1. Dr. Lawson Brigham Deputy Director and Alaska office Director, US Arctic Research Commission PhD. (Cambridge, 2000) M.S. (Rensselear Polytechnic Inst., 1979) Current Research Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Future Arctic Marine Transportation Future of the Russian Arctic and Northern Sea route.

2. Changing Marine Access in the Arctic Ocean ARCUS 16 th Annual Meeting & Arctic Forum 2004 Washington, D.C. 13-14 May 2004 Lawson Brigham Alaska Office, U.S. Arctic Research Commission usarc@acsalaska.net

3. Outline Arctic Icebreaker Operations 1977-2003 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Observations ACIA Sea Ice Projections 2000-2100 Canadian Archipelago/Northwest Passage Northern Sea Route Summary

4. Icebreaker Transits to the North Pole and Trans-Arctic Voyages 1977-2003 44 transits to the North Pole (36 Russia, 3 Sweden, 2 Germany, 2 USA, 1 Canada) 5 trans-Arctic voyages (1991, 1994, 1996)

6. 8 May – 19 June 1987

7. 25 May 1987

8. July – August 1994

9. AOS 94

11. Polar Sea real-time satellite imagery AOS 94

12. 23 August 1994 near the North Pole Historic Rendezvous: Polar Sea, Louis S. St-Laurent, & Yamal

13. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Project of the Arctic Council - Evaluate: climate variability, climate change, and increased UV and their consequences - Use of General Circulation/Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Greenhouse Gas Scenarios - Project future Arctic changes for: 2020, 2050, and 2080 - Sea ice changes for 20th and 21st Centuries - Scientific report & synthesis released late 2004

14. “The Arctic’s Response to Climate Change” (from ACIA)  Increases in winter surface air temperatures  Increases in precipitation  Thawing of previously permanently frozen ground  Reductions in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness  Variations in the ranges of animals and ecosystems  Increases in storm surges and coastal erosion  Increases in Siberian river outflows to the Arctic Ocean  Warming of Arctic oceanic waters  Record low levels of stratospheric ozone  Increases in ground levels of ultra violet radiation

15. Sea Ice Observational data show Observational data show a decrease of coverage a decrease of coverage Decrease is largest in largest in summer summer Decrease is Decrease is largest since largest since late 1980s late 1980s Sea Ice Extent (km 2 )

16. 16 September 2002

17. 16 September 2003

18. 16 September 2002 16 September 2003

19. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Climate model projections of sea ice extent: 2000 - 2100 2000 - 2100 MarchSeptember MARSEPT

20. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

21. Challenges of the Canadian Archipelago and the Northwest Passage GCM resolution constraints High inter-annual variability of sea ice coverage

22. Regional Eastern Arctic l l Canadian Ice Service (2004) km 2

23. Regional Western Arctic Canadian Ice Service (2004) (km 2 )

24. The Northern Sea Route Ob’ and Yenisey Rivers INSROP (1999)

28. ACIA Regional NSR Sea Ice Projections

29. Northern Sea Route: Navigability Projected for 2000 – 2100 (50% ice cover) Year

31. Summary Points - Observed retreat of Arctic sea ice is real. - Icebreakers have operated in the Central Arctic Ocean during summer since 1977. - Extensive & increasing open water areas in summer around the Arctic Basin (and Alaska) projected throughout the 21st Century. - Sea ice projections for Russia's Northern Sea Route indicate an increasing length of the navigation season. - Possibility for regular marine surface navigation in the Central Arctic Ocean in summer by 2050. - Quantification of Arctic marine access/navigation proving challenging; testing the limitations of GCMs; recognition of the need for Arctic regional models. - Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: guide to current and future Arctic climate trends & consequences.

32. Relevant Upcoming Events CITF Experts Meeting, Cambridge (September 2004) Arctic Maritime Security Workshop, D.C. (October 2004) ACIA Symposium, Reykjavik (9-12 November 2004) International Conference –Arctic Marine Transportation, Anchorage (Spring/Summer 2005)