1. Technical Session 4 – Model Development & Calibration 4.1 Calibration of the TRANS Model for the National Capital Region (Ottawa-Hull) Don Stephens P. Eng. Manager, Data Modeling and Forecasting Region of Ottawa Carleton Mark Campbell P.Eng. Senior Transportation Planner Maxim Morrison Hershfield TRANS/NCR 3 min 1995 Model Calibration 12min

2. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region  regions, transit authorities, provincial ministries and federal government  joint cooperation in areas of common interest  modeling  data collection

3. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region National Capital Region REGIONAL MUNICIPALITY OF OTTAWA-CARLETON MUNICIPALITÉ RÉGIONALE DE COMTÉ COLLINES-DE-L'OUTAOUAIS COMMUNAUTÉ URBAINE DE L'OUTAOUAIS NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION RMOC MRC CUO  POPULATION  1,100,000  EMPLOYMENT  540,000

4. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region Central Area  POPULATION  60,000  NON AUTO MODES  >55%  EMPLOYMENT  150,000

5. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region Traffic Zones/Screenlines HULL ALYMERGATINEAU ORLEANS KANATA OTTAWA BARRHAVEN Interprovincial Greenbelt Eagleson CNR West CNR East Green’s Cr Russell/417 CPR Rideau Central Rideau Nort h

6. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region Trips per Day Population Employment Dwelling Units 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 196019651970197519801985199019952000 Past Surveys OHATS ’63 871,000 ‘72 Survey 1,438,000 ‘77 Survey 1,569,000 ‘86 Survey 2,297,000 ‘95 Survey 2,720,000

7. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region 1995 NCR OD Survey Sept to Dec’95  Telephone Survey - 21,000 interviews/households - 56,000 persons - 145,000 trips - 145,000 trips - 5 to 20 % sample - 5 to 20 % sample TRANS Public Transit Cycle Auto Driver/Passenger Walk

8. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region TRANS MODEL 1995 CALIBRATION

9. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region 1995 TRANS MODEL INTER- ZONAL TRIPS MODAL SPLIT MODEL INTRA- ZONAL TRIPS ASSIGNMENT EXTERNAL TRIP TABLE OBSERVED MODE SPLIT PEAK HOUR FACTORS BY TRIP PURPOSE TRIP GENERATION (PM PEAK PERIOD) TRIP DISTRIBUTION

10. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region NETWORK INNOVATIONS Network outside Greenbelt expanded in detail Auto volume delay functions based on posted speed and road capacity Auto volume delay functions based on posted speed and road capacity Transit volume delay functions dependant on auto speeds along shared links Transit volume delay functions dependant on auto speeds along shared links Macros convert ultimate network to 1995 and 2021 networks Macros convert ultimate network to 1995 and 2021 networks

11. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region 45 800 50 convention is fd ( capacity/2 ) ( first digit of posted speed ) fd45 = 50 *60/(length*1.3 )* (1+.6 * ((volau + volad)/ (lanes* 800))^4) AUTO VOLUME DELAY FUNCTIONS PostedNominalCapacity.... Speed4006008001000 2022324252.... 3023334353.... 4024344454.... 50 25354555.... 6026364656.... 7027374757....

12. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region TRANSIT VOLUME DELAY FUNCTIONS ttf 70 = auto time on link * 1.6 ttf 70 = auto time on link * 1.6 (transit route shared with private vehicles) ttf 73 = auto time on link * 2.5 ttf 73 = auto time on link * 2.5 ( several CBD routes) ttf 71 = (length/15) * 60 ttf 71 = (length/15) * 60 ( bus only lanes with 15 kph along the roadway) ttf 72 = (length/48) * 60 ttf 72 = (length/48) * 60 ( transitway links with average speed of 48 kph) ttf 74 = (length/70) * 60 ttf 74 = (length/70) * 60 ( bus-only lanes along highways, average speed 70 kph)

13. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region Trip PurposeRegression Equation R^2 Work to Home Secondary School to Home PRODUCTION.446 * EMP(other) Ottawa and Hull central areas 0.97.390 * EMP(other) Ontario 0.94.433 * EMP(other)Quebec0.91 ATTRACTION.178 * POP 25-44 +.192 * POP 45-64 Ottawa and Hull central areas 0.97.348 * POP 25-44 +.258 * POP 45-64 Ontario 0.98.405 * POP 25-44 +.117 * POP 45-64 Quebec 0.99 PRODUCTION ATTRACTION.142 * OD_SCHS 0.59.07072 * POP 15-24 +.121 * POP 10 -14 0.77 TRIP GENERATION EQUATIONS EMP (other): total employment minus retail employment Pop 25-44: population in age cohort OD_SCHS: secondary school enrollment

14. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region Regression Equation R^2 Trip Purpose Post Sec_ Sch to Home Other to Home Non Home Based Leave Home PRODUCTION.117 * POST_SEC_ENROLLMENT 0.96 ATTRACTION.074 * POP15-24 +.0059 * POP25-44 0.83 PRODUCTION.052 * POP +.0711 * EMP + 1.947 * GLA 0.85 ATTRACTION.115 * POP 0.96 PRODUCTION.0542 * DWEL +.176 * EMP +.578 * GLA 0.93 ATTRACTION.0902 * EMP +.128 * DWEL + 1.69 * GLA 0.89 PRODUCTION.187 * DWEL 0.9 ATTRACTION.062 * EMP + 1.06 * GLA 0.57 TRIP GENERATION EQUATIONS CONT...

15. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region TRIP GENERATION (1995 LAND USE) Trip Purpose PM Peak Period Trips PM Peak Hour Factors PM Peak Hour Trips Work to Home Production 163,000 0.502 81,800 Attraction 162,00081,300 SSch to Home Production 16,600 0.224 3,700 Attraction 16,700 3,700 Post SSch to Home Production 9,000 0.347 3,100 Attraction 11,000 3,800 Other to Home Production 108,000 0.433 46,800 Attraction 110,00047,600 Non Home Based Production 108,000 0.440 47,500 Attraction 111,00048,800 Leave Home Production 70,000 0.400 28,000 Attraction 42,000 16,800 Total Production 474,600210,900 Attraction 452,700202,000

16. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region TRIP DISTRIBUTION MODEL Work to Home Gravity Gravity 2 Dimensional 2 Dimensional 4 Equations 4 Equations - Ontario to Ontario - Ontario to Quebec - Quebec to Quebec - Quebec to Ontario Remaining Trip Purposes Gravity Model, Same Style as the Work to Home Model

17. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region MODAL SPLIT MODEL 2 Modes 2 Modes - Auto Persons & Auto Vehicles - Auto Persons & Auto Vehicles - Transit - Transit Logit Model Logit Model - Work to Home (UTA) - Work to Home (UTA) - School to Home (UTA) - School to Home (UTA) Diversion Curves Diversion Curves - All Other Trips - All Other Trips

18. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region ModeTrip CostTotal Travel Time Number of Vehicles ProvinceConstant per Household Auto Person-0.008641-0.0096 Transit-0.008641-0.0096-1.738-0.83670.9091 Auto cost -- Consists of fuel consumption and a parking cost in cents. Transit fare -- Transit fare in cents Veh/household --Has three groups, 0 for no vehicle/hh, 1 for 1 vehicle/hh, 2 for more than 1 vehicle per household. Province -- 0 for Ontario and 1 for Quebec residents. Travel Time -- Time in minutes to travel from trip origin to trip destination. Changing the variables will in turn change the auto person modal split to... -6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6% 8% % Change in Auto Mode Split Auto Time +10% Auto Cost +10% Transit Time +10% Veh/HH from 1 to 2+ Transit Fare +10% HOME BASED WORK TRIP LOGIT MODEL

19. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region Mode Travel Time Number of Vehicles ProvinceConstant per Household Auto Person Transit -4%-3%-2%-1%0 %1 %2 % 3 % % Change in Auto Mode Split SCHOOL TO HOME LOGIT MODEL Out of Vehicle -0.0926-1.083-0.5272.85 Veh/household --Has three groups, 0 for no vehicle/hh, 1 for 1 vehicle/hh, 2 for more than 1 vehicle per household. Province -- 0 for Ontario and 1 for Quebec residents. Out of vehicle --0 for auto mode, For transit, total travel time less in vehicle travel time. Changing the variables will in turn change the auto person modal split to... Transit Out Of Vehicle Travel Time +10% Vehicle/HH From 1 to 2+

20. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region Auto Mode Split = 1.052 - 0.26 * (1/Transit / Auto Time) R^2=.91 Auto Person Trips 77,800 Transit Person trips 6,300 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.31.41.51.61.71.92.12.42.73.13.6 Transit / Auto Time Auto Mode Split Observed Linear (Observed) Auto Person Mode Choice Non Work Trips, UTA - (Auto Time 0-15 Min)

21. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region Auto Mode Split = 1.071 - 0.249 * (1/Transit / Auto Time) R^2=.71 Auto Person Trips 22,500 Transit Person trips 600 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00 Transit / Auto Time Auto Mode Split Observed Linear (Observed) Auto Person Mode Choice Non Work Trips, UTA - (Auto Time +15 Min) 1.61.71.81.92.02.12.2232.42.52.6 2.7

22. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region AUTO OCCUPANCY EQUATIONS Trips being ModelledEquationR Squared UTA* Work 1.25-.00259 * distance0.251 Other 1.25+.001186 * distance0.127 School 3.67-.7481 * ln(distance)0.84 OUTSIDE UTA** Work 1.071+.00275 * distance0.55 Other 1.296-.00187 * distance0.18 School 3estimated * UTA * UTA Trips with origin and destination in urban transit area ** Outside UTA Trips with origin and/or destination outside the urban transit area

23. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region MODAL SPLIT RESULTS (INCLUDES EXTERNAL TRIPS) TripTotal Persons PurposeTrips Work -OD Survey 78,800 Model 81,300 School -OD Survey 7,390 Model 7,430 Other -OD Survey 124,900 Model 125,900 Total -OD Survey 223,900 Model 227,500 Auto Person Trips 59,600 61,700 3,730 3,580 116,900 118,100 193,000 196,200 Auto Vehicle Trips 49,200 1,710 1,640 93,400 89,300 155,200 150,900 Transit Trips 19,200 19,600 3,670 3,850 7,960 7,860 30,900 31,300

24. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region 1995 PEAK HOUR ASSIGNMENT (Outbound - Model Vs. Observed Counts) Rideau River CPR Ottawa Central Rideau Canal Fallowfield Eagleson Green Creek CNR West/ Acres CNR East Western Parkway Leitrim/ Ramsayville 0600040002000800010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000 Model Overestimation Model Underestimation +6% 0% +17% +1% -1% -7% +15% -4% -17% -9% -12%

25. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region 1995 PEAK HOUR ASSIGNMENT (Outbound - Model Vs. Observed Counts) Rideau River CPR Ottawa Central Rideau Canal Fallowfield Eagleson Green Creek CNR West/ Acres CNR East Western Parkway Leitrim/ Ramsayville +31% +13% -3% -23% -4% +31% -11% -2% +17% +5% -40% Transit Auto Vehicle 0600040002000800010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000 Model Overestimation Model Underestimation +6% 0% +17% +1% -1% -7% +15% -4% -17% -9% -12%

26. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region Change in Demographics 1995 to 2021 Population (5 yrs and over) Dwelling Units Total Employment Gross Leasable Area (in 100 ft 2 ) +44% +50% +55% +40% 0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,000

27. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region 1995 and 2021 Travel Demand Total Auto Person Trips 040,00020,00060,000180,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000 Work Other +30% +55%

28. A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region 1995 and 2021 Travel Demand Total Auto Person Trips and Transit Trips 040,00020,00060,000180,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000 +120% +55% Transit Transit Auto Persons Work Other +30% +55%

29. Don Stephens P. Eng. Manager, Data Modeling and Forecasting Region of Ottawa Carleton Mark Campbell P.Eng. Senior Transportation Planner Maxim Morrison Hershfield QUESTIONS ? A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region

30. QUESTIONS ?