2. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Vulnerability Assessment and Case Studies Neil Adger and Nick Brooks Tyndall Centre and CSERGE School of Environmental Sciences, UEA AIACC Training Workshop on Development and Application of Integrated Scenarios in Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Assessments, April 2002

3. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Purposes Review concepts of vulnerability and adaptive capacity Review methods, data, and scenarios (climate and social) required for vulnerability assessment Case example of vulnerability and the social science required

4. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Defining terms Vulnerability is a function of: Exposure to climatic hazard resulting from climate variability and change Sensitivity – degree to which a system is affected by climate stimuli Adaptive capacity – ability of a system to adjust and take opportunities

5. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI INDICATORS Measuring vulnerability

6. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Vulnerability of whom and to what? Vulnerability is context specific – we measure the vulnerability OF a particular system, region or group TO a specific hazard, impact or outcome

7. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI We can measure the vulnerability of a population group to drought (hazard) or famine (outcome) an agricultural system to drought (hazard) a coastal area to sea-level rise (hazard) or flooding (impact) a country to global climate change

8. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Risk and vulnerability? risk = hazard x vulnerability This definition views vulnerability as socially constructed, not dependent on the geographical distribution of climatic or other threats Here we are essentially talking about social vulnerability to discrete phenomena. Vulnerability to climate change is a prior state

9. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Social vulnerability Depends on a system’s capacity to adapt to change Is inversely related to adaptive capacity (but may depend on factors such as sensitivity) Is a useful concept when assessing the vulnerability of a clearly defined group or system to a specific threat

10. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Hazard distribution The likelihood that a system will be damaged by global climate change is highly dependent on (changes in) the distribution of hazards, as well as its vulnerability. Should we define vulnerability more widely to incorporate the distributional effects of climate change – overall as opposed to social vulnerability? i.e. are we really interested in risk?

11. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Overall vulnerability Wider definition – overall vulnerability is a function of 1.Exposure/hazard (climate threats) 2.Sensitivity (result of existing adaptation) 3.Adaptive capacity (ability to adapt in future) Develop indicators for these 3 categories

12. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Risk = hazard * (social) vulnerability Overall vulnerability = f (exposure, sensitivity, AC) equivalent to

13. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Indicators of exposure to hazard Measure probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging (climatic) event We might use –Historical climate-related disaster frequency (assuming “more of the same”) –Model projections of either event frequency or suitable proxies for probability of occurrence (e.g. SSTs) –Weighting by event severity in addition to above

14. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Historical climate-related disasters, world (from CRED EM-DAT data)

15. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Sensitivity indicators Measure degree to which a system’s physical attributes expose it to physical impacts of hazard –E.g. geographic location of settlements (flood plain, hillslope, quality of housing) –E.g. health of a population at onset of drought Sensitivity related to coping range, robustness, resilience Socially, geographically and environmentally constructed

16. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Adaptive capacity (AC) indicators Capture the following components of AC: 1.resources available for adaptation 2.ability of people to deploy those resources 3.willingness to undertake adaptive measures –AC socially constructed but may be environmentally or geographically constrained; depends heavily on socio- economic, political and institutional factors.

17. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Resources determining adaptive capacity Financial and natural capital Availability of labour, skills, knowledge (human capital) Access to technology Access to markets (e.g. income diversification) Distribution of resources – poverty, inequality, equity issues

18. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Available resources – possible proxies Financial capital – income per capita, inequality indices, GDP Natural capital – groundwater, cultivable land, energy sources, sustainability Human capital – literacy, level of education, preservation of traditional knowledge (e.g. land management), number of graduates in science, particularly in climate/environment field Technology – investment in research & development, renewable and clean energy sources, Markets – accessibility, openness of foreign markets, trade balances

19. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Deployment of resources Does infrastructure allow people to undertake adaptive measures? Does policy inhibit or encourage adaptation, or encourage maladaptive practices? Social capital – how do people use formal and informal networks to their advantage?

20. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Helping or hindering adaptation Building codes & tax (dis)incentives – proxy: percent of (new) settlements in vulnerable areas (maladaptation) Economic policy – does it encourage migration to vulnerable areas? Proxy: numbers migrating Self-determination – do external factors such as debt and structural adjustment programmes undermine or constrain adaptive measures? Proxies related to debt impacts Overall policy environment – proxies: percentage of policies that explicitly incorporate measures to adapt to climate change; number and degree of support for agencies involved in vulnerability assessment or adaptation programmes.

21. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Willingness to adapt Do social or cultural factors encourage or inhibit adaptation (e.g. resistance to change)? –Proxy: percentage of population adopting available no- or low-cost adaptive measures subsidised by government –People may be sceptical about government sponsored adaptation schemes if they don’t trust government, or assume hidden costs

22. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Data sources Hazards: disaster data from CRED: http://www.cred.be/emdat/ (frequency, numbers killed and otherwise effected, etc)http://www.cred.be/emdat/ Exposure: e.g. Environmental Vulnerability Index (SOPAC): http://www.sopac.org.fj/Projects/Evi/ http://www.sopac.org.fj/Projects/Evi/ Adaptive capacity: Human Development Report & Indicators: http://www.undp.org/hdro/ http://www.undp.org/hdro/ World Development Indicators from World Bank on CD-ROM ($275 / $550) http://www.worldbank.org/data/http://www.worldbank.org/data/ Above data at national level – higher resolution data from national agencies or through collection of new data. Vulnerability mapping projects

23. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Web links 1. http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/tar/wg2/ - Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IPCC).http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/tar/wg2/ http://www.fivims.net/ - Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping Systems.http://www.fivims.net/ http://www.grid.unep.ch/ - UNEP Mapping Natural Hazards Occurrences and Vulnerable Populations.http://www.grid.unep.ch/ http://www.sopac.org.fj/Projects/Evi/index.html - SOPAC Environmental Vulnerability Index.http://www.sopac.org.fj/Projects/Evi/index.html http://www.sei.se/risk/workshop4.html - Stockholm Environment Institute International Workshop on Vulnerability and Global Environmental Change.http://www.sei.se/risk/workshop4.html http://www.fao.org/docrep/W5849T/w5849t09.htm - Food and Agriculture Organisation - Establishing a food insecurity and vulnerability information and mapping system (Ezzeddine Boutrif).http://www.fao.org/docrep/W5849T/w5849t09.htm http://www.oas.org/en/cdmp/bulletin/hazmap.htm - Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project, Hazard Mapping and Vulnerability Assessment Workshop.http://www.oas.org/en/cdmp/bulletin/hazmap.htm http://www.clarklabs.org/10applic/risk/start.htm - Applications of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Technology in Environmental Risk Assessment and Management. See especially Chapters 2, 3 and 4.http://www.clarklabs.org/10applic/risk/start.htm http://www.sopac.org.fj/nuke/article.php?sid=20 - EU/SOPAC project – Reducing Vulnerability of Pacific States.http://www.sopac.org.fj/nuke/article.php?sid=20

24. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Web links 2. http://ns2.resalliance.org/pub/www/Journal/vol5/iss1/art19/ - ecological indicatorshttp://ns2.resalliance.org/pub/www/Journal/vol5/iss1/art19/ http://www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/IHDPUpdate0102/viewpoint.html - vulnerability, Kasperson viewpointhttp://www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/IHDPUpdate0102/viewpoint.html http://www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/IHDPUpdate0102/article7.html - vulnerability and African groundwater resources articlehttp://www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/IHDPUpdate0102/article7.html http://www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/index.html - International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Changehttp://www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/index.html http://www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/vulnerability.htm - IHDP workshop report (Assessing Vulnerability to Global Environmental Risks)http://www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/vulnerability.htm

25. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Case study of vulnerability Present day vulnerability to climate variability in coastal Vietnam What are the determinants of social vulnerability? Study scope – what is vulnerability and how measured? Methods – in assessing vulnerability what do social scientists do?

26. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Defining vulnerability to hazards Vulnerability is the set of characteristics of a group or individual in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from the impact of a natural hazard.It involves a combination of factors that determine the degree to which someone’s life and livelihood is put at risk by a discrete and identifiable event in nature or society. (Blaikie et al. 1994 p. 9) Vulnerability is essentially about the human ecology of endangerment... and is embedded in the social geography of settlements and land uses, and the space or distribution of influence in communities and political organisation. (Hewitt, 1997, p 143)

27. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Vulnerability indicators

28. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Characteristics of vulnerability and their measurement Vulnerability indicator Proxy for: Vulnerability mechanism Measured by Poverty Marginalisation Narrowing of coping strategies; undiversified livelihoods; lack of empowerment. Material or experiential poverty measures. Inequality Degree of collective responsibility, informal and formal insurance and underlying social cohesion Direct: concentration of available resources in fewer hands. Indirect: inequality to poverty links. Quantitative measures of distribution of assets and entitlements. Institutional adaptation Mechanisms for collective security; political institutions constrain or enable adaptation. Responsiveness, evolution and adaptability of all institutional structures. Study of decision- making, social learning and inertia.

29. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Why does underlying vulnerability change? – the Vietnam context Changing social and political processes Rapid economic growth Rapid demographic change Future change in climate risks

30. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Climate variability observed – Vietnam’s landfall typhoons 1900-1995

31. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Location of Xuan Thuy case study area, northern Vietnam

32. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Farming system – Xuan Thuy

33. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Changing poverty and inequality as indicators of vulnerability

34. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI How are inequality and vulnerability related?

35. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Institutional adaptation observed Coastal defence in the reform Re-emergence of civil society for collective security Spontaneous adaptation through mangrove rehabilitation

36. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Coastal defences, Giao Thuy District

37. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Collective action for water management

38. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Labour movements for coastal defence

39. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Vulnerability trends INCREASING vulnerability 1 Increasingly skewed incomes 2 Increasing reliance on aquaculture 3 Reduction in collective action by Communes DECREASING vulnerability 1 Decreasing poverty 2 Civil society collective action 3 Spontaneous adaptation and mangrove replanting

40. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Vulnerability analysis - lessons Vulnerability to climate variability is a dynamic social process Current vulnerability is a good proxy for near- future vulnerability policies implications – ways to ameliorate vulnerability –equitable land and resource allocation –effective evolution of collective action

41. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Links between scenarios and vulnerability assessment Social vulnerability – different parameters and scenarios for different spatial scales Vuln. as a fn (Exp., Sens., Adapt. Cap.) Vulnerability scenarios more appropriate for near future / shorter time-scales