1. The Insecurity of Ecosystem Services Jaboury Ghazoul Chair of Ecosystem Management ETH Zurich

2. Ecosystem Service Framework IPBES UN Sustainable Devel. Goals CBD Aichi targets MEA Social and political roots EU Biodiversity Strategy 2020 Ecological science

3. Are we oversimplifying societal complexities?

4. Californian Almonds 5 November 2013

5. Crop is forecast to be 2% down to around 800,000 tonnes 2013 40 Per cent drop in bee population will hit the pollination of crops 1950196019701980199020002010 1 2 3 4 5 6 Millions of hives Costs & returns (/ha) in 2014 Total cost of production: $6,834 Of which pollination (15%): $926 Gross returns: $10,049 Profit:$3,215 Land for pasture: $800 ha -1 Land for almond: $10,000 ha -1

6. Indian Coffee

7. Size/distance interaction Coffee production – Shade tree diversity Exotic tree density Shade – Coffee density Irrigation Lime Coffee trees Forest patches Pollinators Many interactions and many trade-offs

8. CAFNET Mela – Ponampet 20118 Contribution to wellbeing Strategies ++++- L ANDSCAPE L ABELLING -+- - P ROTECTED A REA +++- C ARBON & W ATER PES Power Stakeholders

9. History of Coffee in India: A history of power re-allocation British Raj 1834 Independence 1947 Liberalisation 1980s British Planters Coffee and Pepper Traditional farmers Rice and Cardamom Expansion of coffee area (Arabica to Robusta) Forest conversion and encroachment Urbanisation 2000s Adivasi Shifting cultivation Family farms (< 1 ha) Cardamom or Coffee/pepper Subsistance rice Intensification 1990s Intensification of coffee farms Grevillea robusta Sun coffee Rural to urban migration Growth of tourism Forest Rights Act Commercial estates (> 50 ha) Coffee/pepper Migrant labour Principal driver of change Colonial government National government Green Revolution Private farmers Global markets Urbanisation

10. Poole Harbour

11. Poole Harbour PES scheme Local authorities object to paying farmers for reductions in agricultural nitrogen pollution. Use of development funds to address agricultural pollution is unfair and politically unacceptable given that agriculture contributes 85% of total nitrogen load Farmers and landowners are unwilling to accept long-term contracts for nutrient reduction measures. Collective action is a significant challenge, particularly when … spatial scales are large (e.g., water quality and flood risk services) … there are many affected actors Improving water quality by nutrient offsetting

12. Oil Palm in Cameroon

13. Constraints to productivity and profitability Unreliable water supply Expensive agricultural inputs Ageing plantations Lack of good quality seedlings Low milling efficiency Theft of fruit Lack of skilled and local labour Conflicts over tenure Government policies Declining prices Photos by Patrice Levang

14. Declining palm oil price Palm oil monthly price: US$ per metric tonne 20102011201320122014 $1240 $900 $860 $700 $1160 $634

15. Opportunities of high prices Company – smallholder interactions Opportunities provided by: Improved milling Subsidized fertilizers Access to high quality seedlings Opportunities limited by: Inefficient millingExpensive fertilizers Poor quality seedlings Implications of low prices Investing in large concessions is less attractive

16. The Complexities of Decision-Making Land-use decisions Market opportunities Access to market Prices and demand Processing opportunities Incentives Government subsidy schemes Access to credit and materials Payment for ES schemes Formal institutions Legal arrangements governing access to land and resources Property rights to land and resources Informal Institutions Customary rules, norms, beliefs governing access to land and resources Ecological factors Productivity, soil, water, biodiversity, risk reduction Household factors Age, gender, size, labour, income … ExogenousEndogenous

17. Navigating complexity

18.  Quality of life  Livelihood capitals  Perceptions  Strategies… StakeholdersPolicy and Markets  Norms  Institutions  Markets …  Geomorphology  Land cover  Hydrology Geophysical system Goods, Services and Dynamics  Crops, timber …  Soil fertility  Pollination …

19. Companion Modelling

20. Power over ecosystem services is not distributed equally Endogenous and exogenous pressures shape land use change, and affect the relative merits of ecosystem service strategies There are winners and losers, always Benefits of ecosystem services are not distributed equally Contexts are complex … and changeable

21. and integrate our thinking across a complex world of social and political inequalities and trade-offs We need to look well beyond our disciplinary interests … Good luck!