1. War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost 1 Air Armament Center Mr. Deryl Israel AAC/EN Integrated Program Assessment Status 28 February 2008 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

2. War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost 2 Outline Integrated Assessment (IA) Update  IA purpose & background  Progress since 2007 Industry Day Program Sufficiency Review (PSR) summary  FY06-07 activity & results  Lessons learned: How to do better SRs  Lessons learned: How to build better programs Way Ahead: Plans for 2008

3. War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost 3 Assessment Purpose & Background Historically, Eglin programs have  Cost overruns of 15%-30%  Schedule slips of 6-12 months Since FY06, deployed and integrated a suite of assessments to execute AAC’s vision--War- winning capabilities… on time, on cost Intent is to create and maintain a high- confidence portfolio

4. War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost 4 High-Confidence Programs Key Characteristics* * As Defined by D&SWS design teams Good “Should-Cost” Estimate Budget/Cost Estimate alignment Approved time-phased CDD requirements Program office resourcing Requirements stability Budget stability mechanism Incremental program plan Short-duration capability release/production schedules SDD phase no greater than 6 years Tech / manufacturing maturity assessment thresholds met Integrated sustainment and depot strategy Realistic test planning, Approved IOT&E plan Life-cycle acquisition strategy—time certain success incentive Executing according to “plan” Probability of Program Success (PoPS) measures

5. War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost 5 AFPEO/WP Policy, 23 May 07 AAC Integrated Assessments These assessments will help us collaborate with our government stakeholders and industry to improve our acquisition processes and align expectations. AAC acquisition commanders/directors must effectively employ the assessments during program planning and execution Assessment leaders will provide results to the PEO/Deputy PEO, Weapons; commanders or directors of appropriate AAC line units; and the AAC Center Senior Functional owning the assessment being reported.

6. War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost 6 Logistics Health Assessment (LHA) Cost Sufficiency Review (CSR) Systems Engineering Assessment (SEA) Program Sufficiency Review (PSR) Technology Readiness & Integration Assessment (TRA) Probability of Program Success (PoPS) Spiral 2 Assessment Engine INPUTS (FROM STD AAC PRODUCTS) Rollout Spring ‘08 Manufacturing Readiness Assessment (MRA) Probability of Program Success (PoPS) Logistics Health Assessment (LHA)

7. War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost 7 AAC Assessment Life Cycle CSR PSR POM InputMS AMS BMS C Sustainment PSR (As Required) MonthlyUpdated Quarterly Updated TRA’/ MRA’ PSR TRA/ MRA’ CSR SEA PoPS PSR TRA/ MRA’ CSR PoPS LHA PoPS MRA/ TRA’ (As Required) CSR (As Required) SEA MonthlyUpdated PoPS SEA LHA PSR LHA MRA/ TRA’ CSR SEA PoPS

8. War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost 8 Progress Since 2007 Industry Day Probability of Program Success (PoPS)  Consistent monthly updates in SMART  Internal audits drive process compliance Cost Sufficiency Review  Earlier collaboration between staff & programs Manufacturing Readiness Assessment  Updated guide published 30 Nov 07 Logistics Health Assessment  Increment 1 design complete; approved by AFMC/A4  Increment 2 design to include Pre MS B coverage Sufficiency Reviews  Co-chaired by AAC/EN, 308 th ARSW/CL  PoPS-based template; promotes standard work  Action item status reported at program reviews

9. War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost 9 ONDJFMAMJJAS AIR-TO-AIR PROGRAMS AIR-TO-GROUND PROGRAMS RealisticRealistic, Carries Risk FY06 AAC Sufficiency Reviews COMBAT SUPPORT PROGRAMS NEW CONCEPT PROGRAMS AAC Totals 20 (13 7 ) G / None 1 2 1 1 3 1 5 1 1 0 2 3 Canceled- major redesign req’d Contract award: FY10 Plan presented at EWSR AAC/CA Approved Prod Y / None User did not include in POM PDRR on track; JCTD starts FY08 Current MAR/Rebaselines since SR/Notes G / None User requirement withdrawn Canceled- producibility issues R / None / FY08 funding issue Concept provided to SECAF Concept provided to AFSOC Concept provided to ACC Assessment sent to AFMC/CC Concept provided to SOCOM Concept provided to AFSOC Focused Lethality Munition Wind-Correct Mun Disp-Ext Range Laser JDAM Covert Resupply (COVERS) BLU-122 Rebaseline AMRAAM FY08 POM MALD SDD Rebaseline AMRAAM Rebaseline Air Superiority Target FY08 POM MALD Universal Armament Interface Munition Assy Conveyor II MS C ALM MK82 DIME Very Small Munition Tactical Laser for Airfield Defense I-500 Penetrator Small Concept Weapon on Predator Adaptive Carriage Enterprise Close Air Support Weapons Hd Tgt Void Sens Fuze Risk Reduct

