1. Lecture 4 April 12, 2012 Project Research - to begin the discussion

2. Research Process 1.Decide on project/team 2.Allocation of Responsibility 3.Create hypotheses 4.Secondary Research 5.Primary Research 6.Analysis 7.Write-up

3. For Innovation Projects Consider Product Development Process Phase 1 Market Needs Technology Availability People skills Can it be made? Decision to go to next step Phase 2 Team formation Systems design Systems Partition Decision to go to the next step Phase 3 Detailed design Software Hardware Phase 4 Systems integration and test Phase 5 transfer to manufacturing and support Phase 6

4. Some Hypotheses Subjects Initial Examples –Eng Development is well focused on primary product Clear answers Right number of projects –Projects are well-thought though in terms of Business Environment (no tunnel vision) –There is a well-understood process for introducing new products –There is a phase gate process –Company has competitive advantage in the technology they are pursuing –Work is scheduled so that engineers have time to finish product/project (tight but realistic) History of accomplishment –Marketing and manufacturing tied into Development process –Whole organization understands the company mission After Hearing CEO Consider modification

5. Secondary Research Where to find it? –Google, Internet –Patent search – find alternatives, competitors –Scientific Publications search –Current Events related to technology Economist, newspapers –Research key components separately –Stock market/financial stmt analysis –Industry journals –Use Caltech Research librarian –Check out imitators – tag-along industries –Company news release –Consultant reports – ask Library for help, reimbursement available

6. Primary research Customers Alumni contacts Industry analyst Company itself – start with CEO –CFO, Marketing, R&D -> (Manager and Engineer), HR- entry point should Company’s competitors

7. Interviewing techniques How many people? At least 2 Try to have same team going to each one How fast should you recap? Right away Break up roles: –Recorder, also can record it –Person asking questions –Observer – note body-language, come up with addtl questions Go in with a script – questions want to answer –Update based on results before next one Inform them also what you want to ask about Work around their schedule Telephone interview – or video conference also option Freeconference.com 605-475-4333 access 482708 Ask them who else you should speak to Follow up with thank-you e-mail, that evening

8. Choice A Technology Analysis S-curve analysis Delphi (consulting “wise people”) experienced veterans successful caltech startups investors consultants government journalists and blogists people being displaced analogous situation professors Trend extrapolation Scenario development Reasoning from analogy (the experience of similar technology innovations in similar markets) comparing with technology development models and norms. Your own techniques

9. S curve analyses Where are you on the curve –Number of competitors (growing, shrinking, static) –Rate of increase in technology capability –Rate of increase in sales/number of customers –Number of Publications –Market growth –History of predictions in this space Five years off Key markets

10. T Trend Extrapolation Whatever ?

11. Delphi Choice of “experts” who are they? –Industry analyst, Professor, Blogger, Senior Scientist Distribution Writings Interviews Triangulation/ Correlation Voice in the wilderness Listen to Assumptions Groupthink- your own judgment