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Office of Coast Survey Overview of the Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System for the Pacific Jesse Feyen and Jiangtao Xu National Ocean Service/Office of Coast Survey/ Coast Survey Development Laboratory
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Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS Overview –Operational guidance for extratropical surge and tides Large scale prediction of coastal water levels Insufficient TC resolution and lacks hurricane forcing –Provide surge+tide boundary conditions for NWS’s Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) Mimics WAVEWATCHIII ® (WW3) set-up –Operational for Atlantic since Oct 2012 Historically extreme surge event in Pacific (Astoria OR 2/4/2006) West Coast WLs tend to be dominated by tide range versus surge
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Office of Coast Survey Model design considerations Ocean boundary location –Selected to cover West Coast and Hawaii while avoiding complex tidal amphidromes Land boundary –MHW shoreline; cannot predict overland inundation –2-3 km resolution to maintain large domain efficiency but limits capacity to resolve bays and estuaries –Limits accuracy of tidal prediction in complex and dynamic estuaries Water level accuracy goal of 0.20 cm RMSE or 20% of tide range, if larger
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Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS Operational Set-up Run cycle –4 times per day during 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z cycles –6-hr nowcast followed by 180-hr forecast –Global Forecast System (GFS) forcing: 10 m winds and sea level pressure fields input every 3 hours –Approximately 120 min run time –Runs a tidal simulation followed by tide+wind driven simulation; the surge signal is isolated by subtracting tide predictions from surge+tide predicted water level
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Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS Output Delivers three types of water level –Combined Water Level (CWL): Surge + tides –Harmonic Tidal Prediction (HTP): Astronomical tides –Subtidal Water Level (SWL): SWL = CWL – HTP = “surge” Provides both fields (hourly) and points (6 min) Generates output on native unstructured grid (NetCDF) and NDFD structured grid (GRIB2) –http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/estofs/prod –http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/ –GRIB2 will be eventually available via SBN for AWIPS
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Office of Coast Survey M2M2 Domain Boundary Location Selection K1K1 Tested two boundaries; the black dashed line indicates final boundary from TPXO8 forcing with a 20% increase in M2 amp.
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Office of Coast Survey Slide 7 ESTOFS-Pacific Evaluation Webinar ESTOFS-Pac Model Grid 132630 Nodes Size ranges: 850 m - 60 km
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Office of Coast Survey Slide 8 ESTOFS-Pacific Evaluation Webinar ESTOFS-Pac Model Grid Cook Inlet Hawaiian Islands Puget Sound Columbia River San Francisco Bay
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Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS-Pacific Water Level Fields ESTOFS-Pacific grid (NetCDF) NDFD CONUS-2.5km, Alaska-6km, and Hawaii-2.5 km grids (GRIB2)
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Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS Animations http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/estofs/estofs_pacific_surge_info.shtml CWL animations also available
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Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS Hydrographs NWS/MDL has created a mirror of its ET-Surge website to display ESTOFS Pacific in the same manner people are used to viewing ETSS in the Pacific http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etsurge_ESTOFS/
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Office of Coast Survey Hindcast Validation Study (Dec. 2004-Feb. 2006) GFS analysis 6 hourly 1° x 1° fields provides forcing 10 m winds and pressure at MSL Water levels exceeded the 10% annual exceedance probability levels (i.e. 1 in 10-year event) for 3 storms: 1/7-1/11 2005: San Diego; La Jolla; Los Angeles; Santa Monica; Port San Luis; Monterey; San Francisco; Alameda; Point Reyes 12/30/2005-1/1/2006: Crescent City, CA; San Francisco, CA; Alameda, CA; Astoria, OR; South Beach, OR; Charleston, OR; Neah Bay, WA; Port Angeles, WA 2/4/2006: Astoria, OR; Toke Point, WA; Cherry Point, WA; Friday Harbor, WA; Port Angeles, WA
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Office of Coast Survey Weather Map on 01/08/2005 Strong low pressure system close to West Coast
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Office of Coast Survey San Francisco, CA Surge WL Combined WL January 2005 Storm
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Office of Coast Survey Weather Map on 01/01/2006 Strong low pressure system off Washington coast
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Office of Coast Survey Neah Bay, WA Surge WL Combined WL Dec-Jan 2006 Storm
