1. 1 Expansions to NOAA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability Progress in 2008 October 7, 2008 Paula Davidson*, Rohit Mathur, Jeff McQueen, Scott Jackson, Ivanka Stajner, Ken Carey * NWS Manager, Air Quality Forecast Capability

2. 2 Outline Background on NAQFC Progress in 2008 -Operational products: -Experimental products -Developmental testing Coordination with Partners Looking Ahead

3. 3 National Air Quality Forecast Capability Current and Planned Capabilities, 10/08 Improving the basis for AQ alertsImproving the basis for AQ alerts Providing AQ information for people at riskProviding AQ information for people at risk Near-term Operational Targets: Ozone, smoke coverage extended NationwideOzone, smoke coverage extended Nationwide Longer range: Quantitative PM 2.5 predictionQuantitative PM 2.5 prediction Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hoursExtend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours Include broader range of significant pollutantsInclude broader range of significant pollutants FY08 Prediction Capabilities: Operations:Operations: Ozone, expanded from EUS to CONUS, 9/07 Smoke implemented over CONUS, 3/07 Experimental testing:Experimental testing: Ozone upgrades Smoke predictions over AK Developmental testing:Developmental testing: components for particulate matter (PM) forecasts 2005: O 3 2007 : O 3, smoke

4. 4 Model Components: Linked numerical prediction system Operationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputer NAM mesoscale NWP: WRF-NMMNAM mesoscale NWP: WRF-NMM CMAQ for AQ; HYSPLIT for smokeCMAQ for AQ; HYSPLIT for smoke Observational Input: NWS weather observations; NESDIS fire locationsNWS weather observations; NESDIS fire locations EPA emissions inventoryEPA emissions inventory National Air Quality Forecast Capability End-to-End Operational Capability Gridded forecast guidance products On NWS servers: www.weather.gov/aq and ftp-serversOn NWS servers: www.weather.gov/aq and ftp-servers On EPA serversOn EPA servers Updated 2x dailyUpdated 2x daily Verification basis, near-real time: Ground-level AIRNow observationsGround-level AIRNow observations Satellite smoke observationsSatellite smoke observations Customer outreach/feedback State & Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPAState & Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA Public and Private Sector AQ constituentsPublic and Private Sector AQ constituents AQI: Peak Oct 4

5. 5 Progress in 2008 Operational Products: –Ozone: Coast-to-Coast (CONUS) guidance implemented 9/07; 2008 updates for emissions, WRF-NMM –Smoke: CONUS guidance implemented 3/07; 12/07 upgrade to full vertical resolution Experimental Products: –Ozone: CB-05 chem mechanism, developing prototypes for AK, HI –Smoke: Expanded coverage to AK, 6/08 Developmental Products: –Aerosols: Developmental testing providing comprehensive dataset for diagnostic evaluations. (CONUS) CMAQ (aerosol option), testing CB05 chemical mechanismCMAQ (aerosol option), testing CB05 chemical mechanism –Prototypes for AK, HI (ozone); HI (smoke) –Dust and smoke inputs: testing dust contributions to PM2.5 from global sources Preliminary tests combining dust with CMAQ-aerosolPreliminary tests combining dust with CMAQ-aerosol Case studies combining smoke inputs with CMAQ-aerosolCase studies combining smoke inputs with CMAQ-aerosol –R&D efforts continuing in chemical data assimilation, real-time emissions sources, advanced chemical mechanisms

6. 6 Verification Statistics: Example Max 8-hr O 3 081507 Eder et al. 2008 Fraction Correct: 0.92

7. 7 Fraction Correct Progress from 2005 to 2007: Ozone Prediction Summary Verification 2005 Experimental, Eastern US Approved 8/05 to replace IOC (NE US) in operations 2006 Operational, Eastern US 2005 Initial Operational Capability (IOC) Operational, NE US Domain Operational Experimental 2007 Experimental, Contiguous US Approved 9/07 to replace Eastern US config in operations Experimental CONUS EUS EUS NEUS

