1. The main need of our officers is a knowledge of the fundamental principles of tactics and how to apply them. This knowledge is to be gained not by studying rules, formulas, or ‘normal schemes’ but by practice in solving problems. Such practice, combined with knowledge of human nature and common sense, is what makes a tactician. MG John F. Morrison former Instructor and Acting Commandant, USACGSC 1883-85, 1906-12 Problem Solving

2. Purpose To review the Army’s problem- solving process in an effort to improve a leader’s ability to make effective, timely decisions.

3. References FM 5-0, Army Planning and Orders Production, OCT 04 Techniques of Structured Problem Solving, Arthur B. VanGundy, 1981, VanNostrandReinhold Company Inc. Victims ofGroupthink, Irving L. Janis, 1972, Houghton Mifflin Company Boston, p 9 52d ID & Ft. Riley Memo 25-50, 52d ID (M) Staff Officers Guide, Feb 02 Appendix 1, Lesson 1 “The Theory of Problem Solving,” Feb 99

4. Outline Introduction. Step 1, "Recognize and Define Problem." Step 2, "Gathering Information.” Step 3, “List Solutions.” Step 4, "Testing Solutions.” Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and Implementing Best Solution." AAR/Summary. Conclusion.

5. Problem-Solving in Practice Identify problem List facts and assumptions Develop possible solutions Research and collect data Interpret data Evaluate solutions Statement of problem Body facts that influence assumptions to fill gaps Courses of action Analysis Comparison Recommendation The Decision Briefing Prepare Study The Staff StudyMDMP Make/receive decision

6. Process 1. Recognize & define the problem 2. Gather information relative to the problem 3. List possible solutions 4. Test possible solutions 5. Select the best solution 6. Implement the solution Problem Solving Methods What do they have in common? Continuous refinement of problem, data and solutions throughout process

7. Recognize and Define the Problem Step 1, "Recognize and Define Problem." – Symptoms vs. problems – Problem statement Step 2, "Gathering Information.” Step 3, “List Solutions." Step 4, "Testing Solutions." Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and Implementing Best Solution."

8. A Problem is... The difference between –What is happening and –What you want to happen Defined as –Well structured –Ill structured –Medium structured Most staff officers find themselves dealing with medium structured problems

9. Recognize and Define the Problem Defines the scope –What is our endstate/goal? Stated as a question or infinitive: –“To determine...” or, –“How to...” Includes who, what, when, where and why (as necessary) Find the root cause

10. Gathering Information Step 1, "Recognize and Define Problem." Step 2, "Gathering Information.” – Facts – Assumptions – Gross Estimation – Information Sharing – Criteria Development – Determine Criteria PE Step 3, “List Solutions." Step 4, "Testing Solutions." Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and Implementing Best Solution."

11. Gather Information - Facts –Known data –Verifiable information –Observed events, past or present –Relate to all potential solutions (Address raw data separately) –Bear on the problem

12. 25 Gather Information - Assumptions –Valid Likely to be true Based on facts –Necessary Essential for planning Provide a bridge between the facts and what you need to determine the best solution –Stated in future or conditional tense (will or might) –Must bear on the problem (you won’t make them until you need them) –Must apply to all potential solutions

13. The Household Motor Pool - FactsAssumptions Don’t want to drive a foreign car Have two kids Would like ability to transport family plus parents occasionally Would like to use vehicle for ski trips Have a boat that weighs 4,500 pounds Bank has ~$16k in the rainy-day fund Trade-in value of vehicle is roughly $8k Budget will allow $500/month for 36 months Current interest rates are 8-10% Is only interested in US vehicles Must have four seats; would prefer six or more seats Look at truck or SUV Will have approximately $24k for down payment Total price should not exceed $40k Monetary information and rates will remain constant

14. Gross Estimation Use it to: Check for errors Explore/narrow options Facilitate Group Planning Use continuously, throughout your problem solving Scope your problem down

15. Estimation Technique Make a mental plan Logical steps No calculations Do calculations Round numbers Check for errors Sound reasonable? Did you consider everything? 1 2 3

16. –What is my mission/endstate? –Guidance Who gave me the guidance (Cdr, staff, report)? –Is it first hand or filtered? –Be sure to attribute the information for later discussion. Does it constrain me? –Can I complete the mission (suitable)? –Do I have sufficient resources (feasible)? –Is the outcome worth the risks (acceptable)? Is it a preference or a requirement? Criteria Development Criteria - a standard on which a judgment or decision may be based

17. Define your solution’s limits –Screening Criteria Must be met Always Go/No Go Required absolutes Determine which solution is best –Evaluation Criteria Compare possible solutions “Like to have” vs “must have” Linking to Facts and Assumptions results in objective analysis Criteria Development (cont’d)

18. Screening Criteria What will eliminate (screen) possible solutions? Supported by facts (and/or assumptions) Screening criteria consist of... –Short, descriptive title –Definition, including “must” or “must not” Is it Suitable? Is it Feasible?Is it Acceptable? Is it Complete? Is it Distinguishable?

19. Short, descriptive Title Definition: based on facts/assumptions; describes how you’re evaluating your options Unit of measure: usually dollars, miles, etc.; what is your raw data? Benchmark: based on facts/assumptions; point at which the options are advantageous or disadvantageous Formula: defines how you use your benchmark; if option is< or> BM, it is advantaged or disadvantaged (must be one or the other) Elements of Evaluation Criteria

20. List Solutions Step 1, "Recognize and Define Problem." Step 2, "Gathering Information.” Step 3, “List Solutions." – Develop/Display Raw Data Step 4, "Testing Solutions." Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and Implementing Best Solution."

