1. PRBO Conservation Science Adapting to Sea Level Rise along the North Bay Shoreline June 28, 2012 | 8:30 am – 12:30 pm

2. PRBO Conservation Science Applied Bird and Ecosystem Science to Advance Conservation for Wildlife and People Founded in 1965 140+ staff and seasonal biologists Using birds and other species as indicators of change

3. PRBO Conservation Science PRIORITY: Reduce Impacts of Environmental Change on Ecosystems & Enhance Capacity to Adapt Tuna Matt Jalbert CLIMATE CHANGE

4. PRBO Conservation Science Workshop Purpose Solicit management information needs for analyses that could be completed by PRBO Conservation Science using our online decision support tool to plan for and respond to sea level rise along the North Bay shoreline.

5. PRBO Conservation Science Workshop Objectives To gain an understanding of… Management questions related to sea level rise that could be addressed through the use of our decision support tool. Adaptation, restoration, and/or management planning actions related to sea level rise and storm hazards underway or being considered, and their geographic extent. Stakeholders’ processes for planning for sea level rise and storm hazards and how to best integrate decision support tools.

6. PRBO Conservation Science Project overview Assess stakeholder information needs Assess vulnerabilities to sea level rise Assess conservation priorities and opportunities to use natural habitat to buffer human infrastructure from impacts of sea-level rise and increased storm intensity Adapt web-based decision support tool (www.prbo.org/sfbayslr) to effectively deliver these results.

7. PRBO Conservation Science Project Extent

8. PRBO Conservation Science Project Timeline TaskJun-12Aug-12Sep-12Jan-13 Stakeholder workshops, identify data gapsx Acquire and synthesize missing dataxx Preliminary results, user feedbackxx Website beta version, user feedback x Final website, workshop, final recommendationsx Present findings to NBWA Board x

9. PRBO SLR Tool www.prbo.org/sfbayslr

10. PRBO Conservation Science Historic marshes were diked off Agriculture, salt production, development Levees now breached to restore tidal marsh Background- Changing Landscape Sonoma Baylands Diked Baylands Restored marsh

11. PRBO Conservation Science Tidal Marsh Bird Project © Peter LaTourrette Nur and Wood, unpublished © VIRE O Began in 1996 Status and trends of tidal marsh birds Identify important habitat features

12. PRBO Conservation Science Tidal Marsh Bird Project © Peter LaTourrette 2050 ? ? © VIREO Nur and Wood, unpublished Began in 1996 Status and trends of tidal marsh birds Identify important habitat features How will changing climate affect bird populations?

13. PRBO Conservation Science Challenges in projecting the future of marshes No Baywide marsh response to sea-level rise “Bathtub” SLR models not appropriate for dynamic tidal marsh systems Lots of uncertainty

14. PRBO Conservation Science Vermeer and Rahmstorf, PNAS 2009 1.9 m A few words about uncertainty 0.18 to 0.59 m Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) ­does not include ice sheet contributions 0.5 to 1.9 m Rahmstorf (Science, 2007)/ Vermeer and Rahmstorf (PNAS, 2009) ­relates sea level rise to mean surface temperature 0.8 to 2 m Pfeffer et al. (Science, 2008) ­constrained by observations of ice sheet dynamics 5 m Hansen (Environ. Res. Lett., 2007) ­non-linearity, amplifying polar feedbacks- ‘albedo flip’ ­sea level was 75 m higher at ~50 Ma ­at 5 Ma, sea level was ~25 m higher, but only 2-3 o C warmer (A2 emissions scenario is 4.5 o C warmer) Patrick Barnard, USGS 5 m

15. PRBO Conservation Science Tool development Elevation

16. PRBO Conservation Science Tool development Elevation Subregional scenarios Suspended sediment Organic accumulation

17. PRBO Conservation Science Tool development Elevation Subregional scenarios Suspended sediment Organic accumulation Sea-level rise From National Research Council, adopted by ACOE

18. PRBO Conservation Science Peer Reviewed Publication Evaluating tidal marsh sustainability in the face of sea-level rise: a hybrid modeling approach applied to San Francisco Bay Stralberg, D., M. Brennan, J.C. Callaway, J.K. Wood, L.M. Schile, D. Jongsomjit, M. Kelly, V.T. Parker, and S. Crooks. PLoS ONE 2011 (http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0027388)http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0027388

19. WWW.PRBO.ORG/SFBAYSLR

20. PRBO Conservation Science Results – summary of key findings Models are sensitive to sediment and sea level rise scenarios but not organic accumulation We project increases in tidal marsh habitat in all scenarios except for low sediment/ high sea level rise (93% of mid and high marsh lost) Up to 7,500 ha (current) and ~32,500 ha (future sed high/slr low) of diked baylands have restoration potential. Up to 3,300 ha of uplands could become marsh by 2100. Sediment-rich areas have better prospects for long-term sustainability.

21. PRBO Conservation Science Changes in Plant and Bird Distributions Common Yellowthroat Clapper Rail Song Sparrow Black Rail Marsh Wren

22. PRBO Conservation Science Changes in Plant and Bird Distributions Common Yellowthroat Song Sparrow Black Rail Marsh Wren +15 Tidal Marsh Plant Species Clapper Rail www.prbo.org/sfbayslr

23. PRBO Conservation Science © VIRE O How will tidal marsh birds respond to future scenarios? We used our bird observations with marsh accretion results to model tidal marsh bird response to sea level rise, including changes in salinity

24. PRBO Conservation Science Tidal marsh birds are also sensitive to scenarios Percent change Year © VIREO

25. PRBO Conservation Science Example question 1: Restoration Prioritization Example question: Will planned restoration projects be resilient/ successful with sea level rise? Example decision: Some projects are resilient to sea level rise, others will require adaptive management.

26. PRBO Conservation Science Example question 2: Upland marsh migration Example question: Where should we promote marsh migration into currently upland habitat? Example decision: We can look at where upslope migration of marshes does not conflict with alternative land uses

27. PRBO Conservation Science Example question 3: Ecosystem services Example question: Where does tidal marsh habitat provide flood protection? Where will assets become vulnerable due to loss of habitat? Example decision: Loss of ecosystem services could increase vulnerability to flooding. Actively managing for tidal marsh habitat could increase asset protection.

28. PRBO Conservation Science