1. California Climate Observations: CalSat
Appreciate the opportunity
I speak for my staff that these folks are passionate about what they see as their mission, which is saving the planet
Airplane ride - switching seats
California Climate Observations: CalSat
Randy Friedl, Jet Propulsion Lab
Steve Hipskind, Ames Research Center

2. Outline • California Climate Assessments / Issues • Observation needs
• Observation capabilities
• Observation strategy
Aircraft, including UAS - (e.g., Global Hawk)
LEO (e.g., QuikSCAT)
LEO constellation (NASA EOS, GPS, DMC, RapidEye)
GEO (NOAA GOES)
L1 (DSCOVR)
• ROM Costs
• Recommendations

4. Our Changing Climate (Assessment Priorities)
Public Health
Air Quality
Heat
Agriculture
Temperature increases
Pests / pathogens
Stresses
Rising Sea Level
Coastal Flooding / Levees
Shrinking beaches
Water Resources
Sierra Snowpack
Water supply
Hydropower
Winter Recreation
Forests & Landscapes
Wildfires
Invasive species
Shifting vegetation
Declining forest productivity
Carbon Sources and Sinks

5. Science Challenges Require High Spatial and Temporal Measurements and Models
GCM grid ~ km
RCM grid ~ km
Aircraft & Satellite resolution
~ 0.1 – 100 km
Source: R. Rood, U. Mich.

6. NASA’s Earth Science Satellites
The U.S. has a highly capable observing system for global scale climate change
NASA and NOAA have 29 spacecraft and over 120 instruments currently observing the Earth system
NRC notes that this capability will decrease dramatically over next ten years, even if U.S. implements NRC Decadal Survey recommendations
NASA’s Earth Science Satellites

7. Observation Capabilities
PASSIVE
Land / Ocean Surface Imaging
Multi-spectral (LANDSAT)
Hyperspectral
Atmospheric Sounding
UV/Visible Spectrometry
Near IR Spectrometry
ACTIVE
Radar
Lidar

9. Observation Strategy Airborne Space based Conventional Aircraft
Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)
Airships
Balloons
Space based
Low Earth Orbit (LEO)
Single spacecraft
LEO Constellation
Medium Earth Orbit (MEO)
Geostationary Orbit (GEO)
Langrange Point (L1)

10. California: ER-2 Coverage from Two Missions
Aircraft Enable Flexible Observation Strategy
Significant trade-offs between spatial and temporal coverage for given number of flight hours
Red: Flight
8 August 2003
Blue: Flight
11 August 2003
(7 Flight hours each)
Flight Line Spacing:
12nm / 23km
5 flights needed to fully cover state
Total Flight Time: 35 hours
MASTER
RC-10

11. Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Trades Temporal for Spatial Coverage
600km Swath
1km Resolution
561km Altitude, Sunsynchronous
At least once-daily coverage of all of California (twice daily for some parts of northern California)
Daily coverage of US pacific cost, and California Baja
Daily coverage of nearly the entire US east cost
Sparse global coverage including:
UK, France, Spain, Japan, China, Russia
Complete Daily coverage of polar regions between 70° and 84° Latitude
Non-sun synchronous orbits open up more coverage possibilities

12. The NASA LEO Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) Mission will travel over California 6 times every 16 days
The green lines represent OCO flight paths over California and neighboring land and ocean regions
These flight paths are repeated every 16 days
~2 weeks between exact revisits
5 days between nearest neighbor paths
OCO makes more than 20,000 measurements over California every month
Clouds and aerosols will prevent many measurements from sampling all the way to the surface
Measurements from flight paths over the land and ocean regions surrounding California can establish the net flow of CO2 emissions in and out of the state
In its standard survey mode, OCO will be able to detect XCO2 variations as small a 1 ppm out of 380 ppm (0.3%) in a single sounding over bright surfaces
This corresponds to CO2 sources produced by burning as little as 7500 gallons of gasoline or diesel (<2 tanker trucks)
OCO should easily detect heavy traffic patterns over major urban areas 1 2 3 4 5 6

13. Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) provides Spatial – Temporal Compromise
MEO altitudes are between ~1500 – km
Combining MEO orbit with wide swath (~1000 km) instrument can provide up to 6 passes over California per day

14. Molniya Orbit Provides Longer Regional View
A highly elliptic orbit with 63.4° inclination and ~12 hour orbital period. Satellite spends ~ half day over a designated area of the earth. Orbital altitude is near 40,000 km.

15. Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO) Provides Constant View of Full Disk
GEO altitude is ~35,000 km
Full Disk GOES Image (+/- 65°)
Provides ability to stare at given region; provides high temporal resolution
Ideal for tracking fast moving events such as forest fires

16. California: ER-2 Coverage from Two Missions
Langrange point (L1) provides full, daytime view of Earth
L1 Orbit is ~1.5 million km from Earth; undergoes 4-15 degree Lissajous orbit
DSCOVR was planned to provide first Earth observations from L1 (e.g. O3, aerosols, water)
Federal/Industrial partnership being studied for DSCOVR

17. Comparison of Earth Views from GEO and L1
Optics at GEO. The blue circle represents a 1 degree half angle that covers California and the green circle represents a 4 degree half angle to cover the continental US.
Optics at L1. The red circle represents a 0.1 degree half angle to cover California.

18. Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Costs*
5 Year Mission
California Coverage (~4x105Km2-hr/day)
Airborne
Conventional Aircraft ($10M/Year) $50M 1
Space based
Low Earth Orbit (LEO)
Single spacecraft $50-150M
Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) $150M
Geostationary Orbit (GEO) or Molniya $300M 24
(Potential for co-launch on
commercial spacecraft) $50M
Langrange Point (L1) $300M 12
(DISCOVR refurbishment and
commercial partnership) $30M
*Assumes creative, cost-effective implementation strategies

19. Gas and Particle Concentrations Air Quality Predictions
Maximizing Observational Assets for Regional Change Requires Clear Science Goals and Detailed System Engineering
Gas and Particle Concentrations
Pollutant Data
Air Quality Predictions

20. Recommendation
A robust regional climate observing system does not currently exist and will require integration of spaceborne, aircraft and groundbased measurement approaches.
Development of a regional observing system must be done in concert with development of regional modeling capabilities that are firmly tied to global climate model input.
An in-depth analysis of regional observing requirements should be pursued, along with a more detailed analysis of observing options that would be cost effective for state.
Regional observation strategies should leverage the substantial Federal investment in global scale observations. State options could include state satellite launch, joining or initiating a consortium or buying data commercially.

21. BACKUP

22. California Economy Ranking
The World Fact Book (CIA)
The rankings are:[12]
1. the combined United States
2. China
3. Japan
4. India
5. Germany
6. United Kingdom
7. France
8. Italy
9. Russia
10. California
11. Brazil
12. Canada
13. Mexico
14. Spain
15. South Korea
(2005 estimates)
California Legislative Analyst's Office
The rankings are:[13]
1. the combined United States
2. Japan
3. Germany
4. United Kingdom
5. France
  6. California
7. Italy
8. China
9. Canada
10. Spain
(2004 data)

23. Countries w/ Earth Observing Satellites
US (Government & Commercial)
Russia
European Space Agency UK
France
Germany
Israel
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
China
Brazil
Korea
Japan
India
Algeria
Nigeria
Turkey

24. Low Cost Earth Observing Options
Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC)
Multi country consortium
Moderate resolution LANDSAT type observations
Low cost satellites (<$20M)
Each country pays for their satellite, shares data with consortium
Members: UK, China, Algeria, Nigeria, Turkey
Surrey Satellite Technology, LTD build and launch satellites
RapidEye
Commercial venture
High resolution (6m), multi-spectral observations
Targeted for agricultural applications
Low cost for imagery compared to current providers ($1/km2)
Cost to cover California ~$400K (~400K km2)

25. Earth Observing Satellites (Commercial)
* Disaster Monitoring Constellation
* IKONOS
* QuickBird
* SPOT
* EROS
* RapidEye
* FORMOSAT-2

26. Earth Observing Satellites (NASA EOS)
FLAGSHIP MISSIONS
* Terra (EOS AM-1)
* Aqua (EOS PM-1)
* Aura
* TRMM
* Jason 1
EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE PATHFINDER (ESSP - PI led missions)
* GRACE
* IceSAT
* Cloudsat/CALIPSO
* OCO
* Aquarius