1. PROMISE Predictability and variability of monsoons and the agricultural and hydrological impacts of climate change A 3 year research project funded under Framework 5 of the European Union (grant number EVK2-CT-1999-00022) For more information see http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/promise

2. Talk outline Goals and structure of PROMISE Examples of PROMISE research International conference we are planning for 2003

3. World population prospects … Source: United Nations Population Division 1998  India predicted to be the most populated country by 2050

4. PROMISE Partners Bologna University of Reading CIRAD CNRM DMI ICTP CEH LMD MPI The Met Office ECMWF CRC CINECA IITM

5. Goals of PROMISE PROMISE aims to improve understanding of: The potential for seasonal prediction and the benefits that would accrue in terms of the management of water resources and agriculture The impacts of climate change on tropical countries, in particular on the availability of water resources for human use and on the productivity of crops and the potential changes in natural vegetation

6. Links with end-users Development of a data archive Visits to CGIAR centres ICTP workshop (held in 2001) International conference to be held in 2003 For more information see: http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/promise/research/endusers

7. PROMISE Research and Support Natural variability and predictability of current monsoon climates Assessment of anthropogenic climate changes for monsoon climates Impact of climate change on ground hydrology and agriculture + Establishment of active links with climate scientists in monsoon affected countries Development of a database of observed and simulated data on meteorology, hydrology and agriculture

8. Main areas of PROMISE research Sensitivity of monsoon variability to sea surface temperatures Sensitivity of monsoon variability to land-surface processes Seasonal predictability and natural variability of monsoon climates Assessment of future monsoon climates Hydrological and agricultural impacts of climate change in monsoon-affected countries Impact of land-use changes on future monsoon climates ERA-40 DEMETER ERA-40

9. Integrated climate modelling

10. Examples of PROMISE research Development of a hydrological model that can be integrated with regional climate models (GWAVA) Development of a crop model that can be integrated with seasonal forecast to produce yield estimates in Senegal (GCH4) Development of a large scale crop model that can be combined with GCMs to produce long term forecasts of yields that can be used for planning (HAPPY)

11. GWAVA Global Water AVailability Assessment Jeremy Meigh Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (Institute of Hydrology) Wallingford, UK in conjunction with British Geological Survey

12. Overall objective Develop a methodology for the assessment of water resources in relation to water demands which can be applied globally

13. GWAVA Detailed Objectives Consistent methodology at the global scale Representation of spatial variability in water availability and demands Representation of seasonal and year-to-year variability in water resources Accounting for the real properties of water resources systems Tackling problems of international basins Combined treatment of surface and groundwater Ability to take into account scenarios of population growth, urbanisation, economic development and climate change

14. General approach 0.5 by 0.5 degree grid for both water availability and demands Linking grid cells to simulate river network Models to account for effects of: lakes, reservoirs and wetlands abstractions and return flows inter-basin transfers Water demands based on current and projected population and livestock numbers, information on irrigation and industrial use Indices of water availability versus demand derived at the grid cell scale

15. Inputs and data sources Physical and water resources data  Elevation, River network  Vegetation, Soil type  Lakes, Reservoirs and Wetlands  Aquifer properties Climate  Rainfall - 30 year time series, Evaporation Demand related information  Population, Livestock numbers, Industrial and Irrigation demands

16. River network and cell linkages Indian Ocean Red Sea

17. Change in annual water demand, 2050

18. Change in water availability index 2050, taking in to account:  Supply changes due to climate change  Demand changes due to:  increasing population  population distribution  increasing per capita demands (improved living standards and industrialisation) -2.00 to -1.90 -1.75 to -1.50 -1.00 to -0.50 -0.20 to 0.20 0.50 to 1.00 1.50 to 1.75 1.90 to 2.00

19. Application of model to West Africa River networkDensity of trees Soil type

20. Examples of PROMISE research Development of a hydrological model that can be integrated with regional climate models (GWAVA) Development of a crop model that can be integrated with seasonal forecast to produce yield estimates in Senegal (GCH4) Development of a large scale crop model that can be combined with GCMs to produce long term forecasts of yields that can be used for planning (HAPPY)

21. AGRHYMET DHC_CP Diagnostic Hydrique des Cultures CIRAD Champs Pluviométriques Crop Water Balance Calculation Using Satellite based Rainfall Estimates Using Satellite based Rainfall Estimates Presented by : Abdallah SAMBA, Agrometeorologist AGRHYMET Regional Centre at Niamey, NIGER Trieste, June 2001

