1. Welfare Reform Interventions: Employment Outcomes, 1990-03 Meta-Analysis of Controlled Studies: Social-Structural Characteristics, Rather Than Personal Ones, Ought To Be The Focus of Welfare Policies

2. Introduction Historical and Theoretical Contexts: 20 th Century Social Welfare Policy Developments & Recent Reforms

3. Recent Historical Context Early to Mid-1990s Consistent with conservative political agendas Problem: Guaranteed incomes act as a significant work disincentive. Solution: Policy reforms ought to focus on shaping the behaviors of individuals.

4. Distal Historical Context 1930s & 1960s: Economic & social upheaval Consistent with liberal political agendas Problem: Social, political and economic forces cause cycles of joblessness. Solution: Governments ought to respond to the resultant human suffering. Policies ought to focus on shaping the structures of society.

5. Diametrically Opposed Political Theories: Which is Valid? Conservative Theory Welfare benefits (dependence) cause labor market withdrawal (joblessness). Liberal Theory Joblessness causes welfare use (and dependence, if the primarily social determinants persist).

6. What of Social Science Theory? The Bell Curve Welfare dependence and related social problems are caused by personal, genetic, even racial factors. The Skewed Curve Welfare determinants are related to the inequitable distributions of opportunities (e.g., education, jobs). FOR MORE INFO... Herrnstein, R. J., & Murray, C. (1994). The bell curve. Wilson, W. J. (1996). When work disappears. (1987). The truly disadvantaged.

7. Meta-Analytic Test of Theories Joblessness  Welfare Joblessness  Fertility or Welfare  OOW Births  Teen pregnancy  Sole female HH Joblessness accounted for 25-fold more variability than did the availability and generosity of welfare benefits.

8. Research Questions: Another Meta-Analytic Test of Theories How important has the availability of jobs been in determining the success of various welfare reform interventions? Success = facilitating the movement of people from welfare to work

9. Method: Study Selection -Studies of any specific welfare reform policy intervention (AFDC/TANF) -Employment outcomes -1990 to the present -Published and unpublished -United States and Canada -Randomized and quasi-experiments -Power to detect a 5% difference -47 studies for meta-analysis

10. Augmentation of Meta-Database Each study sample was joined with its corresponding area unemployment rate. -US Dept. Labor, Statistics Canada -Seasonally-adjusted average quarterly rate over study follow-up periods -Rates calculated according to each study’s sampling frame: by states, counties or metropolitan areas

11. Analytic Methods Comparison of intervention and control/comparison groups on adjusted employment rates -Employment rates adjusted for study samples (Mantel-Haenszel) -Predictors of rate differences identified with regression models

12. Meta-Analytic Hypotheses Social-structural characteristics will significantly predict program success. 1.The availability of jobs in study areas will be significantly associated with the success of welfare reform interventions. 2.The programmatic availability of child care will be significantly associated with the success of welfare interventions.

13. Meta-Analytic Main Effect Overall weighted (by sample size) effect of specific welfare reform interventions: Aggregate Across-Study Employment rate Intervention group = 51% Control/comp. gp. = 47% Rate difference = 4%

14. Moderators of the Main Effect Available jobs in areas and programmatic availability of child care were both significantly associated with study employment rate differences (intervention vs. control/comp. groups). Adjusted rate differences Jobs = 18% Child care = 25%

15. Conclusion The availability of jobs ought to be emphasized as we reconsider welfare policies.

16. Politically Liberal Welfare Assumptions Better Fit Reality This study’s findings (along with he preponderance of historical social scientific evidence) support the notion that social-structural characteristics such as the lack of good jobs are far weightier explanations for welfare dependence and labor market withdrawal, as well as for most purported “welfare problems,” than are personal-behavioral ones.

17. Policy Implications in Diametric Opposition to Political Realities Human capital and economic developmental approaches, rather than personally punitive approaches are needed. Making good jobs available to all will require integrated multi-level social policies; not merely welfare policies per se, but also economic, education, and health care policies.

18. Policy Implications in Diametric Opposition to Political Realities Policy makers, however, seem headed down ‘the road most traveled.’ For example: Congress will probably fully reauthorization TANF during the coming year. -Freeze TANF benefits -Increase work requirements -Diminish supports such as child care -Restrict education/training programs

19. Future Research and Advocacy Ample sound evidence exists for the rationale steerage of future social welfare policies. Effective advocacy will be required to ensure that such decisions are not based on the mere ebb and flow of political tides.