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The Challenge from India Dr. Brian W Tempest Chief Mentor & Executive Vice Chairman of the Board Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited, Delhi, India Zurich – October.

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Presentation on theme: "The Challenge from India Dr. Brian W Tempest Chief Mentor & Executive Vice Chairman of the Board Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited, Delhi, India Zurich – October."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Challenge from India Dr. Brian W Tempest Chief Mentor & Executive Vice Chairman of the Board Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited, Delhi, India Zurich – October 2006

2 Except for the historical information contained herein, statements in this presentation and the subsequent discussions, which include words or phrases such as “will”, “aim”, “will likely result”, “would”, “believe”, “may”, “expect”, “will continue”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “contemplate”, “seek to”, “future”, “objective”, “goal”, “likely”, “project”, “should”, “potential”, “will pursue” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions may constitute "forward-looking statements". These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to our ability to successfully implement our strategy, our growth and expansion plans, obtain regulatory approvals, our provisioning policies, technological changes, investment and business income, cash flow projections, our exposure to market risks as well as other risks. Ranbaxy does not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date thereof. Disclaimer

3 Asia’s Share of the World GDP (at PPP in %) Year 1870 1913 1950 1973 2001 China 17% 9% 5% 5% 12% India 12% 8% 4% 3% 5% Japan 2% 3% 3% 8% 7% Rest of Asia 7% 5% 7% 9% 13% Total Asia 38% 25% 19% 25% 37% Source – WEF - was 59% in 1820 with India 16%, China 33%

4 1.India+84% 2.Pakistan+75% 3.Korea+54% 4.Philippines+39% 5.China+34% Stock Market Performance in Asia in 2005 Source: Rimes in GBP

5 Davos 2006 Source – FT

6 The Productivity Advantage Indiaa usa Pharma view USA 1 chemist 1 chemist 70 hours/week 50 hours/week $ 800 monthly $ 12,000 monthly Better education x 1.3 Longer working time x 1.3 Lower cost x 20 Sources: IPHMR Conferences, New Delhi August 2004

7  Japan - by 2050 36% > 65 years from 19% in 2005  China - one child families, get older before becoming wealthy - labour costs will rise owing to labour shortage - South Guangdong province is short of 2m workers  India - will remain very young, 50% <25years, 65% <35 years - source of the extra needed global workforce - in 2025 100m > 65 years (to China’s 200m) The Ageing Advantage Working Population, 15-64 years In millions

8  Growth - Japan, sustain current growth - China, slightly slower growth to prevent hard landing - India, increasing growth rate being talked up to 9%/10%  Sentiment - India, largest foreign affairs caucus in US Congress (180), nuclear deal - China, 74,000 demonstrations reported in 2005 in China. State secrecy, IP The Economic Growth Advantage

9  The world has 793 billionaires  USA has 371 – almost half  India - 23 billionaires, UK has 24  China - 8 billionaires  Net worth of 40 richest Indians - $106 b  40 richest Chinese - $26b “2006 belongs to some of the emerging markets, and no country more than India” Source: Forbes The Billionaires Advantage

10 The R&D Investment Advantage Most attractive R&D Investment locations: 1. China 2. USA 3. India 4. Japan 5. UK Source – UNCTAD 2005

11  Qualified Scientists & Engineers  Global India players with Alliances  English speaking  TRIPs compliant – first patent March 2006  IIT, IIM & other scientific institutions Source – UNCTAD 2005 The R&D Investment Advantage -reasons why India

12  4 th largest reservoir of Scientific Manpower (2 nd largest English speaking)  3m graduates pa, 115k MSc Chemistry, 215k Eng (222k USA) Physics the most popular subject  Knowledge super power in the making  Lead by a Nuclear Scientist as President – remote sensing satellite technology, 1/6 countries  PCT application ranked 3 rd – K, Ch, Ind, Si, RSA  Diaspora network (25m across 120 countries)  US & Europe will not dominate Science, Maths, IT The Knowledge Advantage

