1. Multinational Planning Augmentation Team
(MPAT)
Mission Analysis
Purpose
References
Joint Publication 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, Feb 1995
JP , Joint Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures for Foreign Humanitarian Assistance, 12 Dec 2000
JP 3-16, Joint Doctrine for Multinational Operations, April 2000
JP , Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 1999
Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Manual , JTF Headquarters Master Training Guide, 15 Apr 1997
US-Thailand HQ and Staff Planning Standing Operating Procedures (SOP), 17 February 1998
Discuss techniques and procedures for conducting an operational level mission analysis for multinational operations
1. This module will cover mission analysis.
2. During mission analysis, we analyze the situation and the assigned mission, including assigned strategic military and political-military objectives, and related.
3. Mission analysis is an 11-step process. The result defines the operational problem and begins the process of determining feasible solutions, or courses of action.
4. This module is based largely on U.S. military doctrine.
5. These are the references used in developing this module.
-First step of Commander’s Estimate process
-Operational level (includes strategic military and politico-military objectives)

2. Crisis Action Planning Process
Situation
Development II
Crisis
Assessment
III
Course of
Action
Development IV
Course of
Action
Selection V
Execution
Planning
OPORD
&
Deployment
Data Base VI
Execution
And/or
Warning
Order
Planning
Order
Alert
Order
Execute
Order I
Mission Analysis II
Course of Action
Development
1.The course of action development phase of crisis action planning implements national command authorities’ decision to develop military options for response to a crisis and for the CTF commander and staff, will usually begin upon receipt of the supported strategic commander’s warning order. This warning order will establish command relationships and identify the mission and any planning constraints.
2. Receipt of the warning order initiates the commander’s estimate process. As shown, mission analysis is the first step. It is perhaps the most important aspect of the commander’s estimate process, because it is the basis for all further planning.
III
Analysis of Opposing
Courses of Action IV
Comparison of Own
Courses of Action V
Commander’s
Decision
Commander’s Estimate Process

3. Mission Analysis Objectives
Common understanding of the problem
Multinational force (MNF) or CTF restated mission
Most probable & most challenging or dangerous potential change in the situation / Enemy COA (ECOA)
Commander’s intent and guidance
1. The purpose of conducting an operational mission analysis is to understand the strategic and operational situations, the national command authorities, goals, the supported strategic commander’s intent and concept of operations, and to develop essential tasks and a clear multinational force mission statement.
2. At the conclusion of mission analysis, we will have achieved:
3. A common understanding of the problem,
4. The multinational force commander’s restated mission,
5. A determination of the most probable and challenging…or most dangerous potential change in the situation….
6. And finally, commander’s intent and planning guidance for course of action development, based on the staff’s mission analysis. 

4. Mission Analysis Joint Planning Group
Personnel
Air/Sea
Lift
Joint
Intelligence
Center
Time
Phased Force
Deployment
Data
Information
Operations
Comms
Core planning
group
Legal
Fires
1. Now that we have defined mission analysis, lets look at who conducts it.
 2. Leading, directing and managing a multinational force is a complex undertaking and at the operational level many organizations participate in the planning process. Therefore, the CTF commander, or CCTF, must organize his staff for planning in such a way that promotes sharing of information and facilitates an integrated planning effort by all involved. This includes all the distinctive functional staff sections, for example, logistics and intelligence, and supporting organizations.
3. The planning organization that conducts the operational mission analysis is the joint planning group, or CPG, and is usually directed by the C5, but could be the C3. The joint planning group includes representations from all staff functional areas and supporting organizations, as appropriate, to support the CTF commander’s decision-making with the most comprehensive analysis possible. This broad representation will also help ensure that the mission analysis supports the information requirements of all of those involved in the planning process.
Special
Operations
Forces
Engineer
Logistics
Psychological
Operations
Civil
Affairs
Component
Liaison
Officers
Public
Affairs

