1. Modeling and Data Working Group
FEMA Lab and Analytics Workshop
July 2015

2. The MDWG project
Understand how data and models are used by the federal interagency emergency management community
Identify and characterize the data and models used to inform emergency operations: hurricanes, earthquakes, INDs
Perform network analysis to define gaps and identify linkages
Build an interactive inventory cataloging the resources
Develop decision support tools to translate event characterization and consequence analyses into operational requirements

3. Results overview
Home Page

4. Natural disaster resource networks

5. Network bridges: Natural disasters

6. Bulk flow of information

7. Most used resources Resources with the most federal agency users
Hazards
Resource Types
Descriptions
EAGLE-I 10
All-Hazards
situational awareness data
Monitors, aggregates, and displays energy system data
HSIP
raw data
Critical infrastructure and key resource data
SLOSH
Hurricane
event characterization models/analysis
Estimates storm surge heights
Turbo FRMAC
IND
consequence model; decision support tool
CBRNE assessment data analysis
HPAC 9
event characterization models/analysis; consequence model
Models CBRNE atmospheric dispersion and impacts
HAZUS
Multi-Hazard
consequence model
Estimates economic impacts of select natural disasters
NHC Forecasts
Predicts hurricane intensity and track

8. Project findings and gaps
Lack of operations-focused resources
Consequence modeling output libraries
Rapid-run models with outputs designed for operations
Would provide decision support and concrete mission specific requirements
Operations-focused resources poorly connected to real-time event data
Lack of emergency response modeling for operations

9. The ESFLG Model and Data Inventory
Inventory currently hosted on an internal FEMA server
Hosting on an external FEMA site in progress
Code can be ed and launched locally
Goal of inventory:
Discovery tool for steady-state planning
Real-time RFIs for events

16. Keeping the inventory useful
Utility of the Resource Inventory:
Additional scenarios: flood , biological, cyber
Robust, on-going hosting and maintenance
Interagency access
Use during exercises: Train around the resources available

17. Data and models for operations:
ESF-specific decision support tools
Home Page

18. Decision support tools for ESF-specific missions
Operationally relevant calculations
Simple, easy-to-use, and tailored for operational users
Linking calculations for each ESF to a single set of inputs/assumptions
Testing a tool for FEMA-specific ESF #6 and ESF #7 requirements

19. DST for ESF #6 and ESF#7: in beta

20. Unified inputs: Affected Population

21. Unified inputs: Distribution Centers

22. ESF #6: Mass Care Outputs

23. ESF #7: Logistics Outputs

24. Courses of action and next steps
Develop real-time operational consequence and response modeling/analysis tools
May be available through national labs
Involve operations personnel in development
Develop decision support tools that translate the existing data into operationally-relevant information
Expand the inventory to include additional hazards
Flood, biological scenarios, cyber

25. Points of contact Josh Dozor, MDWG Chair Director, Planning Division
FEMA Response Directorate
Eric Soucie, Project Lead Future Planning
FEMA Response Directorate
Eric.
Ellie Graeden, PhD
Gryphon Scientific
(cell)