1. Transportation leadership you can trust. 12 th TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference, May 2009, Houston, TX presented to 12 th TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference, May 2009, Houston, TX presented by Krishnan Viswanathan and Daniel Beagan Cambridge Systematics, Inc. May 18, 2009 Climate Change in Travel Demand Models Credit: Azmat Ali, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International

2. 1 Presentation Outline I - What is climate change II - Impacts on transportation and land use III - Policies and measures to mitigate climate change IV - Incorporate climate change in travel demand models Credit: Rose Fyson, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International

3. 2 I - What is Climate Change Credit: Ninita Machava, Pedro Livinga,Vasco Macuácua,Rebeca Gomes,Rebeca Mavuia. Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International

4. 3 A Definition Changes in the atmospheric abundance of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols, in solar radiation and in land surface properties Radiative forcing Increases in global atmospheric concentrations of CO 2, methane and N 2 O due to human activities The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change Methane and N 2 O are primarily due to agriculture

5. 4 The Earth’s Greenhouse Effect Source : The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation

6. 5 GHGs and Temperature Trends Source : Climate Change 2001 : The Scientific Basis, IPCC

7. 6 Global and Continental Temperature Change Source : Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis, IPCC

8. 7 United States Temperature Change

9. 8 II - Impacts on Transportation and Land Use Credit: Students at Charupeeth School of Fine Art, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International

10. 9 Impact of Climate Change on Transportation Climate Change And Variability Temperature change Temperature change Precipitation change Precipitation change Accelerated sea Accelerated sea level rise Increased storm Increased storm surge and intensity Transportation Decision Making Systematic planning Systematic planning and investment Project development Project development Operations Operations Maintenance Maintenance System Assessment System Assessment TransportationImpacts Location Location System Design System Design Emergency mgmt. Emergency mgmt. Investment Levels Investment Levels Source : Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I, FHWA

11. 10 Impacts on Land Use and Transportation Water Scarcity Insurance restrictions Increases in very hot days and heat waves Increases in Arctic temperatures Rising sea levels Increases in intense precipitation events Increases in hurricane intensity

12. 11 Operational Impacts Rising sea levels Operational Impact : More frequent interruptions to coastal and low-lying roadway travel and rail service due to storm surges and more severe storm surges, requiring evacuation and/or changes in development patterns Increases in intense precipitation events Operational Impact : Increases in weather-related delays and traffic disruptions and increased flooding of evacuation routes More frequent strong hurricanes Operational Impact : More frequent and potentially more extensive emergency evacuations and more debris on roads and rail lines

13. 12 III - Policies and Measures to Mitigate Climate Change Credit: Ashley Cecil, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International

14. 13 Policy Recommendations Incorporate climate change into long term capital improvement plans, facility designs, maintenance practices, operations, and emergency response plans Better investment analyses and design approaches to B/C effects of making infrastructure more robust Better coordination and communication between various agencies Include needs of transportation decision makers in climate change research

15. 14 Policy Recommendations Better integration of transportation with emergency response and evacuation plans Knowledge sharing of best practices across various institutions to address impacts of climate change Incentives to mitigate climate change impacts

16. 15 Policy Recommendations Include climate change as a factor in the development of public-sector, long-range transportation plans; eliminate any perception that such plans should be limited to 20–30 years; and require collaboration in plan development with agencies responsible for land use, environmental protection, and natural resource management to foster more integrated transportation–land use decision making Source : TRB Special Report 290 : Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation

17. 16 Mitigation Analysis Models should provide insights into changes in travel behavior due to measures taken to mitigate climate change The models should be able to answer questions such as Impacts of carbon taxes on travel behavior Impacts of congestion pricing Impacts of changes in transit service Impacts of changes to land use Models should support mitigation policy options

18. 17 IV - Incorporate Climate change in Travel Demand Models Credit: Gukzik Lau, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International

19. 18 The Modeling Process Land Use TrafficAssignment Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice

20. 19 Climate Change in Demand Models Climate Change Scenario 5 to 9 F increase Map USGC geography to model geography Measure CC scenario impacts on sociodemographic, physical and transportation characteristics Incorporate into TD model process

21. 20 Land Use Models Changes due to Climate Change in Current land use Current land use Zoning plans Zoning plans Environmental Environmental and regulatory Constraints Developable Developableareas Land Use Models Variability in Households/TAZ Households/TAZ Employment/TAZ Employment/TAZ Attraction AttractionLocations Model changes Reduction inReduction in control totals Increase in Increase intransportationcosts Loss of Loss ofemployment

22. 21 Trip Generation Models Changes due to Climate Change in Households/TAZ Households/TAZ Employment/TAZ Employment/TAZ Special Specialgenerators Trip Generation Models Models Variability in Trip Ps and As Trip Ps and As Model Changes Reduction in tripReduction in triprates Increase in Increase inresidentialdensity

23. 22 Trip Distribution Models Changes due to Climate Change in Trip Ps and As Trip Ps and As Skims Skims Trip Lengths Trip Lengths Trip Distribution Models Models Variability in Trip OD pairs Trip OD pairs Model Changes Changes in Changes in friction factors Network Networkavailability Access Availability Access Availability

24. 23 Mode Choice Models Changes due to Climate Change in Vehicle Availability Vehicle Availability Skims Skims Destination Destinationaccess Land use changes Land use changes Mode Choice Models Models Variability in Mode Shares Mode Shares Mode OD pairs Mode OD pairs Model Changes More joint trips More joint trips Increases in vehicle Increases in vehicle operating costs More transit More transitcrowding

25. 24 Assignment Models Changes due to Climate Change in Mode OD pairs Mode OD pairs Skims Skims Network availability Network availability Assignment Models Models Variability in VMT, VHT VMT, VHT Congested speeds Congested speeds and times total vehicles on total vehicles onNetwork GHG estimation GHG estimation Model Changes Restricted capacity Restricted capacity Speed restrictions Speed restrictions increased transit increased transitnetworks

26. 25 Summary Transportation planners and modelers need to be at the climate change table The impacts of climate change should be included in development or testing of alternatives during the LRTP cycle The process proposed here offers a relatively simple way to include climate change in travel demand models The model should provide insights into changes in travel behavior due to climate change mitigation strategies

27. Transportation leadership you can trust. 12 th TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference, May 2009, Houston, TX presented to 12 th TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference, May 2009, Houston, TX presented by Krishnan Viswanathan and Daniel Beagan Cambridge Systematics, Inc. May 18, 2009 Climate Change in Travel Demand Models Credit: Azmat Ali, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International