1. Innovation Dynamics : Industry & Technology Roadmapping IAP 2003 ~ 1/21/03 Joost Bonsen jpbonsen@alum.mit.edu http://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/ jpbonsen@alum.mit.edu http://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/

2. Tech-Industry-level of observation. & analysis Broad faculty participation, Multi-Disciplinary Covering the Emerging Technology spectrum Viewing Business Implications & Context of Technology trends Unifying, Big-Picture perspective Long-term view, “futurecasting” Neutral-ground for discussion among industry players & MIT research sponsors Appealing to MBA, MEng, & industrially-inclined PhD students through 15.795 TRM Research Seminar Technology Roadmapping (TRM)

3. Technology Roadmapping Fall Semester 2002 Class Offering Emerging MIT Sloan research theme

4. Generalizing & Enriching Historic Technology & Demand Trends Historical Efforts –Moore’s Law –Electronic Devices –Sematech Roadmap –Disk Drives Ongoing –Optical Networking –Wireless Future –New technologies …

5. Moore’s Law 197019751980198519901995200020052010 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 6 10 7 10 8 10 9 Transistors per chip Year 80786 Pentium Pro Pentium 80486 80386 80286 8086 8080 4004 ? Source: Joel Birnbaum, HP, Lecture at APS Centennial, Atlanta, 1999 Source: Fine, MIT

6. 10 1 10 0 10 -1 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8 Number of chip components Feature size (microns) 10 10 12 10 18 10 14 10 16 10 -2 10 -3 Classical Age Historical Trend SIA Roadmap 2010 CMOS 1995 2000 2005 1970 1980 1990 Roadmap for Electronic Devices 4oK4oK Quantum Age 77 o K 295 o K Quantum State Switch Horst D. Simon Source: Fine, MIT

7. International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors ‘99 Year2005200820112014 Technology (nm)100705035 DRAM chip area (mm 2 )526603691792 DRAM capacity (Gb)864 MPU chip area (mm 2 )622713817937 MPU transistors (x10 9 )0.92.57.020.0 MPU Clock Rate (GHz)3.56.010.013.5 Source: Fine, MIT

8. Disk Drive Development 1978-1991 Disk Drive Generation 14” 8” 5.25” 3.5” 2.5” Dominant Producer IBM Quantum Seagate Conner Dominant Usage mainframe Mini-computer Desktop PC Portable PC Notebook PC From 1991-98, Disk Drive storage density increased by 60%/year while semiconductor density grew ~50%/year. Disk Drive cost per megabyte in 1997 was ~ $.10 Approx cost per Megabyte $750 $100 $30 $7 $2 Source: Fine, MIT

9. Voice growth TDM line rate growth Data growth Optical network capacity growth Capacity OC12 OC48 OC192 Optical Networking Time OC768 Source: Fine, MIT

10. 12345 TimelineNowStarting 3-5 years5-15 years StageDiscrete Components Hybrid Integration Low-level monolithic integration Medium Monolithic integration High-level monolithic integration ExamplesMUX/ DEMUX TX/RX module OADM TX/RX module OADM OADM, Transponder Switch Matrix Transponder Core Techno- logies FBGs, Thin- film, fused fiber, mirrors Silicon Bench, Ceramic substrates Silica Silicon InP InP, ?? How many Functions? 12-5 5-1010-XXX Industry Structure IntegratedIntegrated/ Horizontal Integrated / Horizontal Optical Technology Evolution: Navigating the Generations with an Immature Technology HELIX DOUBLE HELIX DOUBLE Dr. Yanming Liu, MIT & Corning Source: Fine, MIT

11. Supply Chain Volatility Amplification: “The Bullwhip Effect” Customer Retailer DistributorFactory Tier 1 Supplier Information lags Delivery lags Over- and underordering Misperceptions of feedback Lumpiness in ordering Chain accumulations SOLUTIONS: Countercyclical Markets Countercyclical Technologies Collaborative channel mgmt. (Cincinnati Milacron & Boeing) Equipment Source: Fine, MIT

12. Supply Chain Volatility Amplification: Machine Tools at the tip of the Bullwhip "Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain: The Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study," E. Anderson, C. Fine & G. Parker Production and Operations Management, Vol. 9, No. 3, Fall 2000, pp. 239-261. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 1961196319651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991 % Change, Year to Year % Chg. GDP% Chg. Vehicle Production Index % Chg. Net New Orders Machine Tool Industry Source: Fine, MIT

13. What are TRM essentials? Performance indicators Innovations over time, trendlines Physical limitations Value Chains Industry Structure …