13 Science Education in EU “This means that when pupils are in a science laboratory their experience is unsafe, unsatisfactory or uninspiring for 65% of the time. In addition, 13% of science classes are not taught in a laboratory at all” Source: Royal Society of Chemistry, Policy Bulletin – Spring 2006 UK “A” Level entries:Closed UK University 2000 2005 % change Chemistry Departments: Physics : 32,059 28,119 -12% Dundee Kings Chemistry: 40,856 38,851 -5% Surrey Exeter Maths: 67,036 52,897 -21% Lancaster Queen Mary Computing: 19,099 7,242 -62% under review-Sussex Source: Daily Mail – 11 August 2006

14 Number of Higher Education Institutions 05/06 18,123 +59% 00/01 11,412 90/01 5,932 80/01 4,861 Source: Indian University Grants Commission Science Education in India Number of Students enrolled in Higher Education Institutions 05/06 10,500 +40% 00/01 7,500 90/01 4,000 80/01 3,000 Source: Indian University Grants Commission Number of Institutions courses 05/06 99/00 Pharmacy 1478 669 +120% Medicine 229 174 +32% Physiotherapy 205 52 +294% Source: Pavan Agarwal (2006) based on data from professional councils PhD Degree awarded in Science 03/045408+44% 00/013734 90/012950 (USA 03/04 25,000) Source: Indian University Grants Committee

15 The Knowledge Advantage Engineers/Science graduates p.a – India 0.7m, China 0.5m, EU 0.5m, USA 0.4m, Japan 0.3m

16  34 News TV channels. Oldest 13 years old (NDTV)  5000 newspapers, circulation 17m. 12 with 1m copies each.200m daily readers. 21m new daily readers 2003/2005, +14% with 50% rural and 50% urban readership  Principal internet languages to become English, Chinese and Hindi  Indians are hungry for information The Information Advantage Internet Usage – Asia 1.China123 m 2.Japan 86 m 3.India 51 m 4.S.Korea 34 m Source: Business Today, Sept. 24, 2006 Mobile Phones 1.China421 m 2.USA190 m 3.Japan157 m 4.Russia148 m 5.India116 m Source: Times of India, Sept. 14, 2006

17  Manufacturing growth versus China  Scope for improvement of Government Policies  Revitalization of agriculture - beyond milk (1 st globally), wheat (2 nd ), rice (2 rd )  More privatization – public sector not so buoyant  Further encouragement of R&D for Pharmaceuticals  Expand further the prosperous middle class of 300m The Potential for Improvement Advantage

18 CRO Market India 2006$318 m+347% 2005 $71 m 2000 $10 m Source:Clinivest Research Pvt. Ltd CountryUSAIndia Sites228 Subject626896 Source: Andy Lee Pfizer Global, head clinical study and data management.Business India, August 13, 2006 “………..The Country’s World Class skills in Chemistry & IT and it’s large treatment naive patient population provides added allure” Boston Consultancy Group Harnessing the power of India 2006 The Clinical Advantage Medical Tourism Thailand India - Open heart $14250 $4400 - Hysterectomy $ 2012 $ 571 - Knee surgery $7000 $4500 Patients - Naïve - HIV50m - Diabetes32m - HT5m

19 The M&A Future Advantage

20 $b 1997/83.6 1998/92.5 1999/02.2 2000/14.0 2001/26.1 2002/35.0 2003/44.3 2004/55.6 2005/66.0 Source: Outlook business June 2006 - 2006/7 on target for $10b - But still only 15% of China The FDI Advantage

21 $m 2000 110 2001 160 2002 200 2003 250 2004 400 2005 450 - Leading to even more Pharma R&D facilities and factories Source – Citigroup Investment by top 15 Indian Domestic Pharmaceutical Companies

22 Investment by foreign Pharma companies

23  Microsoft Global Development Centre (GDCI)  Microsoft Global Services (MGSI)  Microsoft Global Technical Support Centre (GTSC)  Microsoft Systems Research (MSRI)  Microsoft India Development Centre (MIDC) Investment by Microsoft in India

