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March 5, 2008 Economic Outlook CCIM
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Wachovia Economics Group 2 Economic Growth While Risks to the Economic Expansion Have Increased Considerably, We Continue To Believe We Will Avoid A Recession Growth will be slower during the first half of the year but Real GDP should remain positive Wachovia
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Wachovia Economics Group 3 Employment Growth Preliminary Figures Show Job Growth Fell Slightly In January. Declines Would be Much Larger In An Actual Recession Employment growth has weakened but is nowhere near recession levels Wachovia
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Wachovia Economics Group 4 Labor Markets The Unemployment Rate Has Risen But Remains Relatively Low. Past Gains Of This Magnitude Have Coincided With Recessions Or Sharp Slowdowns The unemployment rate remains slightly below “full employment” Wachovia
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Wachovia Economics Group 5 Consumer Spending Consumer Spending Is Primarily Driven By Income Growth, Which Remains Solidly Positive. However, The Housing Slump Will Slow Spending Growth Concerns about the wealth effect are overblown Wachovia
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Wachovia Economics Group 6 ISM Manufacturing Manufacturing activity is consistent with a slowdown not a recession Wachovia
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Wachovia Economics Group 7 Housing The Bulk Of The Declines In Homebuilding Are Behind Us Permits in many of the most challenged markets are approaching zero Wachovia
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Wachovia Economics Group 8 Housing We Overbuilt Homes for Five Straight Years & We Will Need to Under-Build For A Few Years Before the Excess Inventory is Corrected Housing will not meaningfully rebound before the end of the decade Wachovia
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Wachovia Economics Group 9 OFHEO Home Price Index Over Sixty Percent of the U.S. Population Live in Cities With Positive Home Price Growth OFHEO Source: OFHEO and Wachovia Corp. Wachovia
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Wachovia Economics Group 10 Non-Owner Occupied Purchase Loans: 2006 Investors Were Responsible For More than Half of the Purchases in Some Markets in 2006 Investor & Second-Home Mortgages Source: HMDA and Wachovia Corp. Wachovia
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Wachovia Economics Group 11 Office Vacancies The office market is essentially in equilibrium Wachovia
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Wachovia Economics Group 12 Industrial Vacancies Industrial markets are stronger than the vacancy data suggest Wachovia
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Wachovia Economics Group 13 Greensboro Unemployment remains near the national average Wachovia
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Wachovia Economics Group 14 Greensboro Home price growth remains steady Wachovia
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Wachovia Economics Group 15 Greensboro Population growth has been a great strength of many North Carolina cities Wachovia
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Wachovia Economics Group 16 Appendix
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Wachovia Economics Group 17 Monthly Outlook Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary Special Reports Economic Indicators Global Commentary Regional Commentary Chief Economist List To join any of our research distribution lists please email us: wachovia.economics@wachovia.com wachovia.economics@wachovia.com Distribution ListsRecent Special Commentary A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary Economics Group Publications Appendix
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Wachovia Economics Group 18 U.S. Macro Economy Comprehensive Coverage of the U.S. Economy Monthly Economic Forecast Weekly Analysis & Outlook Timely Commentary on Daily Economic Data Releases Global Economies Macro Level Coverage of Major Foreign Economies Macro Forecasts of 11 Economies Monthly Forecasts of 19 Dollar Exchange Rates Weekly Analysis & Outlook U.S. Regional Economics Regional and MSA Level Expertise Extensive Coverage Across the Wachovia Footprint Ground level Analysis & Commentary of Local Markets Industry Coverage Across CIB Industry Groups Regular Commentary on Economic Developments by Industries Economics Group Coverage Real Estate Industrial Growth Consume r & Retail Energy & Power Financial Services MediaHealthcare Tech Economics Group Appendix
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Wachovia Economics Group 19 John E. Silvia, Ph.D. Chief Economist 704.374. 7034 john.silvia@wachovia.com john.silvia@wachovia.com U.S. Macro Economy Interest Rates Monetary Policy 704.383.5635 mark.vitner@wachovia.com mark.vitner@wachovia.com U.S. Macro Economy Real Estate Regional Economics: State & MSA Level 704.383.3518 jay.bryson@wachovia.com jay.bryson@wachovia.com Global Economies Foreign Exchange Mark Vitner Senior Economist Jay H. Bryson, Ph.D. Global Economist Sam Bullard Economist 704.383.7372 sam.bullard@wachovia.com sam.bullard@wachovia.com Desk Operations Financial Services 704.715.7415 huiwen.lai@wachovia.com huiwen.lai@wachovia.com Quantitative Macro-Economic Modeling 704.715.0575 anika.khan@wachovia.com anika.khan@wachovia.com U.S. Macro Economy Consumer & Retail Non-residential Real Estate Huiwen Lai, Ph.D. Quantitative Analyst Anika Khan Economist Azhar Iqbal Quantitative Analyst 704.383.6805 azhar.iqbal@wachovia.com azhar.iqbal@wachovia.com Quantitative Macro-Economic Modeling 704.715.9660 adam.york@wachovia.com adam.york@wachovia.com U.S. Macro Economy Real Estate Industrial Growth & Services 704.383.9613 tim.quinlan@wachovia.com tim.quinlan@wachovia.com U.S. Macro Economy Adam G. York Economic Analyst Tim Quinlan Economic Analyst Wachovia Corporation Economics Group publications are distributed by Wachovia Corporation directly and through subsidiaries including, but not limited to, Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC, Wachovia Securities, LLC and Wachovia Securities International Limited. The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wachovia does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wachovia assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or as personalized investment advice. © 2008 Wachovia Corp. Economics Group Appendix
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