1. Review of Probability Concepts ECON 4550 Econometrics Memorial University of Newfoundland Adapted from Vera Tabakova’s notes SECOND

2.  B.4.1Mean, median and mode  For a discrete random variable the expected value is: Where f is the discrete PDF of x

3.  For a continuous random variable the expected value is: The mean has a flaw as a measure of the center of a probability distribution in that it can be pulled by extreme values.

4.  For a continuous distribution the median of X is the value m such that  In symmetric distributions, like the familiar “bell-shaped curve” of the normal distribution, the mean and median are equal.  The mode is the value of X at which the pdf is highest.

5. Where g is any function of x, in particular;

7.  The variance of a discrete or continuous random variable X is the expected value of The variance

8.  The variance of a random variable is important in characterizing the scale of measurement, and the spread of the probability distribution.  Algebraically, letting E(X) = μ,

9.  The variance of a constant is?

10. Figure B.3 Distributions with different variances

15. Figure B.4 Correlated data

16.  If X and Y are independent random variables then the covariance and correlation between them are zero. The converse of this relationship is not true. Covariance and correlation coefficient

17.  The correlation coefficient is a measure of linear correlation between the variables  Its values range from -1 (perfect negative correlation) and 1 (perfect positive correlation) Covariance and correlation coefficient

18.  If a and b are constants then:

19. So: Why is that? (and of course the same happens for the case of var(X-Y))

20.  If X and Y are independent then:

21. Otherwise this expression would have to include all the doubling of each of the (non-zero) pairwise covariances between variables as summands as well

23.  B.5.1The Normal Distribution  If X is a normally distributed random variable with mean μ and variance σ 2, it can be symbolized as

24. Figure B.5a Normal Probability Density Functions with Means μ and Variance 1

25. Figure B.5b Normal Probability Density Functions with Mean 0 and Variance σ 2

26.  A standard normal random variable is one that has a normal probability density function with mean 0 and variance 1.  The cdf for the standardized normal variable Z is

28.  A weighted sum of normal random variables has a normal distribution.

30. Figure B.6 The chi-square distribution

31.  A “t” random variable (no upper case) is formed by dividing a standard normal random variable by the square root of an independent chi-square random variable,, that has been divided by its degrees of freedom m.

32. Figure B.7 The standard normal and t (3) probability density functions

33.  An F random variable is formed by the ratio of two independent chi- square random variables that have been divided by their degrees of freedom.

34. Figure B.8 The probability density function of an F random variable

35. Slide B-35 Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition  binary variable  binomial random variable  cdf  chi-square distribution  conditional pdf  conditional probability  continuous random variable  correlation  covariance  cumulative distribution function  degrees of freedom  discrete random variable  expected value  experiment  F-distribution  joint probability density function  marginal distribution  mean  median  mode  normal distribution  pdf  probability  probability density function  random variable  standard deviation  standard normal distribution  statistical independence  variance