1. © OECD/IEA, 2009 ESDS International Energy Conference Real Data – Real World London, 30 November 2009 Real Energy World – Real Energy Data Yes, but don’t forget… Real Challenges to Energy Statisticians Sharon Burghgraeve Jean-Yves Garnier Energy Statistics Division International Energy Agency

2. © OECD/IEA, 2009 Real Energy World Energy is “a” (if not “the”) key element of global economy Energy markets are becoming more and more global CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion represent the largest share of greenhouse gases (GHG)

3. © OECD/IEA, 2009 Energy is “a” (if not “the”) key element of global economy Example of oil: Daily production November oil price Days per year 85 Mbl/day 6 800 million US$/day 2 500 billion US$ 1.4 x GDP of UK 80 $/blx 365x

4. + 46% + 171% x 2 Underlying factors: 1.Overall IEA GDP “only” increased by 140% compared to 270% for non-IEA. As a consequence, the share of IEA in global GDP dropped from 81% to 74%, and from 63% to 51% in GDP PPP 2.Total IEA population increased by 220 million compared to 2 400 million for non-IEA 3. Average IEA energy intensity (consumption/GDP) is the lowest of the above countries/regions Energy consumption Energy markets are becoming more and more global 59% 44% More energy is now consumed outside the IEA than in IEA member countries

5. © OECD/IEA, 2009 CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion represent the largest share of greenhouse gases (GHG) WorldAnnex I countries Energy-related CO 2 contribution to GHG emissions

6. © OECD/IEA, 2009 Latin America (22 countries) Latin America (22 countries) Africa (26 countries) Africa (26 countries) Middle East (13 countries) Middle East (13 countries) Former Soviet Union (15 countries) Former Soviet Union (15 countries) OECD (30 countries) OECD (30 countries) Non OECD Europe (11 countries) Non OECD Europe (11 countries) Asia (17 countries) Asia (17 countries) A coverage of over 130 countries, 95 flows and 75 energy products A coverage of over 130 countries, 95 flows and 75 energy products Real Energy Data The contribution of the IEA to provide a global energy data coverage

7. © OECD/IEA, 2009 Books CDs Internet The contribution of the IEA to provide a global energy data coverage

8. © OECD/IEA, 2009 The challenge passed to the international energy statistics community: A need to further improve quality and coverage The Energy Statistics Manual (with Eurostat) The JODI initiative (7 organisations) InterEnerStat (21 organisations) The Energy Efficiency Template (EU ODYSSEE, APEC) A few selected examples of concrete actions taken by the IEA (together with other organisations):

9. © OECD/IEA, 2009 Facilitating the understanding of energy statistics The Energy Statistics Manual (with Eurostat) Spanish RussianChinese FrenchGerman An Arabic version is under preparation Turkish Indonesian

10. © OECD/IEA, 2009 UN Secretaria de Energía Mexico 5% gap 1995199619971998 APEC2653290330873134 IEA2741287230623109 OLADE272229693022 3070 OPEC2618285830223071 UN283429773166 Crude Oil Production for Mexico (in kbd) 3210 The Joint Oil Date Initiative (JODI) (APEC, Eurostat, IEA, IEFS, OLADE, OPEC, UNSD)

11. © OECD/IEA, 2009 Country:Month: Unit: JOINT APERC/EUROSTAT/OECD-IEA/ OLADE/OPEC/UN DATA EXERCISE A joint questionnaire as simple as possible Simple definitions Month -1 and month -2 Choice of units left to organisations A simple format (42 data points)

12. © OECD/IEA, 2009 International Energy Forum Conferences JODI ConferencesInter-Secretariat Working Group Meetings Amst. May 04 Mexico May 02 Paris Dec 03 Nine years of hard work and cooperation Riyadh Nov. 01 Mexico May 02 Luxem. Jan 02 Vienna Apr 02 Madrid July 00 Bangkok Apr 01 Paris Nov 00 Riyadh Nov 00 Vienna May 01 Vienna Oct 01 Amst. May 04 Vienna Jan 03 Paris July 02 Paris Dec 03 Vienna Jun 04 Paris Nov 05 Riyadh Jan 05 Paris Jul 05 Riyadh Nov 05 Cairo Oct 03 Bali Oct 04 Osaka Sep 02 Luxem. Jan 06 Vienna Sep 06 N York May 06 Riyadh Nov 06 Doha May 06 Paris Nov 07 Paris Oct 08 Luxem. June 08 Vienna Mar 09 Quito June 09 Rome May 08 Current development Extension to natural gas Extension to additional annual data Launch of the JODI Database