10. War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost 10 ONDJFMAMJJAS AIR-TO-AIR PROGRAMS AIR-TO-GROUND PROGRAMS Current MAR/Rebaselines since SR/Notes RealisticRealistic, Carries Risk FY07 AAC Sufficiency Reviews COMBAT SUPPORT PROGRAMS NEW CONCEPT PROGRAMS AAC Totals 22 (6 16 ) G / None 3 1 4 3 2 3 1 1 1 0 1 2 R / None – Awaiting N-M decision R User requirement withdrawn G / None Contract award: FY08 Contract award: FY10 AoA eliminated concept PDRR Contract award: FY10 G / None G G G G G Prototype effort: on track Extended User Eval JCTD User requirement withdrawn FY08 JCTD; SDD start: FY10 AMSTE-JDAM JASSM-ER Restructure JASSM Maritime Interdiction JDAM Production Laser JDAM SDB II Cost (prior to DoD CAIG rvw) SFW Production FY10 POM AST Business Jet AoA MALD-J SDD AST QF-16 Update CRIIS Rapid Prototype Joint Threat Emitter CRIIS Risk Reduction & SDD P5 Combat Training System Automated Remote Transport Sys CRIIS Test & Training Adv Tactical Laser Ext User Eval Hard Tgt Void Sensing Fuze JCTD Massive Ordnance Penetrator QRC Hard Tgt Void Sensing Fuze

11. War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost 11 AAC Portfolio Performance Program Rebaselines: 3

12. War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost 12 AAC Portfolio Performance Program Rebaselines: 2

13. War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost 13 Lessons Learned How to do better Sufficiency Reviews Do: Employ cross-functional approach when completing assessments Use proper versions of process guides/tools (e.g. PoPS spreadsheet) Conduct sufficient “deep dives” into appropriate individual assessments Address weaponeering & mission planning across entire life cycle Present efficient and effective test plans built with CTA & RTO inputs Incentivize supplier decision processes when transitioning to production Identify opportunities to validate manufacturing processes Carefully select cost/schedule benchmarks Conduct thorough Cost SRs prior to Program SRs Use PoPS results in Program SRs to identify, communicate risks Don’t: Assume all AAC programs will be low-risk efforts Over-optimistically evaluate programs View Cost and Program SRs as the IG; they are home team help

14. War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost 14 Assessments Becoming AF Tools AAC leaders assigned to AFSO21 Develop & Sustain Warfighting Systems (D&SWS) teams  Ms Stokley, AAC/CA, co-sponsored Life Cycle Management; Oversight/Command & Control teams  Ms Rutledge, 708ARSG/CL; Mr Mistretta, AAC/EN; Tech Development team  Mr Walley, 918ARSG/DD; Life Cycle Management team Assessments endorsed by AFMC/CC; SAF/AQ to create & maintain high-confidence programs  PoPS: key risk management tool & metric  TRAs/MRAs: enable “stage gating” milestones  SEA: moving toward AFMC-wide application  LHA: Sponsored by AFMC/A4  Sufficiency Reviews: req’d at key decision points  AF-level Implementation planning now underway

15. War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost 15 Building Better Programs Attaining High Confidence * Proposed by D&SWS design teams Better transition planning, decisions via technology and manufacturing assessments, PoPS, Pre-MS B risk reduction phase* Iterative requirements that evolve, provide trade space prior to MS B* Stable requirements for a given increment* Realistic resourcing ($$ and people)* Risk-based source selections* Strong, consistent Systems Engineering processes* Incremental development w/ discrete offramps* Incentivize sustainment (affordability/availability)* Proactive risk management* Early, active test community involvement in test planning Up-front weaponeering & mission planning—and resources

16. War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost 16 Way Ahead: 2008 Plans Share AAC processes/lessons learned via D&SWS  Enable running start at other centers  Facilitate PoPS training at other Centers  Personnel from other Centers attend AAC IA events Design LHA Increment 2 (supports pre-MS B efforts) Align AAC IA improvements with D&SWS  Integrate near-term AFMC; SAF/AQ decisions  Minimize scrap & rework as AF standards adopted  Continue process standardization Leverage assessments to streamline doc prep  Summarize key results in AAC Expectation Mgt Agreements  Use assessment products to streamline Life Cycle Mgt Plan creation/updates via Zero Based Documentation pilots