1. Automated Vehicles:
The technology that will change our mobility experience
Ryan Lanyon
Program Manager, Transportation Services
City Toronto
ACT Canada Sustainable Mobility Summit
December 3, 2014

2. American futurist, innovator, author, and co-founder of the Global Business Network (GBN)
“There will come a time when driving a car is like riding the horse. Some people will still like to do it, but most of us won’t.” – Peter Schwartz

3. Themes The Vehicle The Changing Trip Experience
Impacts on Mobility Choices
Considerations for Municipalities
TDM Efforts

4. Levels of Automation 0. No Automation Function-specific Automation
e.g. automatic transmission, cruise control
Combined Function Automation
e.g. automatic parking, adaptive cruise control with lane centering
Limited Self-Driving Automation
e.g. the driver is available, but can cede control
Full Self-Driving Automation
e.g. there is no human driver, nor is a passenger required
Level 2 – also collision avoidance
Source: US Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

5. Driver as a Passenger
- Video is part of Volvo’s “Drive Me Project” to have 100 AVs test driving on 50km of roadway in Gothenburg, Sweden by 2017
Video modified from:

6. Time Nature of work and workplace continues to evolve
Will ‘telework’ now include work done in the car?
Will this open the door to greater acceptance for work done on transit?

7. Inside the Car
Note in video – adjustment of seat to switch from automated to manual driving
INTERIOR
Driver faces other passengers
Wouldn’t it be nice to have a table?
More leg room
Decouple the dash - iPad
EXTERIOR
Wider?
Higher?
Placement of doors?

8. An Extension of the Home?
How difficult will it become to convince people to leave their cars at home?

9. The Promise of Safety
One of the biggest barriers to active transportation is perceived danger from automobiles
[NEED TORONTO STATS ABOUT DRIVER BEHAVIOUR]
AVs could create safer environments for pedestrians and cyclists
E.g. minimum passing distance

10. Levels of Automation 0. No Automation Function-specific Automation
e.g. cruise control
Combined Function Automation
e.g. adaptive cruise control with lane centering
Limited Self-Driving Automation
e.g. the driver is available, but can cede control
Full Self-Driving Automation
e.g. there is no human driver, nor is a passenger required
Disruptive
Source: US Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

11. Total Automation
“Automation could be the catalyst that brings together personal mobility and public transportation,” - Sven Beiker, of the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford (CARS).
Source:
Disruptions
Transit, taxis, auto ownership, school buses
New markets – those who could not drive
Displacement of old technology and patterns
Full automation leads to a fork in the road
Will the future model for mobility continue to be automobile ownership, or will it migrate to transportation as a service? Or both?

12. Total Automation Two directions Impact on transit
Continued/increased auto-ownership
Customized cars for different needs
Further extension of your personality
Decreased auto-ownership
Multiple commuting trips, shared use
Automated vehicles as taxis
Impact on transit
Compact urban environment – virtually none
Suburban low-density environment – complete overhaul

13. Auto Ownership Model
Cost of parking at work > cost of return trip to home
Car + Driver
If we substitute AVs for our current fleet, then we will likely experience an increase in trips
- rational decision to look at the cost of parking at work vs. marginal cost of a return trip to free parking at home
Without ride-sharing, there will be no environmental benefit – more VKT
Driverless
Car
passenger
no passenger
no passenger
passenger

14. Trends in Mobility Patterns
Repopulating the core
Reduced interest in auto ownership
Increased diversity in modal choice
Increased use of sustainable modes
Greater acceptance of technology
Mobile technology and mobility options
No more “one-size-fits-all” model
Popularity of ride-sharing services like Lyft, Uber

15. Reduced Auto Ownership?
The real change with AVs will come with a change in auto ownership
Move to ‘Transportation as a service’ model

16. Reduced Auto Ownership
Elimination of sunken investment
Potential models
Subscription with unlimited use
Membership fee with per-trip pricing based on volume
Per-trip pricing
Time-based pricing?
Customization of the experience
Vehicle
Seat adjustment, environment, entertainment
- We know the biggest determinant in mode choice is auto ownership
we’ve seen evolving pricing models through internet-based services such as high-speed access and entertainment content
Near-field communication will store and transit user preferences to the vehicle, as it adjusts to your preferred conditions

17. A Service for All

18. AVs: Other Applications
Commercial operations – freight
Municipal operations – transit, service vehicles (plows, waste disposal, street sweeping), emergency vehicles, automated enforcement

19. Challenges Social Acceptance Regulatory Acceptance
Public Transit – Leave the driving to someone else
Automated and Connected Vehicles – Leave the driving to something else
Early adoption: Commercial and freight vehicles?
Regulatory Acceptance
Liability
Appropriate decision-making and driving behaviour?
Speed limit vs. average travel speed
Will people be comfortable leaving the driving to a computer, potentially susceptible to outside override and control?
UK Department for Transport to start testing social acceptability of driverless cars – among other road users like motorcyclists, cyclists, peds, horse riders

20. Considerations for Municipalities
Engineering
Traffic systems
Geometry: redesign of streets; dedicated lanes?
Maintenance – where are the lanes?
Planning and parking requirements
Interior drop-offs?
Enforcement
Emergency vehicles
Connectivity?
Policies – will we shape the application of the technology? Will we respond and adapt?
What will be the role of the private sector?
How much automation will depend on V2V technology instead of V2I?
Dedicated lanes predicted in California in 10 years – mapping detail needed could be cause

21. Considerations in TDM The ‘spare time’ advantage will be reduced
How to encourage carpooling in a framework where transportation is sold as a service?
Importance of pricing to reduce transportation demand
Per trip?
Per unit of distance?
Per unit of time?
Peak period premiums?
Class of service? E.g. SOV or carpool

22. Transition Period

23. Acknowledgments CAVCOE and Conference Board of Canada
Transportation Research Board (TRB)
National Association of City Transportation Officials (NACTO)
Antoine Belaieff, Metrolinx
Stephen Buckley & Joey Reeder, City of Toronto

24. Thank You Ryan Lanyon Program Manager, Transportation Services
City of Toronto
@ryan_lanyon