8. 8 Progress from 2007 to 2008: CONUS O 3 Prediction Summary Verification 2008 CONUS, wrt 85ppb Threshold JJA: 0.980 Operational 2007 Contiguous US (CONUS) Implemented 9/07 to replace Eastern US config in operations JJA: 0.974 Experimental CONUS CONUS

9. 9 Prediction Accuracy and Ozone Thresholds Effect on FC: moderate reduction

10. 10 Smoke Predictions Summary: Warm Season, 2007 and 2008 FC generally > 0.7 FC Target not established for qualitative smoke tool Based on satellite AOD; column verification only TS cum = 0.159; Target = 0.08 (Column verification) TS cum = 0.133 2007 FC generally > 0.6 2008

11. 11 Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Experimental Testing Experimental Predictions Publicly available, real-time Ozone:   CMAQ with advanced gas-phase chemical mechanism CB05 – –more comprehensive Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) reactions – –challenge: more O 3 with CB05 – –regional implications: CA, NE US Smoke:   Testing over AK domain – –new GOES-W smoke verification in development – –challenge: little fire activity in 2008 weather.gov/aq-expr weather.gov/aq ExperimentalOperational

12. 12 Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Experimental vs. Operational O 3 at 85 ppb Experimental vs Operational, 85ppb: FC decreases in exptl predictions Operational Experimental

13. 13 Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Experimental vs Operational O 3 at 76 ppb Experimental vs. Operational, 76 ppb: FC decreases in exptl predictions Operational Experimental

14. 14 Developmental Testing, Summer 2008 Developmental Predictions: Focus group access only, real-time as resources permit Real-time Testing, Aerosols from NEI sources:   CMAQ, Gas-phase CB05 June 10   aerosol chemical reactions (AERO- 4) with heterogeneous pathways   sea salt emissions and chemistry included in aerosol module Expanded domains:   HI smoke   Exploring HI, AK ozone Developmenta l CB-05 fine particles PM 2.5

15. 15 Developmental Aerosol Predictions: Summary Verification, 2008 August 17, 2007 August 16, 2008 Emissions Correction

16. 16 Aerosol Summary: 2008 Lower threshold

17. 17 Partnering with AQ Forecasters Focus group of state and local AQ forecasters: Participate in real-time developmental testing of new capabilities, e.g. aerosol predictionsParticipate in real-time developmental testing of new capabilities, e.g. aerosol predictions Provide feedback on reliability, utility of test productsProvide feedback on reliability, utility of test products Emphasize local episodes/case studiesEmphasize local episodes/case studies Meet regularly to examine test predictions, discuss feedback, potential improvementsMeet regularly to examine test predictions, discuss feedback, potential improvements Work together with EPA’s AIRNow & NOAAWork together with EPA’s AIRNow & NOAA Forecaster Coordination: WFO and NCEP/HPC forecasters provide weather information for partner AQ forecastersWFO and NCEP/HPC forecasters provide weather information for partner AQ forecasters –Web-site for AQ forecasters, interactive discussion on event-driven basis

18. PHL O 3 and aerosol predictions -- Ryan, 2008 Experimental Ozone Guidance, 6/17 -9/10, 1200 UTC Observed Mean: 64.5 ppbv Operational Bias: +4.8 ppbv Experimental Bias: +8.3 ppbv Increased over-prediction consistent day-to-day as weather conditions changed. Developmental aerosol guidance, 7/12 -9/10, 1200 UTC Daily 24-hr max

19. 19 National Air Quality Forecast Capability Looking Ahead Nationwide ozone and particulate matter predictions Expanding ozone & smoke to nationwide coverage, Target: FY10 andExpanding ozone & smoke to nationwide coverage, Target: FY10 and Begin quantitative particulate matter predictions, Target: FY14Begin quantitative particulate matter predictions, Target: FY14 Providing information Nationwide on when/where poor AQ is expectedProviding information Nationwide on when/where poor AQ is expected Reducing losses to life (50,000) each year from poor AQReducing losses to life (50,000) each year from poor AQ Reducing economic losses ($150B each year) from poor AQReducing economic losses ($150B each year) from poor AQ

