1. Portugal CO 2 Marginal abatement cost curve Estimate of CO 2 Marginal abatement costs for Portugal using the TIMES_PT model Environmental Sciences and Engineering Department New University of Lisbon Portugal Sofia Simões, João Cleto, Patrícia Fortes, Júlia Seixas

2. Portugal CO 2 Marginal abatement cost curve Implementation of TIMES_PT NEEDS National research project Quantifying interactions between energy and environment policy instruments http://air.dcea.fct.unl.pt/projects/e2pol/ E 2 POL EU research project Evaluation of total costs and benefits of energy policies and future energy systems http://www.needs-project.org/nf2.asp TIMES_PT Implementation of TIMES for Portugal: 2000-2030 (2050) NEEDS

3. Portugal CO 2 Marginal abatement cost curve TIMES_PT - main assumptions Policies in place Nuclear politically unacceptable Min. electricity generated from gas combined cycle (existing & new) corresponding to at least 1100 MW in 2010-2030, due for investments already made in supply infrastructure No new Coal Power Plants before 2015 & no increase in coal in final sectors; new coal has CCS CO2 storage constant and up to 5000 Gg – approx. 6% of expected national emissions in 2010 Min. use of Municipal Waste & Wood Waste for electricity following waste and forestry policies Min. 1.1 MW wind onshore in 2005 replicating effects of existing feed-in-tariffs Biofuel targets for 2010 (5.75% of diesel and gasoline) Min. 39% of the electricity consumed in 2010 is from renewable sources ISP (energy carriers tax) and VAT over energy carriers 80% of the carbon sinks negotiated under the Kyoto Protocol Calibration assumptions Max CHP penetration in industry – up to 50% of ind. electricity consumed in 2030 Max natural gas penetration of 85% Inertia factors in residential and commercial sectors Limits on electricity imports (+255% than 2000) and exports (+121% than 2000)

4. Portugal CO 2 Marginal abatement cost curve CO 2 Marginal abatement costs curve (I) Kyoto +20% +10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Kyoto +10% 0% -10% -20% -30% +20%

5. Portugal CO 2 Marginal abatement cost curve CO 2 Marginal abatement costs curve (II) 113% Nat. Estimates - High Reference Scenario 100% Nat. Estimates Low Reference Scenario

6. Portugal CO 2 Marginal abatement cost curve Primary energy 12% 14% 16% 19% 22%23% 27% 30% 17% 21% 22% 24% 29% 33%

7. Portugal CO 2 Marginal abatement cost curve CO 2 abatement compared to Kyoto scenario 99% 61% 28% 57% 31% 42% 45% 15% 12% 45% 35% 47% 30% 78%33% 44% 18% 40% 47% 16% 19% 18% 42% 13% 44% 11% 32% 27% 22% 18%

8. Portugal CO 2 Marginal abatement cost curve Some indicators CO 2 per capita2000201020202000-20102010-2020 Kyoto scenario (+27%) 6.5 6.36.2 t CO 2 /inhab -3% Other scen. (+20% to -30%)6.2-6.35.7-3.4-3% to -4%-10% to -46% CO 2 / GDP2000201020202000-20102010-2020 Kyoto scenario (+27%) 541 413261 t CO 2 /M€ -24%-23% Other scen. (+20% to -30%)412-415142-238-23 to -24%-29% to -57% 200020102020 487 Gg/GWh391-407 Gg/GWh311-94 Gg/GWh 143 Gg/Mpkm128 Gg/Mpkm116-87 Gg/Mpkm 235 Gg/Mtkm240 Gg/Mtkm267-240 Gg/Mtkm 525 Gg/Mt glass389-386 Gg/Mt glass308-225 Gg/Mt glass 804 Gg/Mt cement819-805 Gg/Mt cement818-504 Gg/Mt cement

9. Portugal CO 2 Marginal abatement cost curve sgcs@fct.unl.pt jfcn@fct.unl.pt p.fs@fct.unl.pt mjs@fct.unl.pt http://air.dcea.fct.unl.pt/projects/e2pol/