1. The President III 2/16/2012

2. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – understand and interpret the United States Constitution and apply it to the present (the sections on the presidency and Electoral College). – assess the 2008 & 2012 Presidential Elections without resorting to partisan bickering. – identify and explain the role of formal and informal institutions and their effect on policy.

3. Office Hours and Readings Readings- Chapter 10 on the Bureaucracy Office Hours – Today 11-2 – No office hours on Monday

4. THE WAY TO BECOME PRESIDENT Winning the Electoral College

5. Who the Electoral College Helps Big States Small States Swing States

6. It helps the president

7. Who Does it Hurt Third Parties Remote States Partisan States

8. WINNING THE ELECTION It is not rocket science!

9. Electoral College Do’s and Don’ts DO Treat the Race as 51 separate elections Win Your Home State Win your V-P’s State Don’t Spend time where you can’t win Spend time where you will win Spend time in remote areas

10. Ignore Popular Votes and Focus on the Map

11. Focus on the Swing States These are the states that matter The Electoral College is Winner take all Obama wins 10 of 11 swing states in 2008

12. Spend!

13. Avoid The October Surprise

14. RUNNING THE NUMBERS IN 2012 The Electoral College Still Favors the Democrats

16. President Obama Will be Tough To beat The Last incumbents who lost were – 1992 – 1980 – 1976 President Obama has no primary challenger The President plans to spend 1 billion dollars

17. A Republican Win: Step 1

18. A Republican Win Step 2

19. A Republican Win Step 3

20. A Republican Win Step 4

21. REFORMING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE Not Bloody Likely

22. A National Popular Vote How it Would Work Advantages

23. A National Popular Vote Disadvantages Unanticipated Consequences

24. THE CONSTITUTIONAL BASIS OF PRESIDENTIAL POWER Not that Great

25. The Founders Vision There needs to be an executive The balance between impotence and tyranny The office has outstripped this vision

26. The Formal Powers are Limited Serve as administrative head Lead the armed forces Appointment, pardons and treaties Give a speech Call emergency

27. The Modern Responsibilities are Not The President is now the dominant branch It performs many new functions We expect the president to solve the world’s problems!

28. USING OTHER POWERS Presidential Success

29. The President Constitutional powers are – Vague – Limited The Demands of the Office are Great Presidents must then use all the tools at their disposal

30. The Vice President Picked for different purposes Limited Constitutional Power At the discretion of the President Can be a liability http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hZtW_q_6Ug&feat ure=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hZtW_q_6Ug&feat ure=related

31. Why did McCain Choose Palin? Get space between himself and Bush Get someone who was not an old man Get someone to appeal to the conservative base McCain loses no matter who he picks

32. Executive Stuff Executive Orders Carry the weight of law Must be on a single issue Cannot require new revenues Die when the president leaves Executive Agreements Bilateral agreements with other nations Carry the weight of a treaty Not that great of a power The Senate hates these

33. The Veto The “Smart Bomb” in the legislative process Most vetoes are sustained Can be overused Threats work better

34. INFORMAL POWERS Politics by other Means

35. The Power to Persuade Richard Neustadt Presidential Power is the Power To Persuade

36. Persuasion What is Persuasion You have to convince them by what ever means necessary Getting Decision makers to do what you want – The Johnson Treatment

37. Getting things Done: Trading Favors Prestige of the office Granting New Favors Calling in Past Favors

38. Getting Things Done: Reprisals Monetary Threats Campaign Threats Policy Threats

39. Why Persuasion Fails Threats are Not Credible Favors are not worth it Electoral Security and temporal forces

40. Why President Obama is Currently having difficulty persuading Republicans do not want to compromise Democrats are already on board The Election is getting close

41. Everything is inside