20. 20 National AQF Capability: Next Steps Developing Particulate matter components: Smoke from large fires: experimental testing in AK, HISmoke from large fires: experimental testing in AK, HI Components for quantitative PM forecast capability:Components for quantitative PM forecast capability: –Objective satellite products for verification (ongoing) –Aerosols predictions from anthropogenic source emissions in inventories: continued development/testing/analysis– testing advanced chemical mechanisms –Further component development, chemical data assimilation, dust, speciated fire emissions, “in-line” coupling of weather and AQ simulation –Developmental and experimental testing, integrated quantitative PM capability –Target operational implementation for initial PM forecasts, NE US: FY14 Expanding, Improving Ozone forecast guidance Closer coupling of AQ with NAM; treatments/resolution, horizontal boundary conditions…Closer coupling of AQ with NAM; treatments/resolution, horizontal boundary conditions… Development of AK, HI capabilities; target operational implementation in FY10Development of AK, HI capabilities; target operational implementation in FY10 Extend forecast range to Day 2 and beyondExtend forecast range to Day 2 and beyond

21. 21 Acknowledgments: AQF Implementation Team Members OCWWS Jannie Ferrell Outreach, Feedback OCIO Cindy Cromwell, Allan Darling, Bob BungeData Communications OST/MDL Jerry Gorline Dev. Verification OST/MDL Marc Saccucci, Tim Boyer, Dave RuthNDGD Product Development OSTKen Carey, Ivanka StajnerProgram Support NESDIS/NCDC Alan HallProduct Archiving NOAA/OAR Jim MeagherNOAA AQ Matrix Manager NCEP Jeff McQueen, Pius Lee, Marina Tsidulko, Youhua Tang,EMC AQF model interface development, testing and integration Ho-Chun Huang, Dongchul Kim *Sarah Lu Global data assimilation and feedback testing (NASA, NESDIS) *Brad Ferrier, *Dan Johnson, *Eric Rogers, *Hui-Ya ChuangWRF/NAM coordination Geoff ManikinSmoke Product testing and integration John Ward, Brent Gordon, Chris MageeNCO transition and systems testing Robert Kelly, Bob Bodner, Andrew OrrisonHPC coordination and AQF webdrawer * Guest Contributors NOAA/OAR Daewon Byun, Shaocai Yu, Daiwen Kang, Hsin-Mu Lin, CMAQ development, adaptation of AQ simulations for AQF David Wong, Daniel Tong, Tianfeng Chai Roland Draxler, Glenn Rolph, Ariel SteinHYSPLIT adaptations NOAA/NESDIS Shobha Kondragunta, Jian ZengSmoke Verification product development Matt Seybold, Mark RuminskiHMS product integration with smoke forecast tool EPA/OAQPS Chet Wayland, Phil Dickerson, Scott Jackson, Brad JohnsAIRNow development, coordination with NAQFC EPA/ORD Rohit Mathur, Ken Schere, Jon Pleim, Tanya Otte, CMAQ development, adaptation of AQ simulations for AQF Jeff Young, George Pouliot, Brian Eder

22. 22 Operational AQ forecast guidance www.weather.gov/aq Further information: www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/air_quality Smoke Products Implemented March, 2007 CONUS Ozone Expansion Implemented September, 2007

23. 23 Appendix

24. 24 Updates in 2008 Operational Products WRF update (March, 2008) – –Size: Expanded domain by 18% – –Model Parameterizations: Implemented gravity wave mountain drag parameterization, modified horizontal advection for better mass conservation, Improved surface longwave radiation calculation, Improved soil moisture calculations OCONUS – –Data assimilation: Upgraded GSI with NMM bkgd error covariances, more satellite obs Ozone Predictions: Emissions Updates (May, 2008) – –Point, area and mobile source emissions: updated based on NEI (2005) and projected for the current year. EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality on-road emissions estimates EGU sources: 2006 CEM data projected for 2008. – –Biogenic sources: updated with BEIS 3.13 Smoke Predictions (December, 2007): – –Increased vertical resolution: now at full NAM 60-layer resolution – –Increased computational efficiency, faster product delivery

