1. TOURISM PETER ROBINSON MICHAEL LÜCK STEPHEN L. J. SMITH

2. The Future of Tourism 18

3. Learning Objectives To evaluate a range of factors that influence the direction and scope of the travel sector To consider the impact of current innovations and the future development of tourism To assess future trends and products in the context of tourism management

4. Exogenous factors: these are factors that are external to the tourism industry and may include political issues, economic fluctuations or natural disasters, which will impact upon the industry but are not related to it Endogenous factors: these are the factors that exist within the tourism system and may, for example, relate to new products, new services, tourism-specific technologies or tourism-specific legislation Understanding Change

5. Market variables –An ageing population –Lifestyle patterns –Greater knowledge –New destinations –Emerging markets –Legislation Factors that will Influence the Future

6. Market variables –Power and politics –Environmental concerns –The ‘staycation’ –Freedom of the skies –Health and safety Factors that will Influence the Future

7. Virtual reality Space tourism Globalization Neo-colonialism New tourism Postmodernism and tourism Crisis management The slow movement Factors that will Influence the Future