13. 7 th International JODI Conference, 4-5 June 2009, Quito, Ecuador Improvement in JODI performance Global Participation of *98 countries Number of Smiley Faces ☺ 2008 Jul-Dec 2006 Jul-Dec Improvement (%) 2008 Jul-Dec/2006 Jul-Dec Submission Timeliness Completeness Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative *No assessment for Tunisia who joined the Initiative from January 2009 data ☺ 827115.5% ☺ 544812.5% ☺ 645516.4% 72 countries have reported M-1 data in April 2009 (compared to almost none in 2002) Major progress in timeliness M-1 vs. M-2

14. © OECD/IEA, 2009 An extension of JODI to all fuels and all flows An extension to data provider and user organisations Priority given to harmonisation InterEnerStat 21 international/regional organisations

15. © OECD/IEA, 2009 Close to an agreement on harmonised definitions 4 th InterEnerStat Meeting, IEA, October 2009

16. © OECD/IEA, 2009 FAO UN EUROSTAT OPEC OAPEC ? AFREC Harmonisation of definitions, a first step towards a common questionnaire

17. © OECD/IEA - 2009 World abatement of energy-related CO 2 emissions in the 450 Scenario Two-thirds of CO2 reduction should come from energy efficiency by 2010; 57% by 2030 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 200720102015202020252030 Gt 450 Scenario Reference Scenario OECD+ OME OC 3.8 Gt 13.8 Gt CCS Nuclear Renewables & biofuels Efficiency World abatement by technology 2020 3.8 Gt 65% 19% 13% 3% 2030 13.8 Gt 57% 23% 10% The Energy Efficiency Template

18. © OECD/IEA, 2009 Aggregated Indicators Disaggregated Indicators Process Efficiency TPES/GDP TPES/Production Electricity Cons./Population CO2/GDP PPP Efficiency Elec. Prod. Cons./ton cement Heating Cons./sqm/DD Litre/100km (stock) Only a minimum set of indicators can be derived from basic statistics Dry process Condensing boiler Litre/100km (vintage) The problem is that current data are not detailed enough for sound energy efficiency policy The Indicator Pyramid

19. © OECD/IEA, 2009 Lack of proper indicators could lead to major uncertainties for formulating action plans Industry Transport Residential Services And the 1 st priority is... Industry! And the last priority is... Residential! So, the need to act and react

20. © OECD/IEA, 2009 In consultation with APEC, the ODYSSEE, the IEA has developed a questionnaire on energy efficiencies After several years of negotiations, Ministers have agreed to adopt this new questionnaire in October 2009

21. © OECD/IEA, 2009 Examples of detailed information to be collected RESIDENTIAL % 10 6 kWh/unit

22. © OECD/IEA, 2009 Liberalisation of the market: From one company to hundreds Confidentiality (linked to liberalisation) More work passed to statistics offices: More companies to survey (liberalisation) Renewables (remote information) Energy efficiency indicators (including socio-economic data) Environment (estimation of GHG emissions, ….) etc. Resources do not follow work load: Statistics still have a low profile, budget cuts What about new challenges faced by energy statisticians at the country level

23. © OECD/IEA, 2009 Please Help Me… A need to raise the profile of energy statistics and statisticians More work and fewer resources

24. © OECD/IEA, 2009 Raising the profile of statistics and the role of statisticians No direct link between policy makers and statisticians Current situation

25. © OECD/IEA, 2009 Decision makers Need the right data immediately Allocation of resources Decision makers Need the right data immediately Allocation of resources Prime users of the data Advisors to policy makers Interface between policy makers and statisticians  Lobby  Comments on data Prime users of the data Advisors to policy makers Interface between policy makers and statisticians  Lobby  Comments on data The ones who do the work Should be fully involved in the whole process  Statisticians need to understand why they collect the data  Policy makers need to understand the problems faced by statisticians The ones who do the work Should be fully involved in the whole process  Statisticians need to understand why they collect the data  Policy makers need to understand the problems faced by statisticians In fact, the relationship between policy makers, analysts and statisticians should be more based on a 3-way street

26. © OECD/IEA, 2009 On 19 November 2005, an example of how the profile of statistics can be raised is the launch of the JODI Database by King Abdullah JODI has been a major contributor for raising the profile

27. © OECD/IEA, 2009 Real Data – Real World Energy Statistics Forecast the evolution of the energy situation Review the energy market Feed the debate on climate change Assess the past to better understand the present

28. © OECD/IEA, 2009 A Few Words to Conclude Thank you The real world needs more and better data Harmonisation and cooperation are two key words to provide more and better real data The IEA is very active to improve quality and coverage for OECD countries and worldwide However policy makers should understand the challenges passed to their statisticians