14. Benefits of MIT Tech Roadmapping Observing Value Chain Evolution over time Language for discussion between management & technology world Structured basis for interaction Cross Value Chains, between academia & industry, spanning basic research through application Bridging between vertical “silos” of research – e.g. MicroPhotonics  LIDS  Media Lab  eBiz Center Publishing Collaborative Tech Roadmaps –Risk goes down, Capital Investment goes up (generally)

15. Other Roadmapping Efforts ITRS – International Technology Roadmapping for Semiconductors –http://public.itrs.net/http://public.itrs.net/ Electricity Technology Roadmap –http://www.epri.com/corporate/discover_epri/road map/http://www.epri.com/corporate/discover_epri/road map/ Steel Industry Technology Roadmap –http://www.steel.org/mt/roadmap/roadmap.htmhttp://www.steel.org/mt/roadmap/roadmap.htm Lighting Technology Roadmap –http://www.eren.doe.gov/buildings/vision2020/http://www.eren.doe.gov/buildings/vision2020/ Robotics & Intelligent Machines RM –http://www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/home.htmhttp://www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/home.htm

16. Technology AND Industry Roadmaps Not just focus on technologies Which technology gets adopted is often determined at the Industry level How technology is adopted (or not): what are economic & business issues

17. TRM Industry-Benefits Economic context for technology decisions & investments Lowering Risks for capital investments Not Stalin’s 5-year plans – rather, coordination & collaboration, co-optition

18. Components of MIT’s Technology Roadmapping Effort (are at Least) 1.Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems dynamics- like models of the bullwhip effect) 2.Industry structure dynamics (e.g., rigorous version of the double helix in Fine’s Clockspeed book) 3.Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamicize Porter-like analyses for players in the value chain) 4.Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor Industry Association's roadmap built around Moore's law) 5.Regulatory Policy Dynamics (e.g. Cross-National, Cross Sector Source: Fine, MIT

19. TRM Value Chain vs Component Dynamics Economic / Business Cycle Dynamics Industry Structure Dynamics Corporate Strategy Dynamics Customer Preference Dynamics Emerging Technology Dynamics Regulatory / Policy Dynamics CBEFDA

20. The Fine Helix Integral/ Vertical Modular/ Horizontal DOJ 1984 Telecom Act 1996 Niche Competitors 1998 2000 Pressure to Integrate Pressure to Dis-Integrate Economies of Scope (single provider, PTN) Market Power (local carriers) Broadband, Convergence High Complexity Organizational (and regulatory) Rigidities Source: Carroll, Srikantiah & Wolters 2000; Telecom.LFM769.Spr00.ppt

21. Generalizing & Quantifying Clockspeed Benefits to comparing between Industries Looking at Fast Industry Dynamics –Cross-species Benchmarking Quantify & Ultimately Model these Dynamics, improve theoretical understanding

22. Different Degrees of Industry Aggregation Communications Roadmap –Optical Communications MicroPhotonics –Wireless Personal Area Networking Cellular G3, G4, G5 Medical Imaging –MRI Functional MRI Nanotechnology –Precision Engineering AFM –Biological Engineering Bacterial Robotics

23. TRM Technology Domains (including, but not limited to…) Established Semiconductors Photonics Genomics / Proteomics / Celleomics Wireless MEMS Smart Materials Emerging Soft Lithography Neurotechnology Nanotechnology Organotechnology Biological Engineering Gerontechnology Autonomous Systems MIT Emerging Technology Matrix: http://web.media.mit.edu/~davet/notes/emerging-tech-mit.html

24. MIT Strategic Technology Thrusts 1.Information Technologies = Ever more sophisticated computation & communication, leveraging mind & media. 2.Biomedical Technologies = Medical engineering, perfecting the health & life sciences. 3.Tiny Technologies = Investigating and fabricating ever smaller systems, at scales from micro thru nano 4.Complex Systems = Large scale, socio-political & econo-technological systems. 5.Developmental Innovations = Appropriate and leapfrog technologies for tackling challenges in developing & emerging regions

25. Richly Interwoven MIT Themes 2. BioTech3. TinyTech 1. InfoTech 4. Complex Systems 5. Developmental Innovations

26. MIT Matrix 1. Info 2. Bio 3. Tiny 4. Compl’x 5. Develop’l MIT Research LCS/AI, Media, eBiz, Mkting POPI, CBE, Whitehd, McGrn MTL, ISN, MicroPht, MPC CEEPR, Sloan, AGS Digital Nations, TDP, Globalization, MISTI Academic Courses 1, 6, 18, MAS HST, BE, 6, 7 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 16 SDM, 6, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 21 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11, 15, 17 Extra- curriculars MediaTe ch Bio- Strategy TinyTechConsultingSEID, ATF MIT Alum Startups Akamai, Dir’ctHit Amgen, Biogen Gen’tec Surface- Lgx, eink, Angstr’m HP, Raytheon AfricaOnline, Evergreen Solar http://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/MIT-Emerging-Technology-Matrix.htm