5. Task Steps Mission Analysis Determine the Facts Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission & Intent
Determine Limitations
Determine Centers of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Initial Force Structure Analysis
Initial Risk Assessment
Determine the End State
Develop Mission Statement
1. These are the steps for conducting mission analysis. We will cover each of these during the remainder of this module.
2. Determine the facts.
3. Develop assumptions
4. Analyze mission and intent.
5.Determine limitations
6.Determine centers of gravity
7.Identify tasks to be performed
8.Conduct initial force structure analysis
9.Conduct initial risk assessment
10.Determine the end state
11.Develop mission statement
12. Conduct mission analysis brief
Mission Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief

6. Determine Known Facts, Current Status, or Conditions
Determine the Facts
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Determine Centers of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Initial Force Structure Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief
Develop Mission Statement
Initial Risk
Assessment
Determine the End State
Initial Risk
Assessment
Determine the Facts
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Analysis
Determine Centers of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Initial Force Structure
Mission Analysis Brief
Develop Mission Statement
Determine the End State
Tasking from the national strategic command of the lead nation (HHQ) will normally include the following:
Situation update
Forces available for planning
Time constraints
Command relationships
Can come in the form of a WARNING ORDER, ALERT ORDER, or PLANNING ORDER
1.The first step in mission analysis is to determine the facts: determine what the multinational force staff knows about the situation and the environment in which the multinational force will operate
2. All staff sections, C1 through C6, and special staff such as legal and medical, gather facts relevant to their functional areas. We will briefly discuss examples of information important to the different staff areas.
3. The staff will start with the tasking from the national command authorities or the supported strategic commander, which contains initial planning guidance.
Mission Analysis

7. Determine Facts CTF Staff Example: Known Facts, Status, Conditions
Using all sources, identify significant and militarily relevant aspects of the environment and the situation
Staff sections determine:
Current status or condition
Other known facts
Monitor joint planning group (CPG) outputs
Example: Known Facts, Status, Conditions
Status as of 12 Nov 00
Dead 326
Injured 464
Missing 206
Affected 3M
Homeless 460K
Mt Canlaon Volcanic Activity
Last event 3 Nov
3 plumes 15 km high; ash blowing west 300 km
97,000 people evacuated from Canloan & La Carlota
Safe haven camp vicinity San Carlos f/ 100,000
Super Typhoon Julie
Hit southern Philippines 10 Nov (Visayas, N. Mindanao)
Negros - San Carlos camp (100K) loss of shelter
454,499 homeless
38 evacuation centers
1.The multinational force staff must use all available sources to determine the facts. Host nation government agencies and NGOs are especially important sources of information in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief contingencies.
2. The staff must also monitor the efforts of the Joint Planning Group. This is accomplished principally through their representatives to the CPG.
3. Based on a fictitious scenario, shown here are the known facts, status and existing conditions facing a Coalition Task Force (CTF).

8. Determine Facts C1-Personnel
Determine personnel status of forces
Develop or implement personnel status reporting system
CTF HQ staff augmentation requirements
C2 / Coalition Intelligence Support Element (CISE)
Define the operational environment
Describe the effects of the environment on military operations
Evaluate the threat (belligerents, disease, etc.)
Develop or implement multinational intelligence sharing plan
With CPG determine most challenging or dangerous potential change in the situation
1.This is the type of information the C1 needs to know:
2. At a minimum, the C1 needs to
3. Determine personnel status of forces
4.Develop or implement a personnel status reporting system
5. Determine the multinational force headquarters staff augmentation requirements.
5. The C2 has a great amount of information to gather and process. In addition to the list of items shown on this slide, other requirements include:
6. Analyze the CTF operations area, or AO. The CTF AO is an area of land, sea, and airspace defined by the strategic supported commander, in which the CTF commander conducts operations to accomplish the specific mission.
7. Conduct an intelligence preparation of the battlespace, and determine the status of friendly intelligence support
8. Develop the most likely and most challenging or dangerous potential change in the situation. In a humanitarian assistance operation, these might be due to changes in the weather, spread of disease, or the speed of CTF response to the crisis. In a situation involving combat operations, the C2 may develop the enemy’s or adversary’s most likely and most dangerous courses of action. In a peace enforcement operation, this may need to be done for more than one party of the conflict.

