1. Multi-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption 1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006 Marianne Thomsen Multi-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption

2. Boundary conditions of the Risk Problem ElementBoundary Target Human in general Condition for exposure Private households Substances to be considered 145 chemicals; the majority from the list of already assessed chemicals under EU* Other stressors No 1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006 Marianne Thomsen Multi-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption *Of the 145 substances included, 78 have already been risk assessed, 63 are on the EU priority list but have not yet been subjected to a thorough risk assessment, 4 substances are top scores in the Danish NIR, but not included in the four EU priority lists of substances.

3. The System Model for the private consumption scenario Problem Specification Model (PSM) Problem Tree mapping 195 single sub-problems to be addressed in the household risk scenario Scenario Composition Model (SCM) Selection of fraction of sub-problems considered the most important ones biased by data availability Criteria Model (CM) Approximating sub-problems by criteria usage and toxicity category data Scenario Selection Model (SSM) Criteria data values are used as input parameters in order to identify the most problematic substance/-s and derived from this the most serious circumstances for risk assessment 1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006 Marianne Thomsen Multi-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption

4. Problem Specification Model (PSM) Qualitative model 1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006 Marianne Thomsen Multi-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption Problem Tree mapping 195 single sub-problems as part of the household risk scenario H u m a n H e al th E x p o s ur e R el e a s e In d u st ri al P ro c e s si n g C o n s u m er pr o d u ct s P er s o n al c ar e C ol o ur in g S ki n c ar e H ai r c ar e C le a ni n g S c e nt P ai nt in g / C ol o ur in g In d o or P ai nt in g P ri nt er s/ C o p yi n g O ut d o or H o u s e h ol d d et er g e nt s ’I n d o or O ut d o or P e st c o nt ro l OnhumansOnhumans N ot o n h u m a n s In d o or O ut d o or S ol v e nt s V ar io u s F o o d a d di ti v e s S ol id pr o d u ct s O ra l c o nt a ct S ki n c o nt a ct C o nt a ct to fo o d / dr in ki n g it e m s In d o or u s e / Ai r c o nt a ct s O ut d o or u s e/ Ai r c o nt a ct P ro p el la nt s P h ar m a c e ut ic al s HumanusageHumanusage V et er in ar y u s e A gr ic ul tu re A q u a c ul tu re F u el In te r m e di at e V e nt il at io n S ol id w a st e W a st e w at er P ro d u ct io n V e nt il at io n S ol id w a st e w a st e w at er T ra n s p or t T ru c k S hi p T ra in Pi p e F at e E xt er n al b o d y D e gr a d at io n S oi l F re s h w at er W at er c ol u m n S e di m e nt M ar in e W at er c ol u m n S e di m e nt Ai r In d o or O ut d o or Bi ot a T er re st ri al A q u at ic T ra n s p or t O ut d o or B et w e e n c o m p ar t m e nt s s e di m e nt / w at er s e di m e nt / fr e s h w at er s e di m e nt / m ar in e s oi l / w at er S oi l / ai r Ai r / w at er ai r / m ar in e w at er ai r / fr e s h w at er W it hi n c o m p ar t m e nt s D e gr a d at io n S e di m e nt F re s h w at er M ar in e S oi l W at er F re s h w at er M ar in e w at er G ro u n d w at er D is p er si o n/ c o n v e ct io n Ai r W at er F re s h w at er M ar in e w at er ´ G ro u n d w at er B et w e e n c o m p ar t m e nt s/ Bi ot a T er re st ri al S oi l/ Bi ot a Pl a nt a ni m al F re s h w at er /( bi ot a pl a nt a ni m al Ai r/ bi ot a pl a nt a ni m al A q u at ic S e di m e nt Pl a nt A ni m al W at er c ol u m n Pl a nt A ni m al W it hi n Bi ot a T er re st ri al A q u at ic B et w e e n o ut - / in d o or ai r b or n w at er b or n e In d o or / ai r B o d y e nt ra n c e in h al at io n in d o or v a p o ur p ar ti cl e s o ut d o or v a p o ur p ar ti cl e s In g e st io n fo o d v e g et a bl e s m e at dr in ki n g o p e n s o ur c e gr o u n d w at er s ur fa c e w at er p a c ki n g d er m al In te rn al b o d y p er si st e n c y s e cr et io n E ff e ct s T o xi c a ct io n A c ut e eyeeye br ai n lu n g vi s c er a n er v e s ki n C hr o ni c G e n et ic di s or d er C ar ci n o g e ni ci ty lu n g br e a st c ol or e ct al le u k a e m ia R e pr o d u ct iv e di s or d er s lo s s of fe rti lit y M al e fe m al e C hi ld re n h e al th di s or d er m e nt al ly p h y si c al ly n e ur o d e v el o p m e nt al E n d o cr in e di sr u pt io n C ar ci n o g e ni ci ty i m m u n e di s or d er DAMPDAMP le ar ni n g di s a bi lit y A ut is ti c di s or d er lo s s of fe rti lit y m al e fe m al e al le rg y s ki n re s pi ra to ry V ul n er a bi lit y h e al th st at u s in fe ct io n b a ct er ia vi ra st re s s ageage c hi ld re n ol d p e o pl e G e n et ic al ly P h y si c al st re s s st at u s n oi s e p ar ti cl e s U V ra y s

5. Scenario Composition Model 1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006 Marianne Thomsen Multi-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption Human Health Exposure Release Industrial Processing Consumer products Personal care Painting / Colouring Household detergents Pest controlSolventsVarious Fate Body entrance InhalationIngestion Effects Toxic action AcuteChronic Neuro- developmental Disorder Genetic disorder Carcinogenicity Endocrine disruptor Carcinogenicity