22. Need to forecast the yields of food crops in order to : best manage the cereal stocks control the distribution of food start food aid in time Using water balance simulation to obtain parameters which enable estimation of yields. Introduction

23. Water fluxes and their effects on agricultural hydrosystem AgriculturalproductionAgriculturalproduction Crop transpiration Soil evaporation Drainage Precipitation Capillary rise Lixiviation Ground water Runoff ErosionErosion ( )

24. Agriculturalproduction Drainage Precipitation Ground water Simplification for Water Balance simulation (The DHC4 model ) Crop transpiration Soil evaporation

25.  File  Screen  GIS  Spreadsheet  Printer METEOSATSatellite DATA BASES  PET  Historical rainfall data Stochastic Rainfall Generation Parameter Calibration n years x stations n stations AGRHYMET RESULTS Agrometeorological Agrometeorological Stations Stations WATER BALANCE SIMULATION Rainfall data CIRAD

26. Examples of PROMISE research Development of a hydrological model that can be integrated with regional climate models (GWAVA) Development of a crop model that can be integrated with seasonal forecast to produce yield estimates in Senegal (GCH4) Development of a large scale crop model that can be combined with GCMs to produce long term forecasts of yields that can be used for planning (HAPPY)

27. Combined weather/crop forecasting for groundnut in India Andy Challinor, Tim Wheeler and Julia Slingo University of Reading

28. Farm - management - decisions Genotype Crop    Weather Soil

29. GCM TimescaleTimescale Spatial scale annual + seasonal monthly daily Country + district field Crop models

30. TimescaleTimescale Spatial scale annual + seasonal monthly daily Country +district field  rainfall  groundnut  rainfall  groundnut

31. TimescaleTimescale Spatial scale annual + seasonal monthly daily Country +district field Large area model  rainfall  groundnut

32. Huge Area Potential Peanut Yield (HAPPY!!) model

33. Calibrating and testing HAPPY Calibrate using field/district data. Test in hindcast mode using ERA-40 data to drive HAPPY. Compare predicted crop yields with observed crop yields. Re-calibrate HAPPY?

34. General Circulation Model Crop model (HAPPY) spatial parameters Crop model uncertainties output processing weather forecast crop forecast Large area model Probabilistic outputs

35. International PROMISE conference Monsoon environments: Agricultural and hydrological impacts of seasonal variability and climate change 24 th – 28 th March 2003 ICTP in Trieste currently sponsored by EU PROMISE, ICTP, WCRP, START/CLIMAG

36. Monsoon environments: Agricultural and hydrological impacts of seasonal variability and climate change Conference topics The impacts of anthropogenic climate change on hydrology, agriculture and natural vegetation in monsoon-affected countries Seasonal predictability of monsoon climates and the management of water resources and agriculture Data provision for scientists from monsoon-affected countries using the PROMISE data archive as an example. Use of seasonal forecasts as an operational tool Applications of crop and hydrological model output to decision-making processes in developing countries Future of integrated climate/impacts modelling

37. Monsoon environments: Agricultural and hydrological impacts of seasonal variability and climate change Planned sessions 1.Seasonal predictability and natural variability of monsoon climates 2.Assessment of future monsoon climates in response to anthropogenic climate change 3.Sensitivity of monsoon variability to land-surface processes 4.Agricultural impacts of climate change 5.Hydrological impacts of climate change 6.Bringing together scientists and end users

38. Monsoon environments: Agricultural and hydrological impacts of seasonal variability and climate change Participants PROMISE partners Representatives from aid agencies Climate scientists from developing countries Policy makers / people involved with long term planning European and American scientists working on PROMISE-related topics

39. Summary PROMISE is an interdisciplinary project which aims to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change on monsoon environments An international conference is planned for March 2003 which we hope will involve both researchers and end- users of research FAO’s involvement in PROMISE and particularly the conference would provide an exciting opportunity for collaboration

40. Further information Find out more about PROMISE: web site: http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/promise brochure – a few copies here also download from the web site E-mail or phone me: emily@met.rdg.ac.uk +44 118 9316608 attend the next annual PROMISE meeting in mid-May in Paris