9. Determine Facts CPG C4-Logistics HHQ mission, intent, concepts
Forces available, readiness status
Review lift priority and allocation
Other organizations available
Host nation’s / coalition governments’ political situation
Host nation ability to respond
Time analysis
Logistical readiness of the force
Availability of support and infrastructure in operations area
Deployment estimates
Host nation support (HNS)
1. The joint planning group is responsible for identifying the following information:
a.      HHQ mission, intent, concepts
b. Forces available, readiness status of CTF structure
c. Lift priority and allocation
d. Other organizations available, such as host nation governmental agencies and NGOs
e. Host nation’s and other multinational force nations’ political situation
f. Host nation ability to respond
g. Time analysis
2. The last item, time analysis, is where many planners make mistakes
3. It is critical to balance the desire for detailed planning against the need for speed and, in certain situations, surprise in executing the mission. In time analysis, the CPG must: .First, determine time available. Second, understand the required time from beginning of planning to execution. Third, allocate the time necessary to complete all six steps in the commander’s estimate process.
Finally, consider concurrent and collaborative planning between the CTF CPG, higher headquarters, CTF components; that is, the national contingents, and national military headquarters and other organizations providing support to the CTF. 
4. The C4 examines the impact of the available infrastructure on the operation, and focuses on the availability of hard to obtain materials and services 
5.Specific facts needed by the C4 include: 
6. Logistical readiness of the national forces to be assigned to the CTF
Availability of support and infrastructure in the area of operations, Deployment estimates
Host nation support mechanisms, or agreements

10. Aerial Ports of Debarkation (APODs)
APOD Runway Maximum Fuel On-Site
Capability on ground Storage Maintenance
Palawan C-141 a/c a/c ,000 gal No
Cebu C-5 a/c 6 a/c ,000 gal Yes
City X
City Y
City Z
1. Planning for the deployment of the CTF to the AO is a critical C4 function. An analysis of the aerial ports of debarkation, or APODs, is necessary.
2. A similar overview on seaports of debarkation, or SPODs, should also be developed during mission analysis.
3. “MOG” is the acronym for maximum on ground and is used in logistics planning to refer to the maximum number of aircraft that can be on the ground at a particular APOD at the same time.

11. Time / Distance Factors
From To Distance Flight Time Steaming Time
Okinawa Palawan
Hawaii Palawan
Bangkok Palawan
Palawan Cebu
Manila Palawan
Manila Cebu
1. This graphic is a tool useful to the C4 in capturing data on time/distance factors, which is critical to the deployment estimate process.
2. As you can see so far, there is a lot of data collected during mission analysis, and it’s important that all information and products produced during this phase get captured for future use in the planning process.

12. C5-Plans and Policy Political considerations:
Determine Facts
C5-Plans and Policy Political considerations:
Over flight / basing rights
Transient personnel staging
Logistics support (facilities and HNS)
Agreements in force (status of forces, treaties, etc.)
 1. The C5- plans and policy- must look at political considerations at the operational level. These are extremely important issues and must be resolved early in the planning process. Key issues include:
 2. Over flight and basing rights
Transient personnel staging
Logistics support
3. With a multinational force, the political sensitivities of all of the troop contributing nations must be considered.
 4. In the absence of definitive policy directions from the national command authorities or higher headquarters, political considerations at the operational level may have to take the form of assumptions.
 5. The C6 must examine various aspects of communication and information systems, the most important being interoperability.
6. What are the available communications and information systems?
7. What is the communications readiness of the available forces?
8. What are the communications requirements to link the elements of the CTF as well as linking with appropriate government, civilian, and NGO and PVO entities?
6.The C6 may also want to assess the impact of topography of the AO on CTF communications.
C6-Communications
Available communications resources
Communications readiness of available forces
Communications requirements

