1. Equilibrium Assumptions and Efficiency Agreements: Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Policies for UK Road Transport, 2000-2010 Jonathan Rubin, University of Maine Terry Barker, University of Cambridge Comparing North American and European Approaches to Climate Change Viessmann European Research Centre, Wilfrid Laurier University, Canada September 28, 2007

2. Outline Results Intro: macroeconomic models of energy efficiency improvements –CGE v. Sectoral models –Integration of top-down, bottom-up modelling Modelling the macroeconomic rebound effect using MDM-E3 Application to transport sector Findings and conclusions

3. Results Voluntary efficiency agreement –Positive macroeconomic impacts GDP, employment, inflation –Reductions in energy demand & CO 2 Equivalent fuel taxes (in terms of CO 2 ) –Without revenue recycling Lower GDP & employment –With revenue recycling that reduces income taxes Eliminates negative macroeconomic impacts Equity/distributional issues remain Inflation neutral scenario, VA & fuel duties

4. UK Energy Efficiency Policies Significant part of 2000 UK Climate Change Programme and 2003 Energy White Paper –review of UK CCP launched in Sept 04 - reported March 2006 Updated DTI projections for CO 2 emissions (including CCL, 9% renewables, excluding EU ETS): 1990161 MtC Projection for 2010144 - 145 MtC (10% reduction) Target for 2010129 MtC (20% reduction) ‘Carbon gap’15 – 16 MtC

5. Effect of Climate Change Programme Measures Source: DTI, UK energy and CO 2 emissions projections, Feb 2006

6. Energy Efficiency Policies Included in Projections Target sectorPolicy/measureCO 2 savings in 2010 (MtC) DomesticBuilding Regulations1.3 Energy Efficiency Commitment1.4 Warm Front0.4 Appliance Standards and Labelling0.2 BusinessUK ETS0.3 CCL package1.1 CCAs2.9 Building Regulations0.5 Public SectorPublic Sector measures0.3 TransportVA Package2.3 10 Year Transport Plan0.8 Total11.5

7. Global GHG mitigation in context: energy in world GDP 1970 2000 2100 Source: E3MG2.0

8. Global GHG mitigation in context: energy in world GDP 1970 2000 2100 Source: E3MG2.0 energy industries represent <4% GDP

9. Global GHG mitigation in context: energy in world GDP 1970 2000 2100 Source: E3MG2.0 energy industries represent <4% GDP future energy use is about growth & investment

10. Macroeconomic Modeling of Energy CGE models –treatment of energy as factor of production in a production function with labor and capital Econometric models –traditional approach with energy demand equations –Literature on income and price elasticities

11. Macroeconomic Costs of Mitigation Costs not directly observable from market prices –outcome of complex energy-environment-economy (E3) system –involve changes in environment that have no market valuations –hypothetical: comparison of 2 states of the E3 system over future years Macroeconomic costs usually measured in terms of future loss of GDP, comparing one hypothetical state of the world with another Debate: are such costs to be offset by ancillary benefits and benefits from use of tax or emission permit revenues? –taxes/auctioned permits may incur high “political” costs –free allocation of emission permits (as in phase I EU emissions trading scheme (ETS)) yields no revenues to recycle

12. Treatment of Technological Change in Cost Modelling Usual assumption in IPCC literature is of autonomous growth in energy efficiency, constant across all economies: therefore no effect on efficiency from stabilisation policies However there is good evidence that –higher real prices of energy increase efficiencies (e.g. Popp, 2002; Jaffe, Newell and Stavins, 2003) –costs of renewable power fall as markets develop (e.g. McDonald and Schrattenholzer, 2001) New research: –modelling of endogenous technological change (bottom-up and top-down) and implications for policy action –low-carbon paths as low-cost, even beneficial, global options

13. Induced Technological Change in Global Climate Models Method: introduce R&D and/or learning-by-doing into costs of energy technologies, so that higher real carbon prices induce change CGE models face special problems –whole-economy increasing returns are incompatible with a general solution –increased substitution possibilities (e.g. to renewable power or carbon-capture) are typically introduced in the only one sector (energy) –economic growth remains largely given by assumption, with general technological change unaffected by the energy sector technologies An open question: can increased technological change lead to higher economic growth?

