1. Electricity Efficiency in Californias Future Mark D. Levine Sacramento, CA May 24, 2006

2. Ancient History

3. DivRev05 page 3 CA Peak Power: Testimony by Goldstein and Rosenfeld Dec 1974, updated to show actual peak demand in 1985

4. History

5. DivRev05 page 5 Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)

6. DivRev05 page 6 California Electricity Demand 1980-2004 Average annual growth rate: 2.0%

7. DivRev05 page 7 California Population 1980-2004 Average annual growth rate: 1.8%

8. DivRev05 page 8 Annual Spending on Electrical Energy Efficiency (1976-2002) CEC Staff Report Proposed Energy Savings Goals for Energy Efficiency Programs in California (2003)

9. DivRev05 page 9 Review of Energy Conservation Funding and Savings Cycles Over the Last 27 Years CEC (2005)

10. The Future

11. DivRev05 page 11 Energy Efficiency Program Effects Reported in Western Utility Resource Plans The majority of energy-efficiency program activity is projected to occur in California and the Pacific Northwest Note: results are not normalized for utility size

12. DivRev05 page 12 Impact of EE programs in reducing utility load growth (2004-2013) Utilities forecasted load growth without energy efficiency ranges from 1.1% to 2.4% annually The three CA utilities expect to reduce electricity growth to 75% from base case expectations) over coming 10 years!

13. DivRev05 page 13 Population Forecasts (2005-2050)

14. DivRev05 page 14 Historical Spending on Electrical Energy Efficiency (1976-2002) CEC Staff Report Proposed Energy Savings Goals for Energy Efficiency Programs in California (2003) Projected Spending on Electrical Energy Efficiency (2006-2008) Dramatic Increase in CA Utility DSM Program (2006-2008)

15. A power plant is a building! 67% of oil used in U.S. goes to vehicles (54% in 1976) 71% of electricity goes to buildings (60% in 1976) Buildings elec is fastest growing element, 1976-2002: Multiple is 2.1 Spaghetti diagram for U.S., 2002

16. A larger fraction of electricity goes to buildings in rich countries Buildings Electricity = 100% Commercial and Residential + 15% Industrial + 10% Agricultural. Data provided by Paul Waide, graphics by Shoibal Chakravarty All data are for 2002 except U.S. 1976 point U.S. 1976 U.S. 2002 All data are for 2002 except U.S. 1976 point. Areas of points: proportional to populations.

17. Backup

18. DivRev05 page 18 Electricity Consumption per Capita (1960-2001)

19. DivRev05 page 19 Statewide Electricity Consumption per Capita (1980-2016) CEC Staff Final Report September 2005 CEC-400-2005-034-SF-ED2

20. DivRev05 page 20 Figure 3 Energy Intensity – California and the United States

21. DivRev05 page 21 Statewide Natural Gas Consumption per Capita (1980-2016) CEC Staff Final Report September 2005 CEC-400-2005-034-SF-ED2