28. Transformative Innovations, Emerging Hard & Soft Technologies, Disruptive Challenges Global Business Strategy, Accelerating International Development Effective Organizations, Culture-Crafting Entre- & Intra- preneurial Leadership Technology Entrepreneurship & Strategy Dynamics Dynamic, Networked Organizations Developmental Innovations, MicroFinance Innovation Global Leadership Core Sloan Themes

29. Unifying Strategic Themes Global Development Effective Leadership Transformative Innovations Finance, Accounting, & Economics Manag’nt Sci, Functional Disciplines Behavioral & Policy Science Strat & Org’ns Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths Unifying Strategic Themes MIT Sloan

30. Classic Disciplinary Strengths Global Development Entrepreneurial Effectiveness Transformative Innovations Finance, Accounting, & Economics Manag’nt Sci, Functional Disciplines Behavioral & Policy Science Strat & Org’ns Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths MIT Sloan

31. MIT Sloan Capabilities Global Development Effective Leadership Transformative Innovations Finance, Accounting, & Economics Manag’nt Sci, Functional Disciplines Behavioral & Policy Science Strat & Org’ns Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths Unifying Strategic Themes MIT Sloan Matrix Sloan Matrix

32. Sloan Matrix Global Development International Mgt Global Value Chains, TechMaps Entrepreneurial Policy Effective Leadership Financial Engineering, Management Business Dynamics Tech-Biz Ventures Transformative Innovations Virtual Customer Tech Strategy Finance, Accounting, & Economics Manag’nt Sci, Functional Disciplines Behavioral & Policy Science Strat & Org’ns Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths Unifying Strategic Themes Innovation Global Leadership Venture Finance

33. Mapping Sloan Faculty to MIT’s Emerging Strategic Tech Sectors 1. Info Tech 2. Bio Tech 3. Tiny Tech 4. Comp’x Systems 5. Develop’t Innovations Strategy MTIE Org/HR Finance Marketing Operat’ns Prod Dev

34. Faculty Interests @ Levels of Analysis Economic Growth Market Differentiation Venture Capital Valuing IP Trader Psychology Global Supply Chains Technology Roadmaps Business Dynamics Marketing- Engineering Links Buyer Decision-Making Global Strategy Technology Strategy Entrepreneurial Culture Group Dynamics Inventor Ethos Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation Theme Idea

35. Levels x Discipline Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation Theme Idea Finance, Accounting, & Economics Manag’nt Sci, Functional Disciplines Behavioral & Policy Science Strat & Org’ns Economic Growth Market Differentiation Venture Capital Valuing IP Trader Psychology Global Supply Chains Technology Roadmaps Business Dynamics Marketing- Engineering Links Buyer Decision-Making Global Strategy Technology Strategy Entrepreneurial Culture Group Dynamics Inventor Ethos

36. Research Clusters At Various Levels of Analysis… Technology Roadmap Technology Venture Observatory OpenSource Initiative Virtual Customer Initiative Emerging Tech-Biz Live Cases Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation Theme Idea

37. Weaving together Interest Clusters at Various Levels of Analysis… Technology Roadmap Technology Venture Observatory OpenSource Initiative Virtual Customer Initiative Emerging Tech-Biz Live Cases ION Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation Theme Idea

38. Innovation Observatories: Further Possibilities Technology Roadmap Technology Venture Observatory OpenSource Initiative Virtual Customer Initiative Emerging Tech-Biz Live Cases Global Development Observatory Venture Capital Observatory Creative Communities Observatory Decision Neuropsychology Lab Social Network Observatory Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation Theme Idea

39. Innovation Observatories: Technology Roadmapping Technology Roadmapping Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation Theme Idea

40. http://mph-roadmap.mit.edu/

41. EQUIPMENT MAKERS END USERS COMP- ONENTS SERVICE PROVIDERS CONTENT & APPLICS Silicon Gaas InP Polymers Steppers Etchers MEMS Insertion Etc.. Lasers Amplifiers Transceiver Filters Processors Memorys Fiber ASICS MEMS DSP’s Etc.. Routers Switches Hubs Base Stations Satellites Servers Software O/S Etc.. Wireless Backbone Metro Access Substations Satellites Broadcast Spectrum Communic Spectrum Etc.. Long distance Local Phone Cellular ISP Broadcast Hot Spots Cable TV Satellite TV VPN’s MVNO’s Etc.. Music Movies Email VoIP POTS Shopping ERP SCM, CRM Surveillance eBusiness Etc.. Computers Phones Media Players Cameras PDA’s Weapons Etc.. NETWORK OWNERS Proposed MIT Communications Roadmap Consortium DEVICES MATERIALS & PROCESS EQUIP Business Consumer Gov’t Military Education Medical Etc.. MPC, MTL LIDS, RLE eBusiness, Oxygen, Media Lab ITC LCS Source: Prof. C. Fine, MIT