21. List Possible Solutions Have the facts/assumptions created any potential solutions? Do I need to further scope/narrow the potential solutions? Do I need assistance to determine additional potential solutions? Assemble Raw Data based on screening And evaluation criteria

22. The Household Motor Pool Raw Data VehicleOriginCostWarranty Fuel Econy Towing CapSeats TahoeUS363/361766006 ExpeditionUS413/361668007 ExplorerUS353/362048604 SuburbanUS413/361775009 CadillacUS524/501582008 Land Cru.Foreign523/361665008 DurangoUS363/361745006 OutbackForeign323/362720005 HummerUS1043/36?50004

23. Test Solutions Step 1, "Recognize and Define Problem." Step 2, "Gathering Information.” Step 3, “List Solutions." Step 4, "Testing Solutions." – Use of Screening Criteria – Use of Evaluation Criteria – Analysis of COAs Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and Implementing Best Solution."

24. Test Possible Solutions- Screening Criteria Facts Don’t want to drive a foreign car Bank has ~$16k in the rainy-day fund Trade-in value of vehicle is roughly $8k Budget will allow $500/month for 36 months Current interest rates are 8-10% Assumptions Is only interested in US vehicles Will have approximately $24k for down payment Total price should not exceed $40k Monetary information and rates will remain constant Origin: Must be made in USA. Cost: Price must not exceed $40k. Screening Criteria

25. The Household Motor Pool Raw Data VehicleOriginCostWarranty Fuel Econy Towing CapSeats TahoeUS363/361766006 ExpeditionUS413/361668007 ExplorerUS353/362048604 SuburbanUS413/361775009 CadillacUS524/501582008 Land Cru.Foreign523/361665008 DurangoUS363/361745006 OutbackForeign323/362720005 HummerUS1043/36?50004 COST: Must not exceed $40K ORIGIN: Must be made in the US

26. Test Possible Solutions - Evaluation Criteria Short Title: Cost Definition: The total cost of the vehicle Unit of Measure: Dollars Benchmark: $35,700 (average) Formula:< $35,700 is an advantage; > $35,700 is a disadvantage; less is better

27. Test Possible Solutions- Analysis Look at each of yourCOAsin terms of advantages/disadvantages List both the raw data and the benchmarks Show analysis in terms of<or> Show all evaluation criteria, not just “most important” Show thedecision-maker ALLadvantages and disadvantages

28. Test Possible Solutions- Analysis of Tahoe Advantages –Towing--6,600lbs(>5,300lbs) –Seating--6(>6 seats) Disadvantages –Cost--$36k(<$35.7k) –FuelEff.--17(>18 MPG)

29. Select and Implement The Best Solution Step 1, "Recognize and Define Problem." Step 2, "Gathering Information.” Step 3, “List Solutions." Step 4, "Testing Solutions." Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and Implementing Best Solution." – Comparison – Crosswalk Criteria to Facts/Assumptions – Eliminate Unnecessary Information

30. Select the Best Solution Comparison Compare each course of action against the other Reorder (as necessary) evaluation criteria from most to least important Reorder (as necessary) potential solutions from best to worst Highlight the recommended solution and its raw data so it stands out as best

31. Select the Best Solution Comparison of COAs > means better than Evaluation Criteria (Adv. Formula) Cost (<$35.7k) Fuel Economy (>18 MPG) Towing Capacity (>5,300lbs) Explorer ($35k) Explorer (20 MPG) Tahoe (17 MPG) Tahoe ($36k) Explorer (4,860lbs) Tahoe (6,600lbs) Durango ($36k) Durango (17 MPG) Durango (4,400lbs) >= >= > > Seats (>6 seats) Explorer (4 seats) Tahoe (6 seats) Durango (5 seats) > > Courses of Action (Raw Data)

32. The Decision Matrix

33. Implement the Solution Crosswalk Criteria Did you use all your facts? Facts Assumptions Criteria Did you make some assumptions you didn’t communicate? Can you link all your criteria back to your facts?

34. Implement the Solution Eliminate Unnecessary Information “Vehicle doesn’t meet emissions standards” Facts: >4 seats Seats (more is better) <$40k Cost (less is better) >4500 lbs towing Capacity (more is better) Fuel Economy (more is better) Criteria: Screening Evaluation Assumptions: “Would like a new vehicle” “Would like a year-end model” Discussion: “Would like four/all-wheel drive” “Would like to use vehicle for ski trips” “Narrowed scope to new vehicles” “Narrowed scope to four/ all wheel drive vehicles”

35. Summary (1 of 2) Recognize & define the problem –Do you understand the scope? Nature and complexity Time involved Experience (group vs. individual) Gather information relative to the problem –Gather facts (attributable, verifiable) –M ake assumptions (what can I verify in time?) List possible solutions –Brainstorm –Consider at least two –Feasible, suitable, acceptable, distinguishable, complete

36. Test possible solutions –Screening (absolute standards you must meet) –E valuation criteria (preferences/desired qualities based on facts/assumptions ) Select the best solution –Analysis (what are the advantages/disadvantages of the solutions?) –Comparison (how do they stand up against other solutions?) –What does your “gut” say about the solution? Implement the solution-make or recommend a decision –Final check for errors –Eliminate unnecessary info before presentation Summary (2 of 2)

37. “Poor execution can render the most brilliant concept null and void, but the most magnificent execution can rarely offset the deadweight of a flawed concept.” GEN W.E.Depuy, USA, Retired Conclusion