14. Question: Full Employment of Labor and “Efficient” Economy? Economy-wide studies that assume full efficiency report that the regulatory policies incur costs –Parry and Williams (1999) - CGE compare 8 policy instruments to reduce CO2 Find: High costs of the energy efficiency regulations, exacerbated by tax interaction effects –Smulders and Nooij (2003) - CGE analyse energy conservation on technology and economic growth Find: Policies that reduce the level of energy use unambiguously depress output levels –Pizer et al. (2006) - CGE calibrated to sectoral models of the US Find: CAFE standards to be significantly more expensive than broad carbon taxes.

15. Alternative Approach A main alternative approach: detailed sectoral studies that feed into a CGE macroeconomic model –Roland-Holst (2006) uses a CGE model for California to assess energy efficiency policies for CO 2 reductions Find: CO 2 -efficiency policies can reduce transportation CO 2 emissions by nearly 6% and increase Gross State Output by over 2%

16. The Approach of MDM-E3 (Multisectoral Dynamic Model – w/ Energy- Environment-Economy system) MDM is a multisectoral regional econometric model of the UK economy developed in the 1990s Equilibrium & constant returns to scale are not assumed The solutions are dynamic, integrated and consistent across the model and submodels Energy demand is derived from demand for heat & power from demand for final products –No explicit production function –2-level hierarchy: aggregate energy demand equations and fuel share equations –Aggregate demand affected by industrial output of user industry, household spending in total, relative prices, temperature, technical progress indicator, trends, efficiency policies

17. MDM-E3 Theory and Data Econometric, dynamic, structural, post-Keynesian –based on time series and cross-section data –cointegration techniques identify long-run trends in 22 sets of equations –Structural: 50 industries, 13 energy users, 11 energy carriers, 51 HH categories Assumptions –Social groups (not representative agents) i.e. parameters vary across sectors and regions –Variable returns to scale and degrees of competition across sectors –Path dependency and emphasis on “history” rather than “equilibrium” –Short-term and long-run solutions With induced technological change –Technological Progress Indicators (TPI) (incl. R&D) in many equations e.g. in energy-use, export, import, price, employment equations

18. Energy Submodel 1Power Generation 2Other Transformation 3Energy industries own use 4Iron and Steel 5Mineral Products 6Chemicals 7Other Industry 8Rail Transport 9Road Transport 10Water Transport 11Air Transport 12 13 Domestic Use (Households) Other Final Demand (including commerce, government, agriculture and construction) Energy-Intensive Industries Energy Users

19. MDM-E3 & Transport Top-down macroeconomic model Bottom-up transport system efficiency feedback to macro economy –Efficiency improvements estimated offline Feedback from macro economy not incorporated in detailed transport sector

20. bottom-up driver: supplies of solar & human energy and of technologies Human energy (walking, cycling) top-down driver: demand for energy Other industry equipment Energy intensive industry CHP Transport vehicles Commercial buildings Energy demand Household appliances & dwellings Micro CHP Electricity Other energy supply CHP UK & imported oil & gas UK & imported coal Energy from waste, landfill mines Wind, wave, tidal energy Solar energy demand for gas & electricity low carbon process coal, gas & electricity demand for gasoline fuel cells Micro CHP demand for gas & electricity Solar energy trade investment & trade investment in new technologies investment & regulation prices & availability demand for coal & gas demand for electricity The UK Energy System in MDM-E3 onboard CHP

21. MDM-E3 : Aggregate Energy- Demand Equations Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model –energy consumption (Et) depends on –energy price (Pt), output (Yt), temperature (TEt) & lagged values: Et=a0+a1Pt+ a2Yt + a3TEt + a4Et-1 + a5Yt-1 + a6Pt-1 + a7TEt-1+εt Re-parameterisation give error-correction mechanism (ECM) model: ΔEt=b0+b1Δ Pt+ b2ΔYt + b3ΔTEt + b4(Et-1 – b5Pt-1 – b6Yt-1- b7TEt-1) + εt Augmented by time trends and/or accumulated investment to represent energy efficiency improvements ECM model distinguishes between long-term and adjustment parameters

22. UK Transport Efficiency Policies Voluntary Agreements on vehicle CO 2 emissions reductions –European Commission and the European, Japanese and Korean Automobile Manufacturers Association to reduce average CO2 emissions from their new cars to 140 g/km by 2008 -2009 –Targets are expected to be met via fuel saving technologies Company Car Tax –Company cars are taxed on a percentage of their list price according to one of 21 CO2 emissions bands. Graduated Vehicle Excise Duty –GVED - the annual vehicle tax charge – new cars placed in one of four VED rate bands according to their CO2 emissions Projected to reduce transport energy use by 3.1 mtoe and lower GHG’s by 2.3 MtC

23. Aside: Canadian Voluntary MOU Commits the Canadian automotive industry to 5.3Mt reduction in GHG emissions (CO2e) from the light duty vehicle sector by 2010 Reference case GHGs for the light duty vehicle sector in 2010 are 90.51 Mt of CO2e.

