009 & 2010
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.43 ADR ($) by OTA Business Model Total US, 2009 & 2010
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.44 Absolute Room Demand by Channel (in millions) Total US, 2009 & 2010
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.45 Absolute Revenue by Channel (in billions $) Total US, 2009 & 2010
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.46 Scale Data
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.47 Property Direct/Other Demand Share (%) by Scale Percent of Total Demand, Annual 2009 & 2010
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.48 GDS Demand Share (%) by Scale Percent of Total Demand, Annual 2009 & 2010
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.49 Brand.com Demand Share (%) by Scale Percent of Total Demand, Annual 2009 & 2010
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.50 CRS/Voice Demand Share (%) by Scale Percent of Total Demand, Annual 2009 & 2010 Higher percentages in upper scales & Independents YOY decrease for most every scale
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.51 OTA Demand Share (%) by Scale Percent of Total Demand, Annual 2009 & 2010
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.52 ADR for Luxury Scale by Channel Annual 2009 & 2010
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.53 Additional Data
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.54 Top 10 Markets - OTA Demand % Annual 2010, OTA demand as % of total demand
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.55 Channel ADR ($) for 5 Metro Markets Annual 2010
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.56 Comp Sets Generated US comp set data 9,000 full comp sets 21,000 sufficient (greater than 4 hotels participating)
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.57 Channel Demand Share for Sample Property in NY Demand Share as percent of Total Demand, Annual 2010
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.58 Length of Stay Data Most companies submitted “Number of Reservations” along with “Room Nights” and “Revenue” Allows us to calculate Length of Stay per Channel
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.59 Length of Stay (Days) by Channel Upper Upscale / Upscale Chains, Annual 2010
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.60 Channel Study Findings to be published in mid-September Corporate monthly product in H1 of 2012 Property Comp Set product out thereafter More research is needed
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2011 Smith Travel Research, Inc.61 www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on “Industry Presentations” Smith Travel Research, Inc. and/or STR Global, Ltd. (collectively for these purposes, “STR”) are the exclusive owners of all rights in these Industry Presentations and their content. Reproduction of all or a portion of these presentations for any purpose without prior approval of STR is strictly prohibited.
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