6. Criteria Model Ordinal model for each sub problem 1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006 Marianne Thomsen Multi-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption Cr1 Cr2 Cr3 Cr5 Cr6 Cr7Cr8Cr9Cr10 Cr4 SPIN data DEPA QSAR Product Category Model EU Classification & Labelling Toxicity criteria approximations: Cr1 quantified by R20,R23,R26 (harmful, toxic and very toxic by inhalation), Cr2 by R22,R25,R28 (harmful, toxic and very toxic by oral intake), Cr3 by R39, R48 (danger of very serious irreversible effects, danger of serious damage to health by prolonged exposure) and Cr4 by R45,R46 (may cause cancer, may cause heritable genetic damage)

7. Scenario Selection Model Ordinal model for risk level Multi-criteria model by use of Partial order ranking methodologies Highest risk scenarios due to private consumption Set of criteria Cr1 to Cr10 Value uncertainty Multi-attribute uncertainty 1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006 Marianne Thomsen Multi-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption

8. 1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006 Marianne Thomsen Multi-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption Hasse Diagram including only realised positions in the Event Space, i.e. the 145 VOC and semi-VOC substances Cr(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10) = [0,0,0,0,1,1,1,1,1,1] Cr(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10) = [1,1,1,1,0,1,1,1,1,1]

9. Substances closest related to the top ranked substance (Id 94, benzene) represent the set of highest concern substances Reference substance: Id 94, benzene, Cas No.: 71-43-21111011111 Number of common values of unity IdNameCas No.Cr1Cr2Cr3Cr4Cr5Cr6Cr7Cr8Cr9Cr10 8124stoddard solvent**8052-41-3 1011011111 719Toluene108-88-3 1010011111 7302-butoxyethanol*111-76-2 1100011111 785solvent naphtha**64742-88-7 1010011111 7101Methyloxirane75-56-9 1101011011 64Ethylbenzene*100-41-4 1000011111 684,4'-methylenedianiline101-77-9 1111010001 620Phenol108-95-2 1110010011 6107hydrogen peroxide7722-84-1 1100001111 *Substances one of the priority lists, but have not yet been risk assessed **Substances not on the EU priority list

10. 1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006 Marianne Thomsen Multi-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption Hasse Diagram visualising the Event Space constructed based on the Cr1 to Cr10 Grey circle represents non-realised objects, the numbered white circles the 145 VOCs and semi-VOCs Id´s representing groups of equivalent substances: Id 1(29), Id 6 (2), Id 9 (12), Id 10 (3), Id 13 (6),Id 15 (3), Id 16 (2), Id 18 (5), Id 19 (2)Id 35 (5), Id 36 (6), Id 47 (2), Id 49 (2), Id 60 (2), Id 68 (5), Id 102 (2)

11. 1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006 Marianne Thomsen Multi-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption Probability distribution of ranking levels for each single substance Case 1Case 2Case 3 Id 30: Cr(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10) = (1,1,0,0,0,1,1,1,1,1) 2-butoxyethanol 111-76-2 All criteria equally important Cr1-Cr4 > Cr 5-Cr10 Cr3-Cr4 > Cr1-Cr2 > Cr5-Cr19

12. 1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006 Marianne Thomsen Multi-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption Case 1Case 2Case 3 Mean Ranking Estimate for the individual substances All criteria equally important Cr1-Cr4 > Cr 5-Cr10Cr3-Cr4 > Cr1-Cr2 > Cr5-Cr19

13. Some simple observations concerning the test scenario Acute inhalation (Cr1) Acute ingestion (Cr2) Chronic (Cr3) Generic disorder (Cr4) Personal care (Cr5) Paint and colouring (Cr6) House hold detergent (Cr7) Pest control (Cr8) Solvents (Cr9) Various (Cr10) 4347181766639242038 The majority of the 145 substances are ranked in the lower of the risk scenario ranking i.e. having criteria values of “1” on less than 50% of the ten criteria 57 of the 145 substances have no or little relevance in relation to indoor exposure sources 28 chemicals of the 78 risk assessed chemicals at EU level, and 30 of 63 the not yet risk assessed chemical, have no criteria values of “1” on the exposure estimator criteria, Cr5 to Cr10, for private consumption in households

14. Additional facts! The absolute top candidate, i.e. highest risk chemical, is benzene Except for 2-butoxyethanol and ethylbenzene, all top candidates are have positive scores on the chronic toxicity criteria Two top candidates, i.e. solvent naphta and stoddard solvent, are not on the EU priority lists of chemicals. –These are examples of top scores in the Danish emission inventory with an indicated high frequency of use in private household conditions having criteria values of 1 on all exposure estimator criteria except for Cr5, personal use. Both are acute toxic by inhalation, Cr1, and show potential for chronic and irreversible health effects, Cr3. Two top candidates, i.e. 2-butoxyethanol and ethylbenzene, have not been subjected to RA at EU level but are on the priority lists. –These substances show no chronic toxicity related to Cr3 and Cr4. Both substances have a high frequency of use in terms of consumer product categories.

15. The methodological Approach The System Model –increases awareness of boundary conditions of the risk problems hypothesis driven approach Ignorance –increases awareness uncertainty induced by delimitations of the problem three approximation of sub-problems by criteria –increases awareness data availability and aggregation level of the scenario description The Multi Criteria Ranking model –Input parameters / criteria values are binary thus only able to take one out of two possible values as “high” or “low” which makes it possible to define an Event Space that includes all possible criteria data values. which makes it possible to identify substances that have the same criteria data value combination –the possibility of defining relative criteria importance prior to object ranking –the ability of quantifying multi-attribute uncertainty

16. Thanks!