1. «An adaptation of Larix in Global climate changes in Arkhangelsk region». Elena Surina FGU «Northern Research Institute of Forestry»(Arkhangelsk) FGU «Northern Research Institute of Forestry» (Arkhangelsk)

2. FGU «Northern Research Institute of Forestry» (Arkhangelsk) tel: (8182) 61 79 55 fax: (8182) 61 25 78 e-mail: forestry@ptl-arh.ru, sevniilh@ptl-arh.ru www.sevniilh.ru

3.   The scientific researches of FGU "Northern Research Institute of Forestry" (FGU «NRIF») following are:   northern taiga’s and tundra’s forestry;   silviculture and forest melioration; forest using; forest cultures;   economy and the forestry management;   forest selection; forest conservation and protection; biodiversity conservation;   introduction of woody plants.

4. For territory of the Russian Federation (2008) trend of average annual temperature of air has made near by 0,4°С/10 years (source: technical resume of the estimated report on climate changes and their consequences), and rather possibly speaks increase in greenhouse gases and an aerosol in atmosphere. According to the Press centre Federal Service Rosleshoz for last 20-30 years the maximum increase of temperature in boreal a zone is marked just in the Arkhangelsk region, Karelia, Komi Republic and makes 3-4 С.

5. Forest divisions: 1 – Arkhangelskoye 2 – Bereznikovskoye 3 – Velskoye 4 –Verhnetoemskoye 5 – Vilegodskoye 6 – Emezkoye 7 – Kargopolskoye 8 – Karpogorskoye 9 – Konoshskoye 10 – Kotlasskoye 11 – Krasnoborskoye 12 – Leshukonskoye 13 – Mezenskoye 14 – Nyandomskoye 15 – Onezskoye 16 – Plesetskoye 17 – Severodvinkoye 18 – Ustyanskoye 19 – Holmogorskoye 20 – Shenkurskoye 21 – Yarenskoye 22 – Solovetskoye 23 – Vyiskoye 24 – Pinezskoye 25 – Surskoye 26 – Priozernoye 27 – Obozerskoye 28 – Puksoozerskoye

6. THE CHANGES IN STRUCTURE OF FORESTS AS A RESULT OF MANY FACTORS, WHICH ARE CAUSED BY ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCE: CUTTINGS, FOREST FIRES, POLLUTION SOILS AND THE ATMOSPHERE, ALSO RECREATIONAL LOADINGS. FORESTS IN NORTHERN TAIGA IN SPHERE OF THEIR LOW EFFICIENCY ARE VERY SENSITIVE TO INFLUENCE OF THE ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS.

7. The larch stands of Russia are the powerful carbon reservoirs. Thus, as is one of the basic components of boreal zone, larch forest stands can make an essential impact on global cycles of the basic greenhouse gases and, especially, a carbon cycle. The estimation of balance of carbon in larch ecosystems is an actual problem.

8. Aims and objectives. The aim of this proposal is to assess the impact of climate change at the regional to local scale for the territory as forests, with emphasis on using very high climate resolution in order to capture the effects of the complex ecosystems of the forests. Objectives will be achieved through the execution of the following specific tasks: To collect, assess and make available for first local impact studies the scenarios and climate simulations produced in previous relevant projects. To find the model results, compare and statistical downscaling results, analyze and develop the methods for verification, particularly at local scales.

9. To estimate the effect of global climate change on the occurrence of extreme events (heavy precipitation, droughts) in the region. To assess (based on the high resolution downscaling results) the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle and water resources over selected catchments in the region; to study the effects of climate change on the forests. To study (based on the high resolution downscaling results) the impacts of climate change on agriculture and forestry, carbon cycle and selected species.

