1. Climate Change and Ecosystems IV Presidential Meeting CGDD & IFHC Sao Paulo, Brazil March 7, 2009 Thomas E. Lovejoy Biodiversity Chair, The Heinz Center Washington, D.C. THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT

2. Dr. Svante August Arrhenius 1859-1927

3. Source: Wallace Broecker Analysis of a Greenland ice core oxygen isotope proxy

4. Image Courtesy of NASA

6. © WWF-Cannon / Jurgen Freund

7. Mountain Pine Beetle outbreaks (1959-2002) Courtesy of Mike Bradley, Canfor Corporation

8. Science Magazine, November 23, 2007 IPCC Climate Change and Impact Projections

10. What is a “safe” level? James Hansen, et al., 2008 350 ppm

11. Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions (2000-2007) Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated) 1.5 Pg C y -1 + 7.5 Pg C y -1 Atmosphere 46% 4.2 Pg y -1 Land 29% 2.6 Pg y -1 Oceans 26% 2.3 Pg y -1

12. Natural CO 2 Sinks absorb 55% of all Emissions 55% discount on human- induced climate change. A subsidy to the global economy worth half a trillion US$ annually if an equivalent sink had to be created (eg, EU- Emission Trading Sch.). Canadell and Raupach 2008, Science

13. R.A. Houghton, unpublished Emissions from Deforestation minus Reforestation Pg C yr -1 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 1850186018701880189019001910192019301940195019601970 1980 19902000 Africa Latin America S. & SE Asia Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change SUM 2000-2007 (Pg C y -1 ) 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.6

14. % CO 2 Emissions in Atmosphere 1960 2000 19801970 1990 Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 2006 Decline in the Efficiency of CO 2 Natural Sinks Fraction of all anthropogenic emissions that stay in the atmosphere Emissions 1 tCO 2 400Kg stay Emissions 1 tCO 2 450Kg stay Growth rate trend: 0.23% y −1

15. Efficiency of Natural Sinks Land Fraction Ocean Fraction Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

16. deforestation tropics extra-tropics 1.5 2000-2007 CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source Time (y) Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project (2008) PgC

17. deforestation fossil fuel emissions 7.5 1.5 2000-2007 CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source Time (y) Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project (2008) PgC

18. fossil fuel emissions deforestation 7.5 1.5 2000-2007 CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source Time (y) Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project (2008) PgC

19. fossil fuel emissions deforestation 7.5 1.5 4.2 2000-2007 CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source Time (y) atmospheric CO 2 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project (2008) PgC

20. atmospheric CO 2 fossil fuel emissions deforestation ocean 7.5 1.5 4.2 2.3 CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source Time (y) 2000-2007 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project (2008) PgC

21. atmospheric CO 2 ocean land fossil fuel emissions deforestation 7.5 1.5 4.2 2.3 2.6 2000-2007 CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source Time (y) Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project (2008) PgC

22. Over the past three centuries, ecosystems have lost 200-250 billion tons of carbon

23. Long atmospheric residence times for greenhouse gases

24. Origin of land plants Expansion of angiosperms Present-day CO 2 The Role of Life Processes

25. Planetary Engineering Using Ecosystems CO2 PPM Time 280

26. The Role of Forests

27. Photo courtesy USDA NRCS Restoring Grazing Land

28. Photos: United States Department of Agriculture—Natural Resources Conservation Service. Restoring soil carbon through agriculture

29. Re-Greening the Emerald Planet