1. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CETEMPS, Physics Department, University of L‘Aquila http://cetemps.aquila.infn.it Marco Verdecchia CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources 3° ICTP Workshop on “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 2006

2. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources Developed by: Since 2002 It runs in any geographical domain with any resolution It runs in any (?) unix platforms It does not use any licensed software Different kind of rain data are assimilated

3. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Two reasons for NOT using CHYM: NOT easy to use (CHyM is a NSE2USE Model) Documentation is not (yet) available CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources

4. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Outline Description of the model Algorithms Generating streamflow network Building prec. fields with diff. data Physical processes Applications CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources

5. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources Why to develop a new Hydrological Model? It has been thought for operational purposes It is a good “exercise ”

6. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources Step 1: generating streamflow network from DEM DEM matrix for the selected domain and resolution is generated Flow direction matrix is computed Validation “Pits” and singularities are corrected

7. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 DEM is available with a resolution of 300 m For each cell the slope is computed as: Runoff direction Max slope

8. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: Drainage network test

9. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: Drainage network test

10. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 A Cellular Automata definition A cellular automaton is a discrete dynamical system A cellular automaton is a discrete dynamical system Space, time and states of the system are discrete quantities Space, time and states of the system are discrete quantities Each point in a regular spatial lattice, called a cell, can have anyone of a finite number of states Each point in a regular spatial lattice, called a cell, can have anyone of a finite number of states The state of the cells in the lattice are updated according to a local rule The state of the cells in the lattice are updated according to a local rule All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously

11. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 A Cellular Automata application Life rules by Chris G. Langton  The status of each CA can be ON or OFF  If more than 3 CA in the neighborhood are ON CA became OFF  If less than 2 CA in the neighborhood are ON, CA became OFF  Otherwise CA became ON

12. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CA for CHyM applications CHyM grid is considered an aggregate of cellular automata CHyM grid is considered an aggregate of cellular automata The status of a cell corresponds to the value of a The status of a cell corresponds to the value of a The state of the cells in the lattice is updated according to following rule The state of the cells in the lattice is updated according to following rule All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously Update ends when flow scheme is OK Update ends when flow scheme is OK CHyM matrix (DEM)

13. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: Recipe for DEM pit correction Smooth DEM using CA rules until FD can be obtained for all the cells Generate streamflow network using smoothed DEM Use “true” DEM and modify ONLY the cells draining toward an higher cell

14. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: Drainage network test

15. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources

16. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9

17. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: DEM pit correction

18. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: DEM pit correction

19. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: DEM pit correction

20. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: Examples of Drainage Network Extraction

21. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: the Rolling Stones Algorithm (RSA) 2. Each time that the stone goes through one cell for this cell a counter is incremented by 1 1.Starting from each cell a stone rolls up to the river‘s mouth 3. If a quantity A is associated to each stone where A is equivalent to the surface where the stone was at the beginning, for each cell it can be computed the upstream drained surface 4. If a quantity R is associated to each stone where R is equivalent to the precipitation where the stone was at the beginning, for each cell it can be computed the upstream drained precipitation

22. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: the Rolling Stones Algorithm (RSA)

23. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Museo Archive MM5 analysis MM5 Forecast Now time RadarGauge data Satellite estimations Step 2: Building Precipitation Fields using different Data Sources

24. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM rain data sources: Gauge measurements

25. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM rain data sources: Radar estimates

26. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 NERETIR NEural Rainfall Estimation from Termal InfraRed CHyM rain data sources: NERETIR

27. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 MM5 Meteorological Model CHyM rain data sources: MM5

28. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Step 2: Building Precipitation Fields using different Data Sources Module 1 Module 2 Module 3 Module n Define subdomain Fill cells corresponding to rain gauges Fill subdomain matrix – Cr. Formula Smooth subdomain matrix using CA algorithm

29. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CA for CHyM applications CHyM grid is considered an aggregate of cellular automata CHyM grid is considered an aggregate of cellular automata The status of a cell corresponds to the value of a CHyM matrix The status of a cell corresponds to the value of a CHyM matrix The state of the cells in the lattice is updated according to following rule The state of the cells in the lattice is updated according to following rule All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously Update ends when flow scheme is OK Update ends when flow scheme is OK But cells corresponding to rain gauges or defined in a previous Module are not updated Update ends when a stable state is reached Update ends when a stable state is reached (RAIN)(DEM)

30. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Observed rain using Cressman algorithm + smoothing using Cellular Automata r ij ≤ a

31. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 + MUSEO module using Cressman + CA

32. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 In sequence …

33. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM Rain field sources: an example

34. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources Runoff Evapotraspiration Infiltration Rainfall For each cell the simulated processes are:

35. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: Infiltration Soil moisture storage Deep percolation Infiltration Interflow Surface Runoff

36. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: Evapotraspiration Thornthwaite Formula (Thornthwaite and Mather, 1995)

37. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: Runoff Continuity equation Momentum equation A= cross sectional area of the river Q= flow rate of water discharge q c = rain for length unit S= slope 1/R= wetter perimeter n= Manning‘s roughness coefficient

38. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 R i = rain A i = drained surface AI= Alarm Index CHyM: A first application

39. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9

40. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources Soverato Flood simulation

41. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources Val Canale flood simulation

42. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: simulation of Aug 22-23 2005 event Flood alert mapping using MM5 and CHyM

43. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: simulation of Aug 22-23 2005 event Flood alert mapping using MM5 and CHyM

44. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: simulation of Aug 22-23 2005 event

45. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Landslides prediction using CHyM. (Very) Preliminary results Daily precipitation from 1958 to 2002 Total drained rain in the last N days Landslides occur when TDR-N is greater than LT (N and LT values to optimized)

46. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources

47. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources

48. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Landslides prediction using CHyM. (Very) Preliminary results

49. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Landslides prediction using CHyM. (Very) Preliminary results

50. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Landslides prediction using CHyM. (Very) Preliminary results

51. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 Landslides prediction using CHyM. (Very) Preliminary results

52. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: hydrological effects due to Alpine Glaciers Melting

53. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources For further information about the model and related literature please visit the URL: http://cetemps.aquila.infn.it/chym/

54. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 CHyM: an operational distributed hydrological model using different data sources

55. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9