10. 1.CARBON FLOWS OF VEGETATION GROSS PRODUCTION: growth (tress, ground vegetation)+respiration RESPIRATION: growth and maintenance respiration = NET PRODUCTION LITTEFALL = NET PRODUCTION OF VEGETATION 2. CARBON FLOWS OF LITTER FORMATION OF LITTER EMISSIONS OF DECAYING LITTER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE CHANGE TO SOM = NET PRODUCTION OF LITTER 3. CARBON FLOWS OF SOIL ORGANIC MATTER FORMATION OF SOM (change of litter to SOM) – EMISSIONS OF DECAYING SOM INTO THE ATMOSPHERE = NET PRODUCTION OF SOM 4.CARBON BALANCE OF FOREST ECOSYSTEM C FLOW INTO FOREST ECOSYSSTEM (gross production) C FLOW OUT OF FOREST ECOSYSTEM (respiration, emissions of decaying litter and SOM into the atmosphere) = NET FOREST ECOSYSTEM PRODUCTION (NEP)

11. Meteorological indicators district where can find larch stands (Karpogoskyi forestry division) Years Meteorological indicators for vegetation period Wind speed for year, m/s temperature, °С precipitations, mm sum temperatures over 10°С hydrothermal coefficient Selyaninova middlemaximum °С % from middle perennial 199515.1397.117091401.61.6316 199613.6220.714421181.11.1314 199714.2115.614641200.70.7312 199816.0348.717181401.91.9314 199914.2243.015781291.01.0314 200016.5226.818951550.70.7223 200115.2266.915831290.90.9320 200213.7228.113651120.60.6312 200316.6281.517711451.11.1313 200416.3197.717981470.90.9320 200517.8171.118121480.80.8312 Meteorological indicators for winter’s period Years temperature °Сprecipitations, % middle minimu m maximu m DecemberJanuaryFebruary snowrainfoghailsnowrainfoghailsnowrainfoghail 1995-9.8-30253.67.95.90.258.29.92.50.473.828.91.70 1996-12.6-41260.623.711.5065.210.99.5048.412.26.40 1997-16.4-41352.615.211.0054.414.61.3057.829.80.40 1998-17.1-41255.216.35.9073.615.710.50.435.08.20.40 1999-14.0-502absent53.210.314.2047.510.73.80 2000-13.4-37556.28.04.10absent 2001-14.9-41164.62.11.7059.715.19.0047.310.92.50 2002-14.2-41172.44.43.1071.813.42.1058.720.66.30 2003-13.0-43277.822.83.80.462.69.810.5047.529.10.60 2004-11.3-36274.717.21.5069.714.01.3054.219.54.00 2005-10.3-29180.36.33.1058.814.20.4036.614.22.30

12. Physiological researches define daily efficiency of photosynthesis СО 2, mg/g wet weight of foliage: a birch - 69,9, pine - 17,1, spruce - 14,2 larch - 81,5 mg/g, i.e. difference in 5 times. Birch forests and larch stands, having not enough foliage; allocate oxygen of not less spruce an equal different conditions.

13. Determine how land-use change effects atmospheric CO 2 concentrations requires new approaches to research because of the large area and the long period of time involved. Estimates of the flux of carbon to the atmosphere are based on site-specific information concerning the effects of land-use change on the carbon content of terrestrial vegetation. This spatially explicit approach combines historical and current information on land-use change for a specific area. Arkhangelsk region was chosen for the study because the region is undergoing most land-use changes and makes a significant contribution to atmospheric CO 2.

15. Carbon sequestration in larch forests of Arkhangelsk region from 2010-1900-ss 2010 1900 income=outcome

16. M anaging the transition of forest ecosystems under climate change, while meeting greenhouse gas mitigation objectives, adds further challenges to forest management. As the burdens of greenhouse gas mitigation efforts and climate change impacts increasingly affect society, it can be anticipated that future societal expectations of the role of forests are changing. D eveloping forest mitigation strategies that also address adaptation objectives requires a sound understanding of the contribution of forests and forest sector activities to the global climate system (carbon balance, albedo, hydrology) and of the impacts of climate change on future forest dynamics.

17. F orest plantations that sequester carbon (C) at a high rate may provide an opportunity for offsetting net atmospheric C emissions. Restoration is generally regarded as a process of returning an ecosystem to conditions that existed before degradation, traditionally looking to past conditions for soft or hard targets. T he prospect of global change, however, suggests that backwards is the wrong way to look and silviculturists should look forward to future climate conditions and construct resilient ecosystems. Anticipating future conditions, however, is more complex than simulating increases in temperatures and decreases in precipitation. Managers need strategic but adaptive approaches.

18. Scheme. The carbon stocks in the forest stands, in forest products, carbon stocks in soil, forest litter ( %) if virgin forests should changed forests of cultures with same characteristics

19. Thanks for attention