13. Determine Limitations
Assumption
Determine the Facts
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Determine Centers of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Initial Force Structure Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief
Develop Mission Statement
Determine the End State
Determine the Facts
Develop Assumptions
A supposition on the current situation, or a presupposition on the future course of events, either or both assumed to be true in the absence of positive proof, necessary to enable the commander, in the process of planning, to complete an estimate of the situation and make a decision on the course of action.
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Determine Centers of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Initial Force Structure
Analysis
1. The next step in the mission analysis process is to develop assumptions.
2. We began by collecting data and facts, things that we know, and we must now make assumptions to fill in the gaps in our facts, in order to allow planning to continue despite what we do not know.
3. An assumption is
A supposition on the current situation, or a presupposition on the future course of events, either or both assumed to be true in the absence of positive proof, necessary to enable the commander, in the process of planning, to complete an estimate of the situation and make a decision on the course of action.
4. The key point to note is that the assumptions the CTF staff is concerned about are the only ones necessary in order for us to continue planning.
Initial Risk
Assessment
Analysis
Initial Risk
Assessment
Initial Risk
Assessment
Determine the End State
Develop Mission Statement
Mission Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief

14. Example: Planning Assumptions
Develop Assumptions
Replace missing or unknown facts in planning
May cover
Belligerent Situation
Friendly Situation
Success of supporting operations
Environment
Must be logical, realistic, and essential for planning to continue
Never assume away belligerent capabilities
Example: Planning Assumptions
1. Each staff section will probably have to develop assumptions focused on their functional areas
2. Here are some examples of assumptions, based on our Philippine disaster scenario.
3. Please note one important point: Assumptions made in planning must be revalidated or invalidated prior to execution. Therefore, they must be continuously monitored until they are proven to be facts or are overcome by events and are no longer relevant.
Host country will allow temporary basing of Troop Contributing Nations (TCNs)
APODs and sea ports of debarkation (SPODs) are operational
TCNs are self-sustaining for first 72 hours
Weather will remain favorable for duration of mission
No other contingencies for USPACOM for duration of mission
Host nation will be the CTF lead nation

15. Analyze HHQ Mission and Intent
Determine the Facts
Determine the Facts
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Initial Risk
Assessment
Determine Centers of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Initial Force Structure
Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief
Develop Mission Statement
Determine the End State
Political end state
HHQ mission, intent, and strategic military end state
Define and analyze the operations area
Identify tasks from outside the military
National public statements
National political influence: are there any limitations?
International organizations (IO), non-governmental organizations (NGO), & regional organizations involved
Contracts with private businesses
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Determine Centers of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Initial Force Structure
Analysis
1. The next step is to analyze higher headquarters’ mission and intent.
2. Understanding the political end state, higher headquarters mission and intent, and the strategic military end state, is critical to conducting a thorough mission analysis.
3. The joint planning group examines the initial warning order to determine these and the other information shown on this slide.
4. The core joint planning group will most likely perform this step, since the other members are busy gathering facts in their own areas of concern.
5. The object of this step is to glean all of the pertinent planning information; that is, guidance and instructions, from the warning order and other sources in order to ensure that all planners have the same understanding concerning the higher headquarters’ mission, intent, end state, and related information necessary for planning the operation.
 6. It is important to ask for clarification from higher headquarters, if necessary.
Initial Risk
Assessment
Analysis
Initial Risk
Assessment
Determine the End State
Develop Mission Statement
Mission Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief

16. Determine Limitations
Determine the Facts
Determine the Facts
Limitations placed on the CTF
Constraints: Things the CTF must do
Restraints: Things the CTF cannot do
Imposed by higher headquarters
Implied by conditions, circumstances
Develop Assumptions
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Determine Limitations
Determine Centers of Gravity
Determine Centers of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Initial Force Structure
Analysis
Initial Force Structure Analysis
1. Next, determine limitations. Limitations affect the commander’s freedom of action.
2. The joint planning group identifies all limitations that will affect the staff’s planning.
3. Constraints are required actions that limit freedom of action; for example, deploy forces to the disaster-affected areas within a specified period of time.
4. Restraints are actions the multinational force is prohibited from taking; for example, the multinational force cannot deny the local media access to the areas in which it is rendering humanitarian assistance.
Initial Risk
Assessment
Analysis
Initial Risk
Assessment
Determine the End State
Determine the End State
Develop Mission Statement
Develop Mission Statement
Mission Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief
Mission Analysis Brief

