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Is an ecosystem more than a list of its parts?
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Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. Figure 9.3 9-4 Greenhouse Diagram - Energy Loss
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Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display.
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Are the data correct? Is the model system complete? Are the links correct? Do we properly understand the dynamic influences on how materials flow among the parts?
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Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. Figure 9.1 9-1 Source: Data from Dave Keeling and Tim Whorf, Scripps Institute of Oceanography.
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Climate skeptics: “Most emission of carbon and methane is from natural sources, so human activity cannot be responsible for increases in carbon dioxide.” What do you think about this claim?
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Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. Temperature/120 yrs ago
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Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. Temperature/1,000 yrs ago Figure 9.11c
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Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. Temperature/10,000 yrs ago
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Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. Temperature/900,000 yrs ago Figure 9.11a 9-11 Source: Data from National Climate Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA, 1998.
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How does climate affect ecosystems? How do ecosystem responses alter “ecosystem services”?
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Global scale Is the carbon cycle responsible for changes in global climate? How will warming influence major ecosystem cycles? Landscape scale What good is “ecosystem X”? How many components (diversity) are needed to provide ecosystem services?
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Bruce E. Johnson (Z Magazine, 2002) Lloyd’s of London executive is more worried about global warming than terrorism – why? What are the major potential changes?
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Question: how will ANWR respond to global warming? Identify the materials most important to the overall question [hint: focus on carbon] Identify the relevant “compartments” Indicate a hypothesis about how these materials move among compartments Indicate possible important influences on those exchanges
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