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Office of Coast Survey Weather Map on 02/04/2006 Strong low pressure system off BC coast
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Office of Coast Survey Toke Point, WA Surge WL Combined WL February 2006 Storm
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Office of Coast Survey Water Level Skill Assessment - Combined WL Largest errors are located well inside complex estuaries
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Office of Coast Survey Water Level Skill Assessment – Tidal WL Tidal errors inside complex estuaries can be significant due to challenging tidal dynamics and river inflows
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Office of Coast Survey Water Level Skill Assessment – Surge WL The subtidal water level, or surge, shows good skill nearly everywhere in the domain
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Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS-Pac Hindcast Water Level Skill Assessment RMSE (m) Stations CAORWA AK HI Cook Inlet Port Chicago Anchorage Port Chicago Accuracy benchmark Errors exceeding accuracy benchmark driven by challenging tidal dynamics or locations far inside complex estuaries
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Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS-Pac Hindcast Water Level Skill Assessment (RMSE relative to mean tidal range (MN)) RMSE Relative to MN Stations CAORWA AK HI Cook Inlet Port Chicago Anchorage Port Chicago Accuracy benchmark Errors exceeding accuracy benchmark relative to mean tide range limited to few locations far inside complex estuaries
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Office of Coast Survey Hindcast Water Level Time Series Comparison Monterey, CA Neah Bay, WA Seward, AK Combined water level over the hindcast period
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Office of Coast Survey Monterey, CA Neah Bay, WA Seward, AK Hindcast Water Level Time Series Comparison
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Office of Coast Survey Los Angeles, CA Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Los Angeles, CA Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Monterey, CA Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Monterey, CA Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey San Francisco, CA Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey San Francisco, CA Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Humbolt Bay, CA Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Humbolt Bay, CA Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Port Orford, OR Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Port Orford, OR Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Astoria, OR Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Astoria, OR Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Neah Bay, WA Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Neah Bay, WA Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Seattle, WA Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Seattle, WA Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Sitka, AK Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Seward, AK Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Seward, AK Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Anchorage, AK Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Anchorage, AK Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey King Cove, AK Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey King Cove, AK Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Honolulu, HI Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Honolulu, HI Surge WL Combined WL
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Office of Coast Survey Slide 51 ESTOFS-Pacific Evaluation Webinar ESTOFS-Pacific Real-Time Simulation Skills Surface Forcing: GFS 3 hourly 0.5º x 0.5º prediction fields (10 m winds and pressure at MSL) 05/06 - 06/05/2014 real-time test
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Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS-Pac Forecast Total Water Level Skill Assessment RMSE (m) Stations CAORWA AK HI Port Chicago, CA Bolinas Lagoon, CA Garibaldi, OR Skamokawa, WA Port Angeles, WA Port Townsend, WA Tacoma, WA Seattle, WA Cherry Point, WA Friday Harbor, WA Juneau, AK Skagway, AK Valdez, AK Nikiski, AK Anchorage, AK
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Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS-Pac Forecast Total Water Level Skill Assessment (RMSE relative to mean tidal range (MN)) RMSE Relative to MN Stations CAORWA AK HI Cook Inlet Port Chicago Port Chicago, CA Bolinas Lagoon, CA Friday Harbor, WA Midway Islands Kawaihae, HI Honolulu, HI
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Office of Coast Survey ESTOFS Development Team NOS/OCS/CSDL/Marine Modeling and Analysis Programs –Jesse Feyen, Yuji Funakoshi, Jiangtao Xu, Frank Aikman, Mary Erickson NWS/NCEP/EMC/Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch –Andre van der Westhuysen, Hendrik Tolman NWS/NCEP/NCEP Central Operations –Steven Earle, Kit M, Chris Caruso Magee, Becky Cosgrove, Boi Vong NWS/NCEP/OPC –Joe Sienkiewicz, Robert Daniels
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