17. Determine Centers of Gravity
Determine the Facts
Determine the Facts
Definition: Those characteristics, capabilities, or localities from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight.
Analyze both threat and friendly centers of gravity
Used as a tool to help determine strengths and weaknesses
Some examples of friendly centers of gravity for HA / DR include:
Airlift, speed of response, coalition cohesion
Develop Assumptions
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Determine Limitations
Determine Centers
Of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Initial Force Structure
Analysis
Initial Force Structure Analysis
 1. Determine centers of gravity. This step helps us identify friendly and threat strengths.
 2. Threat centers of gravity are a key factor in development and analysis of friendly courses of action. For example, the Iraqi Republican Guards units were determined to be the enemy operational center of gravity during the Persian Gulf war. Destroying them was a way to reduce the Iraqi army’s freedom of action, physical strength and will to fight. In a disaster response scenario, the focus is on friendly courses of action, since the threat is not an opposing force, but rather, for example, the weather, time available, and disease.
3. Friendly centers of gravity are also key in our development and analysis of friendly courses of action. For example, cohesion of coalition partner nations may be a strength planners need to keep in mind so that it is not inadvertently undermined by a particular COA
4. In our present scenario, the operational center of gravity might be the capability of the CTF to rapidly deploy forces to the area of operation.
Initial Risk
Assessment
Analysis
Initial Risk
Assessment
Conduct Initial Risk Assessment
Determine the End State
Determine the End State
Develop Mission Statement
Develop Mission Statement
Mission Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief
Mission Analysis Brief

18. Determine Limitations
Identify Tasks
Determine the Facts
Determine the Facts
Develop Assumptions
Develop Assumptions
Specified -- Stated in the HHQ directive
Implied -- Not stated, but necessary to do the mission
Essential -- Of the above, those which must be done to achieve success
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Determine Limitations
Determine Centers of Gravity
Determine Centers
of Gravity
Determine Centers of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Identify Tasks to be
Performed
Initial Force Structure
Analysis
Initial Force Structure Analysis
1. Identify tasks. To identify tasks, the staff first lists all the specified tasks. These are usually stated in the higher headquarters’ warning order .
2. Next, develop implied tasks -- tasks that are not specifically assigned, but must be accomplished to perform the mission. These should not be inherent tasks; that is, actions staff or subordinate commands will do in accordance with standing operating procedures.
3. Finally, determine essential tasks -- from the first two categories, what are those tasks that are required to achieve the conditions that define success?
Initial Risk
Assessment
Analysis
Initial Risk
Assessment
Conduct Initial Risk Assessment
Determine the End State
Determine the End State
Develop Mission Statement
Develop Mission Statement
Mission Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief
Mission Analysis Brief

19. Mission Analysis Worksheet
Tasks
(1) Conduct needs assessment
(2) Deploy forces
(3) Provide HA/DR support to host nation
Specified
(1) Coordinate with NGOs & IOs
(2) Provide force protection
Implied
(1) Deploy forces
(2) Provide HA/DR support to host nation
(3) Provide force protection
1. Here is an example of a worksheet that can be used to record the tasks as they are identified.
Essential

20. Specified & Implied Tasks
TASK Army Navy AF USMC SOF x
1. Initial Assessment x
2. Coordinate w/ NGOs x
3. Port security
4. Provide security for camps x
5. Provide temporary shelter x x x
6. Provide ground transport
1.Every specified and implied task must be accomplished by a subordinate CTF organization, regardless of whether they are identified as essential tasks. Shown here is a matrix that is very useful for recording task assignments by type of forces. Another way to assign tasks is by national contingents in the CTF, and simply change the column headings of the matrix.
2 This list of tasks becomes the basis of tasks to subordinate units, when we start drafting the CTF operation order.
3. We also use this list to begin developing our time phased force deployment, or TPFDD document, that will show the deployment flow of the force over time. x
7. Distribute food & water x x
8. Provide air traffic control
All specified and implied tasks should be assigned to a CTF component

