2. Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas What Does It Mean For Principals? Future Forces And School Staffing Moving Forward

3. Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas Moving Forward What Does It Mean For Principals? Future Forces And School Staffing

4. Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas Centralized control Empowered periphery Direction of Change Stable professions Dynamic, entrepreneurial ones One size fits all Custom fit Proprietary knowledge Collectively generated knowledge Computer Labs Pervasive, media-rich learning * KnowledgeWorks Foundation, Map of Future Forces, 2006

5. Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas * KnowledgeWorks Foundation, Map of Future Forces, 2006 Explosion of Learning Agents Deep Personalization Unbundling of Education Open Source Curriculum Global Trade in Pedagogy Standards -- Personalization Supporting Teachers’ Rights -- Changing Teachers’ Roles Digital Natives -- Digital immigrants

6. Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas What Does It Mean For Principals? Future Forces And School Staffing Moving Forward

7. The First Reality: Teacher Attrition The First Reality: Teacher Attrition

8. Trends in Teacher Attrition

11. Generation XGeneration Y

12. Beginning Teacher Attrition is a Serious Problem

13. Teacher Turnover Is Increasing 16.8% 16.5% 15.7% 15.1% 20.2% 15.9% 2000-012004-05

14. Teacher Leavers Better in current position Better in teaching

15. Consequences of Teacher and Principal Churn Average School Principal experience at current school ? Teacher experience at current school? 4 years 43.6% have 3 years or less

16. Teacher Turnover is Expensive -- High turnover schools struggle to improve teaching quality and rarely close the student achievement gap because they are constantly rebuilding their staff. $ 7.3 Billion A Year NCTAF 2007

17. Teacher Turnover Can Be Reduced Teacher Preparation – strong content knowledge coupled with intensive clinical practice experiences. School Culture – extensive induction support in a collaborative team environment. Professional Growth Opportunities – continuous and embedded in the day-to-day work of the school. NCTAF.ORG 2007

18. The Second Reality: Teacher Retirement The Second Reality: Teacher Retirement

19. Public School Teacher Age Distribution (2003-2004) Total Teachers 3,250,625 (Public Schools) Less than 40 1,338,039 = 41.2% (Gen X & Y) Between 40 & 58 1,732,134 = 53.3% (Boomers) Over 58 180,462 = 5.6% (Veterans)

20. Age Distribution of Public School Teachers # of Teachers Age

21. Dangerous Demographics……. Loss at the front-end: novice teachers Loss at the end-end: retiring teachers

22. A School Staffing Tsunami Teacher Attrition + Teacher Retirement = The Great Wave by Hokusai 1832

23. VETERANS (63 plus) (Silent Generation)  38 Million Americans  Respect experience  Duty before pleasure  Eager to conform to group roles  Equate age with status and power  See change as disruptive and undesirable

24. BABY BOOMERS (43-62)  76 million Americans  Enjoy and value teamwork  Want to get with the program  Are willing to go the extra mile  Have good people skills  Embrace equity and fairness  Like to receive credit and public recognition  Less flexible when it comes to change  Retiring but want to stay engaged

25. GEN-XERS (26-45)  39 million Americans  Technical savvy and creativity  Work best with members of their own choosing  Self-reliant, skeptical of authority  Embrace alternative workplace structures  Prefer informal roles and freedom to complete tasks their own way  Willing to challenge higher ups  Core of the work force —but the trough in the teaching chart!

26. NEXTERS (25 and under) GEN Y or MILLENNIALS  Diversity as a norm  Idealistic  Collaborative  Communication is constant  Open to new challenges  Prefer a flattened hierarchy  Wired – grew up digital  Should be replacement for retiring teachers

27. Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas Moving Forward …. from Teaching 1.0 to Teaching 2.0 Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas Moving Forward Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas Moving Forward Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas What Does It Mean For Principals? Future Forces And School Staffing

28. Teaching 1.0: Stand and Deliver  Expect new teachers to work as solo practitioners, without support in self-contained classrooms.  Assume we can improve schools one teacher at a time.  Assume recruitment, hiring and replacement practices of the past will work today.  Assume new teachers are making a lifetime commitment to replace retiring teachers.  Invest all our efforts at the front end in preparation and hiring with little attention to ongoing professional development and career advancement.  Expect all teachers to do essentially the same job throughout their careers. Teaching Alone In a Flat World

29. From Dr. Kildare to Medical Teams

30. From Perry Mason….to Legal Teams

31. From Superheroes to Super Teams

32. From Flash Gordon to NASA

33. From the Stand Alone Teacher of the 1950s…

34. …to the Stand Alone Teacher of the 21 st Century

35. What Does It All Mean? Time to think differently…..

36. Teaching is a Team Sport  Multiple teaching roles, positions, and levels of expertise coming together in cross-generational teams.  Staged options for transitioning within the profession: part-time positions, mentors, coaches, job-sharing, team leaders, tutors, digital media specialists, etc.  Blended face-to-face and online teaching & learning created and led by teachers who are learning experts. (Bricks and Clicks Schools).  Shared responsibility for the success of all students. When educators join forces, they can improve learning beyond what any of them can accomplish alone! In Teaching 2.0…

37. Multigenerational Teams Create Genuine Learning Organizations  Collaboration replaces solo teaching in self- contained classrooms.  Modularized and personalized.  Constant communication and assessment to improve teaching and learning.  Digital technology is fully exploited.  A user driven learning economy.

38. Hotspots! Deep Personalization Explosion of Learning Agents Expanded Learning Economy Media-Rich Pervasive Learning VUCA Communities ?

39. Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas * KnowledgeWorks Foundation, Map of Future Forces, 2006 Explosion of Learning Agents Deep Personalization Unbundling of Education Open Source Curriculum Global Trade in Pedagogy Standards -- Personalization Supporting Teachers’ Rights -- Changing Teachers’ Roles Digital Natives -- Digital immigrants

40. Suggested Resources “Building a 21 st Century U. S. Education System” (available at www.nctaf.org)www.nctaf.org KnowledgeWorks Foundation, “Map of Future Forces” (available at www.kwfdn.org)www.kwfdn.org NCTAF web site – www.nctaf.orgwww.nctaf.org

41. 2100 M Street, NW Suite 660 Washington, DC 20037 202-429-2570 Karen Smith, Chief Operating Officer ksmith@nctaf.org WWW.NCTAF.ORG