1. GAINS databases Links and interactions with the international reporting processes UNECE TFEIP/EIONET meeting Dublin, Ireland, 23-24 October, 2007 Z.Klimont EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)

2. Outline What is GAINS? What data is stored in GAINS? What is the origin of data? Where is GAINS?

3. GAINS A tool to analyze synergies between air pollution and GHGs GAINS: GHG-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies Extension of RAINS integrated assessment model for air pollution to GHGs CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFC, PFC, SF 6 in addition to SO 2, NO x, VOC, NH 3, PM Country-by-country, 43 regions in Europe, up to 2030

4. Multi-pollutant/multi-effect analysis for identifying cost-effective policy scenarios SO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 PM HealthAcidificationEutrophication Ozone Policy targets IIASA’s RAINS computer model

5. The GAINS approach for identifying cost-effective emission control strategies (GHG-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies ) SO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 PM HealthAcidificationEutrophication Ozone Policy targets on air quality IIASA’s GAINS optimization model GHGs Policy target on GHG emissions

6. Uniform or effect-based scenarios?

7. Optimization Linear optimization of air pollution control strategies in RAINS/GAINS: Objective: minimize (Costs) s.t. EnvEffect k < Limit k Minimize costs, such that environmental effects do not exceed pre-defined limits (there are additional technology constraints, e.g. –maximum application rates –vintage structure –etc)

8. RAINS optimization: –Decides how far to move up the cost curve (keep underlying activity fix!) –Exclude multi-pollutant technologies GAINS optimization –Decides which technology to use (incl. multi-pollutant) –If cost-effective and possible, change the underlying activity (through e.g. efficiency improvement) Differences between GAINS and RAINS in the optimization (technology representation)

9. What data is stored in GAINS? (1) Not emissions! However, emissions reported to UNECE and UNFCCC are used for validation purposes and create the basis for further exchange to resolve discrepancies.

10. What data is stored in GAINS? (2) Activity data –energy use, –industrial production, –livestock numbers, –fertilizer use, –waste production, –vehicle numbers, –etc. Activity data parameters –shares of specific combustion installations, –manure management systems, –Vintage data –etc. Emission factors (direct input)

11. What data is stored in GAINS? (3) Parameters for calculation of emission factors –sulfur and ash content, –N-excretion, –sulfur and ash retention, –fuel volatility, –PM size speciation, –solvent content –etc. Reduction efficiencies of abatement options Cost parameters of abatement measures and constraints on their application Actual and projected penetration rate of control technology Pollutant transfer coefficients - originate from EMEP MSC-W Critical loads – originate from CCE

12. What is the origin of GAINS data? [activities and activity parameters] Historical (1990,1995,2000, 2005) –Statistics (IEA, Eurostat, FAO, IFA, EFMA) –Communication with national experts (consultations) –UNECE and UNFCCC submissions, –Industrial data (consultations CEPE, EFMA, other) –Models (PRIMES, TREMOVE, CAPRI), –Literature studies, and –Own assessments Forecasts (until 2030) –Communication with national experts (consultations) –UNECE and UNFCCC submissions, –Industrial data (consultations), –Models (PRIMES, TREMOVE, CAPRI, FAO, EFMA), –Literature studies

13. What is the origin of GAINS data? [emission factors and ef parameters, reduction efficiencies and costs of abatement]] Guidebooks (CORINAIR/EMEP, AP-42, BUWAL) UNECE Expert Groups National submissions (consultations) International databases, e.g., CEPMEIP Industrial associations Peer-reviewed literature Grey literature Own expertise

14. Scope and timing of bilateral consultations (NEC) IIASA met with representatives of 22 countries and 6 industrial associations Meetings took 45 days over a period 25 March – 23 November 2005 127 national and industrial experts participated Information collected/verified: –National scenarios up to 2020 for energy, transport, agriculture, industrial processes, and VOC sources –Emission factors and other country-specific parameters –“Current legislation” penetration of emission control technologies, potential for further controls and their costs Exchange of information till mid-September 2006

15. Where is GAINS? The background information available from: Home of GAINS: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/ The GainsWeb on line model: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/apd/gains/EU/index.login The GAINS documentation: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/gains-methodology.html The GAINS review: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/review.html