1. THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign and Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Toward Better Understanding of Typhoon Life Cycle T. Nakazawa 1 P. Harr 2, S. C. Jones 3, and D. Parsons 4 JMA/MRI 1,, NPS 2, Univ. of Karsruhe 3, WMO 4 CAS TECO Incheon, Korea 16 November 2009 The background picture was taken by Yomiuri Shinbun on Sep. 11 2008

2. Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY U.S. (NOAA) Winter NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s JapanPalau Typhoon Landfall EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] WMOWCRP/WWRPAsian/IndianMonsoon U.S.ONR/NSFTCS-08 [NRL P-3, WC-130] THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts SoWMex TH08 PROBEX TCS-08, TC formation, structure, intensification, satellite validation, targeted observations

3. Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY U.S. (NOAA) Winter NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s JapanPalau Typhoon Landfall EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] WMOWCRP/WWRPAsian/IndianMonsoon U.S.ONR/NSFTCS-08 [NRL P-3, WC-130] THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts SoWMex TH08 PROBEX Extra observations and targeted observations to improve track prediction Additional Targeting Component at DLR and FZK, Germany

4. Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY U.S. (NOAA) Winter NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s JapanPalau Typhoon Landfall EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] WMOWCRP/WWRPAsian/IndianMonsoon U.S.ONR/NSFTCS-08 [NRL P-3, WC-130] THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts SoWMex TH08 PROBEX Extratropical transition, downstream impacts, targeted observations Additional Extratropical Transition Components at DLR and FZK, Germany

5. Operations center, Monterey, CA Driftsonde center, Driftsonde Balloon release, Hawaii Aircraft locations, and aircraft operations centers Guam Japan Taiwan Okinawa THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) THORPEX (The Observing-System Research and Predictability Experiment) And Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments (TCS-08) Collaborative Efforts Operations and Observation Strategies

6. Mission objectives –NRL P-3 TC formation, structure, intensification, TUTT structure, targeting for formation, extratropical transition –WC-130J TC formation, structure, intensification, satellite validation, targeting for formation and track, extratropical transition –FALCON Typhoon targeting, extratropical transition, targeting, ridge-building, tropical water vapor transport –DOTSTAR Typhoon targeting Operations: Aircraft

7. Tropical Circulation Systems by the numbers… During August – September, there were 12 total systems > TD intensity over the western North Pacific –4 typhoons, 4 tropical storms, 4 TDs 51 TCS systems –With a few recycled a time or two 11 systems in which aircraft missions were flown –4 typhoons, 1 TD, 1 ex-TS, 5 others 72% of all missions were flown on the 4 typhoon cases –6 Nuri, 28 Sinlaku, 5 Hagiput, 15 Jangmi (54/75 = 72%)

8. Operations by the numbers… Over 500 aircraft mission flight hours –216 C-130, 179 P-3, 83 Falcon, 37 DOTSTAR 76 missions –25 Falcon, 23 C-130, 21 P-3, 7 DOTSTAR 7 airfields –Andersen AB, Guam; NAF Atsugi, Japan; Kadena AB, Japan; Taiwan, Yokota AB, Japan; MCAS Iwakuni, Japan; Misawa AB, Japan

9. Japan, Atsugi, NAF Okinawa, Kadena AFB T-PARC/TCS-08 Components Guam, Andersen AFB ET characteristics, forcing of downstream impacts, tropical/midlatitude interactions, extratropical cyclogenesis Extratropical Transition (ET – recurvature), Downstream Impacts Midlatitude operating region NRL P-3, FALCON TY Nabi, 29 Aug – 8 Sep, 2005 Large-scale circulation, deep convection, monsoon depressions, tropical waves, TC formation Tropical Measurements Tropical operating region Driftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130 Subtropical operating region Driftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130 TC track characteristics, tropical/midlatitude interaction TC Intensification and structure change Recurvature, initiation of ET

10. TY Sinlaku (TCS-033 / TD15W) 28 Missions 8 Structure –P-3, C-130, DOTSTAR 6 Targeting –Falcon 14 ET –P-3, C-130, Falcon Coverage 09/0030 – 09/1045 09/2100 – 10/1225 10/2043 – 11/1828 12/1138 – 12/2318 13/2330 – 14/0555 15/2135 – 16/0205 16/0500 – 16/0800 16/2044 –17/1115 17/2224 – 18/0720 18/2235 – 19/0725 20/0156 – 20/1206 20/2205 – 21/0205

11. First simultaneous observations of TY-core, TY-environment and distant sensitive region (“Sinlaku”) Joint mission of: Falcon (yellow) C-130 (black) DOTSTAR (red)