42. Why Value Tech Roadmapping? Trends -- Statement of historic performance improvement and extrapolations into future Consensus – Shared opinion about likely future developments Commitment -- Shared willingness to pursue particular technologies Co-Investment -- Basis for agreement on pre-competitive research funding Understanding -- Method of understanding broader socio-economic context of broad technology trends

43. 15.795 Technology Roadmapping Professor Charlie Fine, TA Joost Bonsen Fall 2002 This seminar will explore the purposes and development of Technology Roadmaps for systematically mapping out possible development paths for various technological domains and the industries that build on them. Data of importance for such roadmaps include rates of innovation, key bottlenecks, physical limitations, improvement trendlines, corporate intent, and value chain and industry evolutionary paths. The course will build on ongoing work on the MIT Communications Technology Roadmap project, but will explore other domains selected from Nanotechnology, Bio-informatics, Geno/Proteino/Celleomics, Neurotechnology, Imaging & Diagnostics, etc. Thesis and Special Project opportunities will be offered. (An example Masters Research Seminar)

44. TRM Class Goals Collaborative efforts between 1-3 students, MIT researchers, & Industry Sponsors Across MIT research areas Cross Industry Benchmarking Partnered with Industrial Sponsors Attract students passionate about technology sector, however broadly or narrowly defined Committed to producing coherent & complete Tech Roadmap (Draft 1.0) during Fall Semester

45. Engaging Masters Students in MIT Sloan Research Agendae Business school disconnect Unfortunate and sub-optimal We’re prototyping a new path Help show that it works!

46. Seminars & Conferences Part of 9 units is required attendance of relevant technology seminars throughout MIT. Find them through http://web.mit.edu Google & so forth. Plus Word-of-Mouth.

48. High TRM Student Expectations Serious commitment of time & interest Literature review & substantial interviews Attend talks & seminar series in that tech sector, that’s part of the course –E.g. http://web.mit.edu/mphotonics/www/sem- series.shtmlhttp://web.mit.edu/mphotonics/www/sem- series.shtml Data gathering & presentation smithing Crafting a draft PPT & DOC by semesters end

49. TRM Academia Speakers (and Labs to Engage) Marty Schmidt, MTL / MEMS –http://www-mtl.mit.edu/mtlhome/http://www-mtl.mit.edu/mtlhome/ Bruce Rosen, Martinos / NeuroMRI –http://hst.mit.edu/martinos/http://hst.mit.edu/martinos/ Bob Brown & Alice Gast, MIT’s Research Directors Ned Thomas, Soldier Nanotech –http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/nr/2002/isnqa.htmlhttp://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/nr/2002/isnqa.html Eric Lander, Whitehead / Genomics –http://www.wi.mit.edu/news/genome/lander.htmlhttp://www.wi.mit.edu/news/genome/lander.html Bob Langer, Biomaterials, Drug Delivery –http://web.mit.edu/cheme/langerlab/langer.htmlhttp://web.mit.edu/cheme/langerlab/langer.html Victor Zue & Rod Brooks, LCS/AI Labs, Project Oxygen –http://www.lcs.mit.edu/ & http://www.ai.mit.edu/ & http://oxygen.lcs.mit.edu/http://www.lcs.mit.edu/http://www.ai.mit.edu/http://oxygen.lcs.mit.edu/ Doug Lauffenberger, Biological Engineering –http://web.mit.edu/be/http://web.mit.edu/be/ E. Sachs, 3D Printing –http://web.mit.edu/tdp/www/http://web.mit.edu/tdp/www/ Neil Gershenfeld, Media Lab / Ctr Bits & Atoms –http://cba.mit.edu/http://cba.mit.edu/ Tom Knight, AI Lab / Computation & Biology –http://www.ai.mit.edu/people/tk/tk.htmlhttp://www.ai.mit.edu/people/tk/tk.html

50. TRM Seeds Working Collaborations w/ MIT Labs & Sponsors Generalizing beyond MicroPhotonics Center & Communication Roadmap Engaging Lab Directors as speakers in 15.795 TRM seminar –Ask them to speculate about the important trends in their areas & to proto-roadmap –What would they like? What would their sponsors like?

51. TRM Literature MicroPhotonics Center –http://mph-roadmap.mit.eduhttp://mph-roadmap.mit.edu Example Theses –http://mitsloan.mit.edu/research/clockspee d/main.htmlhttp://mitsloan.mit.edu/research/clockspee d/main.html References –http://www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/http://www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/

52. Fin Joost Bonsen jpbonsen@alum.mit.edujpbonsen@alum.mit.edu