1. CROP MODEL I: Overview and possible applications Becky Chaplin-Kramer NatCap Olympics 4.23.2012

2. InVEST Crop Model Foley et al. 2011 What are the trade-offs in clearing land for agriculture? What is the value of ecosystem services to agriculture?

3. InVEST Crop “Model” Atypical ecosystem service – heavily managed – market already exists – decades of globally available data! Atypical approach (for InVEST) Crop Yield Intermediate Inputs Crop Value

4. Crop Yield Model Estimated (observed or average) yields Modeled yields – Intensified yields (75% attainable) – Unintensified yields (25% attainable) Foley et al. 2011 Crop Yield Intermediate Inputs Crop Value

5. Intermediate Inputs Mapping N, P, K and irrigation rates as: – inputs to Crop Value model (input costs) – possible inputs to other InVEST models (nutrient retention, water yield) Crop Yield Intermediate Inputs Crop Value

6. Crop Value Model Returns = Revenue – Costs –Revenue = Price x Yield* x Area –Costs: Crop Yield Intermediate Inputs Crop Value

7. Crop Yield Model, in detail Start with user- generated crop map Get estimated and modeled (% attainable) yields Forest Grassland Maize Soy Wheat Maize Riparian InVEST data includes: – observed yield maps for 175 crops – climate bin maps for 175 crops – income bin map (World Bank/OECD designation) – climate/income bin average yield table – attainable yield table (Foley et al. model)

8. Crop Yield Model: Mapping Estimated Yields first try looking at observed yield maps if no data, take average for that climate/income binHIyieldMIyieldLIyield 1 8.2 6.1 3.4 2 7.6 4.9 2.7 …

9. Crop Yield Model: Mapping Modeled Yields Foley et al. (2011): attainable yield = 95 th percentile yield within each climate bin “Unintensified” yields“Intensified” yields

10. Crop Yield Model Next Steps: Downscaling Higher resolution climate data to assign bins on the fly, capture local climate heterogeneity SSURGO Data validation project with local yield datasets, regress other parameters

11. Crop Model Applications: Unilever Contract How will changes in corporate crop consumption affect land-use, ecosystem services? Library of Congress

12. Crop Model Applications: Mapping Nutrition Nutrient = ∑(Yield c - Refuse c ) x Area c x Nutrient c Next step: Nutrition = Nutrient x RDA x Population density Still need: animal products, bioavailability How much of required nutrition is produced locally? Vitamin C

13. Which areas are most vulnerable, what aspects make them vulnerable, and how to address? Poverty, access to markets? Climate change, variability? Pollination dependence? Closing yield gaps, crop-switching, diversification? Crop Model Applications: Mapping Nutrition Vulnerability