12. JMA Typhoon EPS 2008.09.09 06UTC ini +132h JMA Medium-Range EPS 2008.09.08 012UTC ini +216h EPS track forecasts ECMWF EPS 2008.09.08 12UTC +120h GFS EPS 2008.09.09 12UTC ini +168h Numerical Guidance Products

13. Sensitivity Guidance: Obs. Time 09/11 00Z ECMWFNOGAPSJMA UM ETKFUK ETKFCOAMPS

14. Sinlaku by NCEP GFS 9/10 00UTC AllObs BT NoObs 500 hPa ASYMMETRIC STREAMF’N DIFF 500 hPa ASYMMETRIC WIND DIFF +00 h +18 h Effect of drops: Strengthened vortex, decreased RMW Strengthened subtropical ridge, inducing northwestward flow Courtesy of S. Aberson

15. DOTSTAR AllObs Center All w/Cycle BT NoObs Center AllObs NoObs DOTSTAR All w/Cycle (Courtesy of Dr. Martin Weissmann) Sinlaku by ECMWF 9/10 00UTC

16. Rapid recurvature and moving Better track forecast at the beginning Red : With Drop ( Test ) Blue : Without Drop ( Cntl ) Black : JMA Besttrack 850-1000 hPa m/s 400-700 hPa m/s Test - Cntl Stronger wind (about +6m/s) (m) Difference in Z and Wind SINLAKU by JMA 9/11 12UTC AllObs BT NoObs

17. Impacts of Sondes differ in models Accepted/Rejected DS Data on 9/11 12UTC Not in Targeted Observation But maybe in the Systems (Analysis, Model) –First Guess –Assimilation of Data (accept/reject) near the TC center Data Quality near the center –DOTSTAR gives large impacts Better Quality around the TC Why? (Courtesy of Dr. Martin Weissmann) TC Rejected Data

18. Tropical Cyclone Intensity/Structure Changes, Extratropical Transition, and Downstream Impacts TY Sinlaku recurves to move east-northeast under strong westerly shear

19. Despite the strong shear, Sinlaku re- intensified to typhoon strength as the ET process initiated.

20. C-130 Falcon P-3 Aircraft missions for ET of Sinlaku on 5 consecutive days (3 days joint C-130, Falcon, P3 missions) 22 UTC 17 September – 08 UTC 18 September

21. ET Time Among ensemble members, standard deviation increased downstream of the Transitioning typhoon. Also, considerable variability existed among forecast sequences of downstream development as defined by local eddy kinetic energy budget calculations

22. Firsts First four plane operation in a WPAC TC First systematic targeting operation in the WPAC –Comparison of several methods from a variety of operational and research organizations –Multiple aircraft –ECMWF/UKMO Data Targeting System First systematic observations of full extratropical transition process –Multiple aircraft, land-based radar, MTSAT rapid-scan winds –Timed with satellite overpass First operation of WC-130Js at 31,000 ft altitude except when penetrating a mature TC –Dropped sondes and AXBTs from high altitude –Timed with passage of polar-orbiting satellites for satellite intensity validation First buoy drop in front of a WPAC TC –Two TCs –First time a category 5 TC passed over buoys dropped in its path

23. Firsts First operation of the Driftsonde in the Pacific –Launch from Hawaii –Dropsonde data retrieved and sent to GTS for use in operational numerical weather forecasting models First use of the ELDORA radar in typhoons over the western North Pacific flight operations in: –Cloud clusters –Developing tropical cyclones –Mature tropical cyclones –Tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition First Doppler wind and DIAL lidar observations for typhoon targeting and during extratropical transition

24. Summary Anomalous weather conditions to start –Non-existent monsoon trough –Anomalous low-level easterlies –Weak wave activity and strong upper-level cold lows (TUTT) dominated throughout August –1 typhoon –However, many aircraft missions conducted for TC formation, wave structure, TUTT structure, subtropical cyclone development Active September –3 typhoons (1 super typhoon, i.e. cat 5) –2 recurvature tracks Successfully addressed all science objectives in field phase

25. Future Data Management –Distributed archive structure (http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/tparc_2008/ or http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp )http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/tparc_2008/ http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp –Aircraft dropwindsonde, flight-level data, FALCON lidar (wind and DIAL) QC complete and data available on data catalog –P-3 Lidar near complete; Driftsonde data being examined Research Strategies –Diagnostic Studies of tropical cyclone formation, intensity, structure changes, extratropical transition, and downstream impacts –Validation of satellite-based estimates of tropical cyclone intensity and structure –High-resolution modeling: Assimilation of Doppler radar/lidar data Tropical cloud cluster characteristics and TC formation hypotheses Extratropical transition processes –Predictability Systematic evaluation of targeting techniques Data impact studies Analysis of ensemble prediction systems