21. Initial Force Structure Analysis
Determine the Facts
Determine Centers of Gravity
Determine the Facts
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Identify Tasks to be
Performed
Initial Force Structure
Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief
Develop Mission Statement
Conduct Initial Risk Assessment
Determine the End State
Determine Centers
of Gravity
Capabilities required to accomplish tasks?
What non-traditional / non-military tasks can be performed by military forces?
What coalition forces do we already have?
What are the shortfalls?
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Determine Centers of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Initial Force Structure
Analysis
1. Next, determine what broad force capabilities are necessary to accomplish the essential tasks. For example, does the multinational force need forcible entry capabilities, say for peace operations? If this is a HA/DR contingency, does it need major engineer or medical capabilities?
2. The CTF commander uses this capabilities assessment to determine what forces he requires for execution, and compares these requirements against forces the coalition nations have made available. Ultimately, the CPG commander will need forces adequate to accomplish all specified and implied tasks the staff identified earlier.
3. Shortfalls, if any, must be addressed to higher headquarters.
4. A word of caution: This step is just an initial multinational force structure analysis. More specific requirements will be determined after the courses of action have been developed and analyzed!
Initial Risk
Assessment
Analysis
Initial Risk
Assessment
Determine the End State
Develop Mission Statement
Mission Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief

22. Initial Risk Assessment
Determine the Facts
Determine Centers of Gravity
Determine the Facts
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Identify Tasks to be
Performed
Initial Force Structure
Analysis
Conduct Initial Risk
Assessment
Mission Analysis Brief
Develop Mission Statement
Determine the End State
Determine Centers
of Gravity
Develop Assumptions
What are the risks associated with the mission assigned by HHQ (looting, mission creep)?
Do limitations, assigned tasks or assumptions create risk?
What degree of risk is HHQ willing to accept?
What can we do to minimize risk?
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Determine Centers of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
1. The next, important step, is to conduct an initial risk assessment. Risk is defined as the “probability and severity of loss linked to hazards”. Thus, there are two components to risk assessment: first, what is the adverse impact on our operation of a certain event or situation, and second, what is the probability, or likelihood, of such an event occurring. Furthermore, what measures can we take to mitigate against, or minimize, the risk. In risk assessment, the staff determines the initial broad risks associated with the mission.
2. For example, in a peace enforcement operation, we might say a forward presence of large contingent of military forces most likely will provoke a negative response by certain elements of the local population. We determine that the negative response will be limited to a probable initiation of demonstrations targeted against the forces. We determine that the likelihood, or probability, of this event-demonstrations-is very high, but that the advantages to our forward presence far outweigh the potential adverse impacts. We also determine, that even if such an event occurs, the adverse impact to our mission is minimal. We can also take measures to safely mitigate against such actions,
3. Other potential risks to consider in our assessment may be the damage to civilian infrastructure, terrorist activities, the weather…or other aspects
3.a. Key questions the planners should ask are: What are the particular risks associated with the mission? Do limitations, assigned tasks, or assumptions create risk? What degree of risk is higher headquarters willing to accept? What can we do to minimize risk? 
Initial Force Structure
Analysis
Initial Risk
Assessment
Analysis
Initial Risk
Assessment
Determine the End State
Develop Mission Statement
Mission Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief

23. Determine Limitations
Determine End State
Review HHQ guidance
Consider conditions for transition of the mission to nonmilitary organizations
Consider conditions necessary to support the population once military operations terminate
Specifically describe and record end state conditions
Example HA / DR end state conditions: food distribution reestablished, refugee camps established, basic infrastructure restored
Determine the Facts
Determine Centers of Gravity
Determine the Facts
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Identify Tasks to be
Performed
Initial Force Structure
Analysis
Conduct Initial Risk
Assessment
Determining the End
State
Mission Analysis Brief
Develop Mission Statement
Determine Centers
of Gravity
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Determine Centers of Gravity
Operational End State
Identify Tasks to be Performed
1. Determine the desired end state. Higher headquarters may have provided guidance and focus for multinational task force operations in an intent statement, which may include strategic or operational implications, or both.
2. As basic principle, end state conditions must contribute to ultimate success of the operation.
3. Conditions to end armed conflict that apply to an enemy force, might include eliminating its ability to continue aggressive operations, command and control certain sized operations, and support or reinforce operations For a HA/DR, it may be a return to the pre-crisis situation; for example, basic public services:electrical power, sewage, & water distribution restored.
4. It is important understand the difference between preliminary end state conditions, often described as a military end state, and a broader set of end state conditions, when military force is no longer the principal means to attain the strategic ends. The broader end state typically involves returning to a state of peace and stability and may include a variety of diplomatic, economic, informational and military conditions.
5. Achieving the desired end state seldom, if ever, ends international efforts to protect interests in a situation. The term end state simply represents the set of conditions necessary to resolve a crisis and transition from predominant use of the military instrument of national power to other instruments.
6. In our example, desired end state for CoalitionTask Force BAYANIHAN is to restore the infrastructure and leave a mechanism in place to allow the host government to maximize its relief efforts. Specifically, the task force end state includes achieving these conditions:
a.  Vital lines of communication adequate to alleviate human suffering reestablished.
b.  Displaced persons camps prepared for turnover to the host Government.
c. Systems to conduct search and rescue missions established.
d. A robust system to continue the coordination of international HA projects established.
Achieving the desired end state seldom, if ever, ends international efforts to protect interests in a situation. The term end state simply represents the set of conditions necessary to resolve a crisis and transition from predominant use of the military instrument of national power to other instruments.
Initial Force Structure
Analysis
Initial Risk
Assessment
Analysis
Initial Risk
Assessment
Determine the End State
Develop Mission Statement
Mission Analysis Brief
Mission Analysis

24. Determine Limitations Example CTF Mission Statement
Restated Mission
Who: CTF BAYANIHAN
What: Essential tasks
When: When directed by HHQ
Where: Combined operations area
Why: Operational end state
Determine the Facts
Determine Centers of Gravity
Determine the Facts
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Identify Tasks to be
Performed
Initial Force Structure
Analysis
Conduct Initial Risk
Assessment
Determining the End
State
Develop Mission
Statement
Mission Analysis Brief
Determine Centers
of Gravity
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Determine Centers of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Example CTF Mission Statement
Initial Force Structure
Analysis
1. From the list of essential tasks we develop a carefully crafted mission statement containing the who, what, when, where, and why for the operation
2. Remember, we are at the operational level and need to keep our re-stated mission at this level.
3. Here is an example mission statement for Task Force BAYANIHAN. It provides the five “Ws”- who, what, when, where, why.
4. After we have written the restated mission, it is time to present the staff’s mission analysis to the commander.
When directed, CTF BAYANIHAN conducts humanitarian assistance operations in support of the Armed Forces of the Philippines in the affected areas of the central Philippines in order to alleviate human suffering and restore critical infrastructure.
Initial Risk
Assessment
Analysis
Initial Risk
Assessment
Determine the End State
Develop Mission Statement
Mission Analysis Brief
Mission Analysis

25. Mission Analysis Brief
Determine Centers of Gravity
Determine the Facts
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Determine Limitations
Identify Tasks to be
Performed
Initial Force Structure
Analysis
Mission Analysis
Brief
Conduct Initial Risk
Assessment
Determining the End
State
Develop Mission
Statement
Determine Centers
of Gravity
Determine the Facts
Develop Assumptions
Chief of Staff or C3 / C5
Analyze Mission
& Intent
Purpose and agenda
Area of operations (Combined Operations Area) C2
Initial intelligence estimate
Most probable future situation
Most challenging / dangerous future situation
Center of Gravity Analysis
Determine Limitations
Determine Centers of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Initial Force Structure
Analysis
1.The last step in mission analysis is the mission analysis brief.
2. The brief should contain all of the information developed up to this point.
3. This slide and the next two slides show an example of a mission analysis briefing format and proposed topics. The chief of staff or C3 or C5 representative starts the briefing.
Initial Risk
Assessment
Analysis
Initial Risk
Assessment
Determine the End State
Develop Mission Statement
Mission Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief

26. Mission Analysis Brief
COS / C3 / C5
HHQ mission, intent & concept of operations
Forces currently available (from all troop contributing nations)
Assumptions
Limitations - must do & cannot do
Centers of gravity / decisive points - belligerent and friendly
Tasks to be performed:
Specified
Implied
Essential
Initial CTF force structure analysis
Risk assessment
End state
Proposed mission statement
Time analysis - including projected planning milestones
1. The C3 and C5 present most of the information, developed during the mission analysis process.