25. 25 Continuing Science Upgrades Improvements to the expanding NAQFC Continuing R&D required OAR and EPA working actively with NWS to provide prototype capabilities for pre-operational development, testing experimental production, and implementationOAR and EPA working actively with NWS to provide prototype capabilities for pre-operational development, testing experimental production, and implementation Assuring quality with science peer reviews: Design review of major system upgrades (initial, yearly upgrades)Design review of major system upgrades (initial, yearly upgrades) Diagnostic evaluations with field campaigns and evaluationsDiagnostic evaluations with field campaigns and evaluations Publication of T&E in peer-reviewed literaturePublication of T&E in peer-reviewed literature Ozone Capability –Otte et al. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 367-385 (2005) –Lee et al., J Applied Meteorology and Climatology, in press (2007) –Mckeen et al., J. Geophys. Res. 110, D21307 (2005) –Yu, et al., J. Geophys. Res. (2007) Smoke Tool –Prados et al., J. Geophys. Res. 112, D15201 (2007) –Kondragunta et al., submitted for publication –Rolph et al., submitted for publication –Zeng and Kondragunta, ms. in preparation –Ruminski, Kondragunta, Draxler and Zeng, in preparation

26. 26 National Air Quality Forecast Capability Major Components: IOC NWP Model NAM/Eta-12NOAA/NWS AQ Module: Emissions Preprocessor PREMAQ NOAA/OAR and EPA/ORD AQ Module: Air Quality Reactive Transport CMAQ NOAA/OAR and EPA/ORD WeatherObservations EPA’s National Emissions Inventory: EPA/OAQPS IT /Comms NOAA/NWSandEPA/OAQPS NWP Post-processors for AQ Modules for AQ Modules

27. 27 Smoke Forecast Tool: What is it? Overview Passive transport/dispersion computed with HYSPLIT & WRF-NAM (or GFS, OCONUS). 24-hr spin-up, 48-hour prediction made daily with 6Z cyclePassive transport/dispersion computed with HYSPLIT & WRF-NAM (or GFS, OCONUS). 24-hr spin-up, 48-hour prediction made daily with 6Z cycle Fire Locations NESDIS/HMS: Filtered ABBA product (only fires with observed associated smoke)NESDIS/HMS: Filtered ABBA product (only fires with observed associated smoke)Emissions USFS’ BlueSky algorithm for emitted PM2.5USFS’ BlueSky algorithm for emitted PM2.5 Smoke Transport/dispersion HYSPLIT (Lagrangian); plume rise based on combustion heat and meteorologyHYSPLIT (Lagrangian); plume rise based on combustion heat and meteorologyVerification Based on satellite imagery for footprint of extent of observed smoke in atmospheric column exceeding threshold of detectionBased on satellite imagery for footprint of extent of observed smoke in atmospheric column exceeding threshold of detection

28. 28 Smoke Forecast Tool Major Components NWP Model NAM/WRF-NMMNOAA/NWS HYSPLIT Module: NOAA/OAR WeatherObservations USFS’s BlueSky Emissions Inventory: USFS NWP Post-processors for AQ Modules for AQ Modules NESDIS HMS Fire Locations Verification: NESDIS/GASP Smoke

29. 29 New Threshold and FC Miss at Lower Threshold Good Good Miss Miss FC decrease FC increase Prediction Observation Good at Lower Threshold Good Pred = Obs New Threshold Old Threshold

30. 30 Developmental Aerosol Predictions: Summary Verification, 2007-2008 2007 Emissions Correction 2008

31. 31 Daily Aerosol Verification March 5 – 20, 2008 Note: sudden improvement from March 16