1. THE CULTURE WAR OVER FOOD AND FARMING: WHO IS WINNING? Robert Paarlberg rpaarlberg@wellesley.edu University of Wisconsin April 20, 2012

3. FUNDAMENTAL DISAGREEMENTS Over what farms should look like Over the most important challenge to farming Over farming’s proper relationship to nature Over who should make decisions about food and agriculture

4. ADVOCATES FOR CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE ADVOCATES FOR ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE Large, specialized farms are OK. Large, specialized farms are not OK. WHAT FARMS SHOULD LOOK LIKE

5. ADVOCATES FOR CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE ADVOCATES FOR ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE Produce much more food by 2050 Preserve traditional rural livelihoods, protect biodiversity, and provide ecosystem services. THE MOST IMPORTANT CHALLENGE TO FARMING

6. ADVOCATES FOR CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE ADVOCATES FOR ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE Protect nature by generating high yields, to reduce the area being cropped. The best systems are those that imitate nature. FARMING’S PROPER RELATIONSHIP TO NATURE

7. ADVOCATES FOR CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE ADVOCATES FOR ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE Governments, technical experts, and the market. Governments, experts, and markets are not to be trusted. WHO SHOULD MAKE DECISIONS ABOUT AGRICULTURE?

8. THE CAMP SYMPATHETIC TO CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE THE CAMP SYMPATHETIC TO ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE Commercial Farmers Agribusiness Companies Ag Committees of Cong. Scientists Economists Environmental advocates Social justice advocates Anti-corporate activists Anti-globalization activists Cultural elites THE OPPOSING CAMPS

9. ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE DOMINATES THE CULTURAL MARKETPLACE:

10. LOCAL FOOD: OUTCOMES IN COMMERCIAL MARKETPLACE Number of farmers markets in US has doubled since 1998 Number of CSA’s has risen from 400 in 2001 to at least 4000 today Even so, food sales through farmers markets and CSA’s make up only 4/10 of 1% of all agricultural sales in the United States

11. ORGANIC FOOD: OUTCOMES IN COMMERCIAL MARKETPLACE In 2010, only 4% of food sales organic Only 7% of these organic food sales took place at farmers’ markets 45% of organic production in just two states, with large, specialized farms

12. Harvested Organic Cropland in 2008 was 0.51% of the US Total Cropland

13. Vegetable Crops: Relative Yields 100%

14. Row Crops: Relative Yields 100%

15. IS CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE FALTERING? Annual Rate of Growth of TFP 1970-901991-06 North America1.491.91 Asia1.512.62

16. FARMING IN USA NO LONGER INPUT-INTENSIVE

17. VOLUME OF FOOD PRODUCTION + 5 PERCENT LAND AREA FARMED- 4 PERCENT IRRIG. WATER USE- 9 PERCENT EXCESS “N” USE- 17 PERCENT PESTICIDE USE- 5 PERCENT G. GAS EM. FROM AG - 3 PERCENT INCREASE IN TOTAL EN. USE IN AG 1/6 THE RATE OF INCREASE IN REST OF ECONOMY SUSTAINABILITY GAINS FROM MODERN FARMING IN OECD COUNTRIES, 1990-2004

18. POST-1980 EMERGENCE OF “PRECISION” CROP FARMING More precise irrigation techniques More precise fertilizer use Reduced pesticide use Reduced tillage, saving diesel fuel

19. GPS Equipped Tractor

21. Pre-plant Variable Rate Irrigation

22. GIS MAPPING: INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE

23. UPTAKE OF PRECISION FARMING OHIO, 2010 All FarmsBig Farms ($1 million in sales) (50% of all sales) MOUNTED GPS DEVICE 30.2%78.5% YIELD MONITOR DEVICE 25.3%79.7% GEO-REFERENCED SOIL MAPPING 22.7%55.8%

24. DRIP IRRIGATION

25. Home Made Drip Irrigation

26. REDUCING PESTICIDE USE Since 1972, U.S. ban on organochlorine insecticides Since 1990s, variable rate application Since 1996 introduction of Bt corn and Bt cotton (reducing insecticide use) Since 1996 introduction of glyphosate-resistant soybeans (replacing herbicides that are more toxic to animals)

27. Bt Corn: Protection Against Corn Borer

28. 2010 REPORT FROM EU COMMISSION DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR RESEARCH: "The main conclusion to be drawn from the efforts of more than 130 research projects, covering a period of more than 25 years of research, and involving more than 500 independent research groups, is that biotechnology, and in particular GMOs, are not per se more risky than, for example, conventional plant breeding technologies."

29. REDUCED TILLAGE AND CULTIVATION TO SAVE SOIL AND DIESEL FUEL 1980s: Machines that seed unplowed fields 1990s: Glyphosate-resistant crops that allow reduced mechanical cultivation

30. Seeding Without Plowing

31. ABSOLUTE LEVELS OF FARM PRODUCTIVITY Production Value Per Agricultural Worker Cereal Production per Hectare of Land UNITED STATES $45,000 6.6 tons THAILAND $705 3.0 tons KENYA$3501.6 tons

33. LIVESTOCK FARMING: A SEPARATE ISSUE?

34. CAFOS

35. LIVESTOCK FARMING CAFOs work well for: Reducing costs to consumers Reducing the frequency of food contamination CAFOs work less well for: Waste disposal Dependence on antibiotics Animal welfare

36. LEGAL, POLITICAL, AND COMMERCIAL ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TO CAFOs Court and FDA actions against growth promotion use of antibiotics State level bans on gestation crates and small cage space for hens Voluntary phase-outs of pork from sow crates by Hormel, Smithfield Foods, Whole Foods, Chipolte, McDonald’s

37. Alternative agriculture has recently become dominant in the elite cultural marketplace. Conventional crop farming has given up none of its dominance in the commercial marketplace. Conventional livestock farming is being forced to accept new restraints from the commercial and political marketplace. CONCLUSION: WHO IS WINNING?