27. Mission Analysis BriefC1 C4
Others
Facts, assumptions, conclusions
Personnel actions
Personnel services
Other personnel related support
Supply
Services
Health services
Transportation
Other
Others as appropriate to the mission
1. The briefing concludes with presentations by the various staff sections, as required.
2. With the conclusion of the mission analysis briefing, the mission analysis step is complete.
3. Mission analysis is a lengthy, but necessary step in the commander’s estimate process that requires a trained, knowledgeable, and cohesive staff.

28. Mission Analysis End State
Common understanding of the problem and the mission
CTF restated mission (in clear, simple terms)
Most probable & most challenging or dangerous potential change in the situation
Commander’s guidance & approval to continue planning
1. Remember,
2. The purpose of mission analysis is to develop a common understanding of the problem and the mission and
3. to prepare a multinational force restated mission in clear and simple terms
4. We will have determined the most probable and most challenging or dangerous potential change in the situation.
5. The commander’s guidance and approval are necessary to continue planning.

29. Crisis Action Planning Process
Situation
Development II
Crisis
Assessment
III
Course of
Action
Development IV
Course of
Action
Selection V
Execution
Planning
OPORD
&
Deployment
Data Base VI
Execution
And/or
Warning
Order
Planning
Order
Alert
Order
Execute
Order I
Mission Analysis II
Course of Action
Development
1.The course of action development phase of crisis action planning implements national command authorities’ decision to develop military options for response to a crisis and for the CTF commander and staff, will usually begin upon receipt of the supported strategic commander’s warning order. This warning order will establish command relationships and identify the mission and any planning constraints.
2. Receipt of the warning order initiates the commander’s estimate process. As shown, mission analysis is the first step. It is perhaps the most important aspect of the commander’s estimate process, because it is the basis for all further planning.
III
Analysis of Opposing
Courses of Action IV
Comparison of Own
Courses of Action V
Commander’s
Decision
Commander’s Estimate Process

30. Task Steps Mission Analysis Determine the Facts Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission & Intent
Determine Limitations
Determine Centers of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Initial Force Structure Analysis
Initial Risk Assessment
Determine the End State
Develop Mission Statement
1. Remember, Mission Analysis is an 11-step process. It starts with determining the facts. Each staff section develops the facts needed by the coalition/combined planning group (CPG) to begin the planning process. In the absence of facts, we must develop assumptions so that we can continue the planning process. Next, we must analyze and understand the higher headquarters, mission and intent. Constraints and restraints will most likely be imposed on our operation. We must determine these limitations and factor them into our analysis.
2. Determining friendly and threat centers of gravity helps us focus on our strengths, and the key strengths of the threat. Next, we must list specified tasks, develop implied tasks, and determine the essential tasks….that is, those tasks that are required to achieve mission success. Determining required capabilities, the initial force structure, and shortfalls is the next step. This is just a preliminary analysis, and will be followed by more detailed analysis after the courses of action have been developed and analyzed. Performing an initial risk assessment is important. Our risk analysis can greatly affect how we conduct our operation.  
3. Based on higher headquarters guidance and other factors, we must determine the military operational level end state. Based on the foregoing steps, we then develop a mission statement for our multinational force. Finally, we brief our mission analysis to the multinational force commander. His approval and guidance is critical to continue planning.
Mission Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief

31. Questions?
1. Remember,
2. The purpose of mission analysis is to develop a common understanding of the problem and the mission and
3. to prepare a multinational force restated mission in clear and simple terms
4. We will have determined the most probable and most challenging or dangerous potential change in the situation.
5. The commander’s guidance and approval are necessary to continue planning.