1. Analyzing Demand of E-Learning Professor: Dr. Kimiagary Student: Arman Daneshvaran

2. The Economic of Education ► History  USA  1960  Theodore Schultz

3. The Economic of Education ► Subjects  Human Capital  Performance Rate  Human resource expectations  Cost of education  KPI  Market for teachers & Students

4. Agenda ► Problem Definition ► Targets of research ► Research Stakeholders ► Iran today’s condition ► Problems of research ► Designing Model ► Validating Model ► Conclusion

5. Agenda ► Problem Definition ► Targets of research ► Research Stakeholders ► Iran today’s condition ► Problems of research ► Designing Model ► Validating Model ► Conclusion

6. Problem Definition ► What are Our Problems in learning?   High level of demand for learning in Iran.   The capacity of learning Institute can not satisfy demand of learning in all over The country.   There are poor restrictions where learning service is not available.   Request to learn for people who have no time to attend in Learning institute.   Traditional methods for learning are inefficient and time consuming. They can not receive feed back from work area and change thyself dynamically.

7. Problem Definition It should be sensitive enough to receive feed Back from environment. It has no limitation in time, distance and number of learner By using of new technologies, it should improve learning process It should be flexible enough to update itself by new expectations Solution

8. Problem Definition ► E- Learning may be good solution for these problems, but how? ► What are the advantages and disadvantages of this solution? ► Which Factors constraint our ability to design and implement efficient learning system?

9. Problem Definition E-Learning LMS Multi agent LCMS Web Base Advantage: No limitation in time, distance & location disadvantage: It is not possible to every learner having Access to internet Advantage: No limitation in time, distance & location disadvantage: It is not possible to every learner having Access to internet Advantage: Unlimited capacity for leaner! disadvantage: Cost of production Needing to high technology Advantage: Unlimited capacity for leaner! disadvantage: Cost of production Needing to high technology Advantage: Flexibility Content management! disadvantage: Cost of production Needing to high technology Advantage: Flexibility Content management! disadvantage: Cost of production Needing to high technology Advantage: Improve learning process. disadvantage: Cost of production Needing to high technology Advantage: Improve learning process. disadvantage: Cost of production Needing to high technology

10. Agenda ► Problem Definition ► Targets of research ► Research Stakeholders ► Iran today’s condition ► Problems of research ► Designing Model ► Validating Model ► Conclusion

11. Targets of research ► Identifying effective factor on demand of E-Learning. E-Learning. ► Develop model to estimate demand of E- Learning. E- Learning. ► Finding the solutions for extending E-Learning.

12. Agenda ► Problem Definition ► Targets of research ► Research Stakeholders ► Iran today’s condition ► Problems of research ► Designing Model ► Validating Model ► Conclusion

13. Research Stakeholders ► E-Learning Portal Producer  Market expectations  Expected Income ► Learning Institute  Learning Plan  Investment ► Government  Strategic Planning

14. Agenda ► Problem Definition ► Targets of research ► Research Stakeholders ► Iran today’s condition ► Problems of research ► Designing Model ► Validating Model ► Conclusion

15. Iran today’s condition ► There is no master plan to develop E-Learning. ► People are not familiar with E-Learning and its functionalities. ► Just few universities and institutes deliver E-Learning services. E-Learning services. ► There is not basic infrastructure for E-Learning.

16. Agenda ► Problem Definition ► Targets of research ► Research Stakeholders ► Iran today’s condition ► Problems of research ► Designing Model ► Validating Model ► Conclusion

17. Problems of research ► There is no enough data for statistical analysis.  There is not aggregated data from all centers.  There is not validated reference for data gathering.  The number of data gathering periods are less than expected number for statistical analysis.  …

18. Problems of research ► Analyzing a country with similar conditions. ► What conditions:  Cultural  Population  Development  GNP  Available data for research ► The reference of research are:  Internet ( Educational website)  Magazines

19. Problems of research NameDataCulturePopulationDevelopmentGNP MalaysiaMLHLL UAEMMLLL TurkeyMHHHH 1. L: Low 2. M: Medium 3. H: High

20. Problems of research NameDataCulturePopulationDevelopmentGNP TurkeyMHHHH

21. Agenda ► Problem Definition ► Targets of research ► Research Stakeholders ► Iran today’s condition ► Problems of research ► Designing Model ► Validating Model ► Conclusion

22. Data gathering ► Model Time scope:  1998 – 2006 ► Frequency of data gathering  Semi-annual ► Model boundaries  Turkey

23. Designing Model Demand of E-Learning Average of learner’s age Number of Internet users E-Learning Average cost Demand of Learning E-Learning performance

24. Explicative Variables Total Demand Of Learning E - Learning Traditional Learning Capacity Cost Time & Distance Efficiency Knowledge Restrictions

25. Explicative Variables Demand of Learning Population GNP Learning performance Learning Services

26. Explicative Variables

27. E-Learning Average cost Fixed Cost Portal Content Policy Private Sector E - Learning Delivery Variable Cost Note: The increase in demand may lead to decrease the price of E- learning! Note: The increase in demand may lead to decrease the price of E- learning! Government

28. Explicative Variables

29. Learner point of view Market point of view Learning process Job Opportunity Wage Performance of E – learning graduated E-Learning performance Note: The affection of advertisement on performance of e- learning Note: The affection of advertisement on performance of e- learning

30. Explicative Variables

31. Feasibility Expense Culture Quality Number of Internet users

32. Explicative Variables

33. Average of learner’s age Free Time Use of Internet

34. Explicative Variables

35. Developing Models First Model : Y = C(0) + C(1) * X1 + C(2) * X2 + C(3) * X3 + C(4) * X4 + C(5) * X5 Second Model: Y = C(0) + C(1) * X1 + C(2) * X2 + C(3) * X3 + C(4) * X4 Third Model: Y = C(1) * X1 + C(2) * X2 + C(3) * X3 + C(4) * X4 Fourth Model: Y = C(1) * X1 + C(2) * X2 + C(3) * X3 + C(4) * X4 + C(5) Y(-1)

36. Theoretical Model Demand of E-Learning = + C 1 (Demand Of Learning) + C 2 (E-Learning average cost) + C 3 (E-Learning performance) + C 4 (Number of Internet users)

37. Analytical Model E-Views Result Of Equation

38. Analytical Model Actual, Fitted, Residual Graph

39. Linear Regression Model Hypotheses ► E (u i ) = 0  E (u i ) = 0.0000428, i = 1, 2, 3, …, 17 ► E (u i u j ) = 0  Park Test ► E (u i u i ) = σ 2 u  Graph  λ 1 X 1 + λ 2 X 2 + λ 3 X 3 + λ 4 X 4 0

40. Conclusion ► Regression is not suitable approach for this problem because:  E-Learning Mark is not balanced so we should modeling for short term, but the interval between data is so long.  The past data can not support future theories for modeling.  As result of the complexity of problem, we can not ignore the interrelationships between variables.

41. System Dynamics Casual Diagram

42. Thanks for your attention & patient