24. Rebound Effects Direct, indirect, economy-wide Three direct rebound effects –More mileage driven –More comfort taking (air-conditioning) –Shift to larger vehicles –These offset 25% of the estimated gross energy savings from the policies Indirect and economy-wide (result of model) –Indirect and economy-wide rebound 7% beyond direct Total: 32%

25. Impacts of VAs on Key Macroeconomic Variables Sector200020052010 Final Energy Demand (mtoe, level) -0.29-1.86-2.89 Final Energy Demand (% level) -0.18-1.20-1.81 CO 2 Emissions (mtC, level) -0.26-1.61-2.42 CO 2 Emissions (%, level) -0.17-1.11-1.80 GDP (%, level) 0.050.430.48 GDP Deflator (%, level) -0.05-0.77-1.28 Employment (%, level) 0.000.190.28 Public Sector Borrowing (%GDP, level) 0.000.150.22

26. Efficiency v. Fiscal Policies to Reduce Transport CO 2 Emissions ImpactVAs Additional fuel duties (%/ year 2000-10) 0 Change in standard rate of Income Tax (%) 0 Final Energy Demand (%) -1.81 CO 2 Emissions (%) -1.80 GDP (%) 0.48 GDP Deflator (%) -1.28 Employment (%) 0.28

27. Efficiency v. Fiscal Policies to Reduce Transport CO 2 Emissions ImpactVAsFuel Duties Additional fuel duties (%/ year 2000-10) 04.85 Change in standard rate of Income Tax (%) 00 Final Energy Demand (%) -1.81-2.25 CO 2 Emissions (%) -1.80-1.81 GDP (%) 0.48-0.84 GDP Deflator (%) -1.283.16 Employment (%) 0.28-0.52

28. Efficiency v. Fiscal Policies to Reduce Transport CO 2 Emissions ImpactVAsFuel DutiesFuel Duties Revenue Recycling Additional fuel duties (%/ year 2000-10) 04.853.850 Change in standard rate of Income Tax (%) 00-3.540 Final Energy Demand (%) -1.81-2.25-1.86 CO 2 Emissions (%) -1.80-1.81-1.82 GDP (%) 0.48-0.84-0.43 GDP Deflator (%) -1.283.16-1.29 Employment (%) 0.28-0.520.00

29. Efficiency v. Fiscal Policies to Reduce Transport CO 2 Emissions ImpactVAsFuel DutiesInflation-neutral: VAs & Fuel Duties Additional fuel duties (%/ year 2000-10) 04.852.025 Change in standard rate of Income Tax (%) 000 Final Energy Demand (%) -1.81-2.25-2.37 CO 2 Emissions (%) -1.80-1.81-2.42 GDP (%) 0.48-0.840.24 GDP Deflator (%) -1.283.160.00 Employment (%) 0.28-0.520.04

30. Impacts of VA’s: Sensitivity Analysis (2010) SectorBaseHigher Oil & Gas Higher EU ETS Final Energy Demand (% level) -0.181-1.92-1.88 CO 2 Emissions (%, level) -0.180-1.94-1.97 GDP (%, level) 0.480.460.48 GDP Deflator (%, level) -1.28-1.35-1.31 Employment (%, level) 0.28 Public Sector Borrowing (%GDP, level) 0.220.230.22

31. Discussion & Summary VAs 1.8% CO 2 Reduction VAs v. fuel duties –Achieving the same CO2 reduction, no recycling of revenues, no monetary responses –Energy use in the transport sector goes down more with fuel duties than with the VAs, but at a cost of loss in GDP of 0.84% instead of a gain of 0.48%. –Rate of duty on road fuels has to rise by 4.85% a year (real) –Effects on inflation and growth is very marked Fuel duties increasing prices Employment is reduced by 0.5% VA’s & smaller fuel duties for inflation-neutrality –More effective in reducing energy and emissions

32. Discussion & Summary Our approach enables a partial integration of top-down macroeconomic aspects and bottom-up energy systems –We do not assume that resources are used at full economic efficiency Limitations –Bottom-up energy savings and direct rebound effects had to be imposed on the model –These are below the level of disaggregation currently in the model –No feedbacks incorporated from the wider macroeconomic effects to the bottom-up energy savings Currently working to develop greater sectoral detail for better integration with the macro model