24 A Global Strategic Asset for developed World Market businesses India

25 $b 2004 2009 USA 15 27 W Europe 9 14 Japan 3 4 Rest of America 6 9 ROW 25 40 Total 58 94 Source: Frost & Sullivan “India could soon dominate the entire production chain for generics” IMS prediction No 4 Scrip April 5 2006 The Global Generic Market – growing everywhere

26 The Pharma Advantage Competitive Advantage – Aggressive Home Market

27 The Pharma Advantage Competitive Advantage - Cost of Manufacture Active Pharmaceuticals Facility, MohaliDosage Forms Facility, Paonta Sahib Highest number of FDA approved plants outside the US No. of FDA approved plants: 1990 1 1995 10 2000 44 2004 105 Source: Crisil / IPA

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29 The Pharma Advantage R&D I R&D III R&D II Competitive Advantage - Cost of Innovation Ranbaxy’s Patent Filings 24 49 32 86 146 24 170 185 2001 2000 1999 2004 2005

30 The Pharma Advantage – API’s USA DMF filings by India 1990 1 1995 4 2000 36 2004 187 2005 262 Source: Crisil / US FDA / J P Morgan % Share of USA DMF filings India China 2004 27% 9% 2005 37% 10% Q1’06 44% 15% Q2’06 41% 16% Source: US FDA / J P Morgan 6 th August 2006

31 Annual USA ANDA Filings Ranbaxy 29 Sun22 Orchid18 Lupin14 DRL13 Cadilla12 Source: Pharmabiz 8 th Sept’ 2005 - One in every four ANDAs filed by Indian Companies in top USA FDA filers Source: KPMG - 29 ANDAs p.a ranks in top 3 USA FDA filers - Indian Generic Companies on a Filing Spree - BOA - - No Chinese generic company has yet filed a USA FDA - ANDA The Pharma Advantage - ANDAs

32 Leading Generic Companies Source : Company /Financial reports & presentations Annual Sales (US$ Millions) Source: CLSA, 6 August 2006

33 A race to Prosperity in Asia With Law (India) & Order (China) Buddhism Joint Bids for oil assets Silk road re-opened – Sikkim to Tibet (Nathula Pass) Calcutta port is only 1120k from Lhasa India leading in the Pharma race

34 Potential Downsides to the Indian Scenario

35 Potential downside – Asian Flu* *50% of world chickens bred in Asia

36 Potential downside – Oil prices Source – Outlook business June 2006 A war against Iran could drive oil > $200 a barrel - ‘Times’ 22 nd June 2006 Oil is 33% of Indian Energy Sources – IMA, India June 2006 BRIC countries consume 20% oil Source – EIIGSource – BP

37 USA – 4% population with 20% emissions China – Same level as USA in 2005. In 2025 will be double India, China, USA – Refuse any mandatory CO 2 emission caps India is 6 th greatest energy consumer Ganges River is the World’s most polluted river – source: World Commission on water Potential Downside - Pollution

38 Potential downside – Infrastructure A common view Source – Manmohan Singh - Infrastructure will need $155b over the next five years

39 Potential downside – Counterfeit products from India -but not a global issue Origin of fake products seized in EU in 2004 Rank 1. China 2. Thailand 3. Hong Kong 4. Turkey 5. USA Source: FT Countries where fake pharma products seized in 2005 Rank 1. Russia 2. China 3. South Korea 4. Peru 5. Columbia Source: PSI 192,000 died from Counterfeit drugs in China in 2001 Source: IMS 27 th Feb’2006

40 Asia economic strength is returning to levels seen in the past Many advantages for India – R&D, Demographics education India as a global strategic asset Some downsides - infrastructure The current feeling in India a turning point has been reached and an inflexion point has been passed “China & India represent the future of Asia and quite possibly the future for the global economy” – Steve Roach, Morgan Stanley Summary

41 “We have all grown up learning the story of the unfinished voyage of Christopher Columbus setting sail to reach India, he discovered America. I now invite the people of America to complete the Voyage of that great explorer” Manmohan Singh Prime Minister of India July 2005

42 Thank You


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