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OVER 40 YEARS ON THE WORLD MARKET Over 40 Years at the World Market «New Russian initiatives in the nuclear energy and the global nuclear renaissance» V.A.Smirnov, Director General JSC «Techsnabexport» October, 17, 2006 Australia, Sidney «New Russian initiatives in the nuclear energy and the global nuclear renaissance» V.A.Smirnov, Director General JSC «Techsnabexport» October, 17, 2006 Australia, Sidney
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OVER 40 YEARS ON THE WORLD MARKET 2 Forecast of the World Nuclear Association of the increase of the installed nuclear capacities in the «leading countries» (excluding Russia) by 2020 according to the upper scenario TENEX
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OVER 40 YEARS ON THE WORLD MARKET 3 TENEX Assessments of potential deficit of electricity generating capacities in Russia Demand for additional generating capacities in Russia: 2010 – 36 GW 2020 – 131 GW 2030 – 237 GW Demand for additional generating capacities in Russia: 2010 – 36 GW 2020 – 131 GW 2030 – 237 GW Total demand for new generating capacities by 2030 – more than 300 GWt Decommission of generating capacities by 2030, Gwt 45 – economical reasons 65 – technical reasons Decommission of generating capacities by 2030, Gwt 45 – economical reasons 65 – technical reasons Eastern region Central region Mid-Volga region North-west region Siberia UralsNorthern Caucasus – generating capacities shortage, 2010 – generating capacities shortage, 2020 – generating capacities shortage, 2030 – generating capacities shortage, 2010 – generating capacities shortage, 2020 – generating capacities shortage, 2030
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OVER 40 YEARS ON THE WORLD MARKET 4 TENEX Scenarios for nuclear generating capacities development in Russia
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OVER 40 YEARS ON THE WORLD MARKET 5 TENEX Kalinin NPP Beloyarskaya NPP Yuzhno-uralskaya NPPVolgodonsk NPP Kursk NPP Novo-Voronezh NPP Balakovo NPP Leningrad-2 NPP Primorskaya NPP Dalnevostochnaya NPP Kola NPP Severskaya NPP Accepted by UES of Russia investors regions UES of Russia to cover shortages Perm NPP Nizhny Novgorod NPP Kaliningrad NPP Main parameters of Federal Program “Development of Russia’s Nuclear Energy & Industrial Complex between 2007 and 2010 and Prospects until 2015”. NPPs’ total installed capacities by 2015: 33GW. Share of nuclear generation will increase up to 18.6 per cent of total. Program is financed as follows: 1, 471.4 bln roubles (US$ 54.5 bln), with a breakdown as follows: 674.8 bln. roubles (US$ 25 bln.) - federal budget disbursements 796.6 bln. roubles (US$ 29.5 bln.) – funds by nuclear industry’s organizations
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OVER 40 YEARS ON THE WORLD MARKET 6 TENEX Nuclear Fuel Cycle requires development to keep pace with NPP rate of construction mining enrichment fabrication
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OVER 40 YEARS ON THE WORLD MARKET 7 TENEX DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL FUEL CYCLE INFRASTRUCTURE: Natural Uranium 2005 г. Uranium Enrichment 2020 г. demand ~45 mln. SWUs demand ~75 mln.SWUs Demand for natural Uranium and SWU are indicated as per WNA, based on upper scenario The increase of uranium primary production is required The development of centrifuge capacities is required demand ~65 thousand tons demand ~103 thousand tons 2005 г. 2020 г. 63 % 37 % 93 % 7% 100 % 70 % 30 %
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OVER 40 YEARS ON THE WORLD MARKET 8 TENEX TRADE RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED ON RUSSIN URANIUM PRODUCTS : the trade restrictions have been in place in the US and Euroatom countries for more than 15 years the trade restrictions look ridiculous in the current market situation and they are in conflict with market economy principles utilities support the elimination of the trade restrictions for Russian uranium products the trade restrictions have been in place in the US and Euroatom countries for more than 15 years the trade restrictions look ridiculous in the current market situation and they are in conflict with market economy principles utilities support the elimination of the trade restrictions for Russian uranium products
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OVER 40 YEARS ON THE WORLD MARKET 9 TENEX IT IS REQUIRED TO SECURE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME IT IS REQUIRED TO SECURE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME Growth of nuclear energy use Growth of risk for the breach in the non-proliferation regime
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OVER 40 YEARS ON THE WORLD MARKET 10 TENEX RUSSIAN INITIATIVES TO ESTABLISH AN INTERNATIONAL URANIUM ENRICHMENT CENTER : President of the Russian Federation’s initiative on the peaceful use of nuclear energy, January 25, 2006, St. Petersburg. «… Russia is firmly committed to expanding cooperation on global energy security within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Community. One of the priorities in this area is to develop cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy…We need to create the prototype of a global infrastructure that will give all interested countries equal access to nuclear energy, while stressing reliable compliance with the requirements of the non-proliferation regime, of course...The creation of a system of international centres providing nuclear fuel cycle services, including enrichment, on a non- discriminatory basis and under the control of the IAEA, could become a key element in developing this new infrastructure…» President of the Russian Federation’s initiative on the peaceful use of nuclear energy, January 25, 2006, St. Petersburg. «… Russia is firmly committed to expanding cooperation on global energy security within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Community. One of the priorities in this area is to develop cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy…We need to create the prototype of a global infrastructure that will give all interested countries equal access to nuclear energy, while stressing reliable compliance with the requirements of the non-proliferation regime, of course...The creation of a system of international centres providing nuclear fuel cycle services, including enrichment, on a non- discriminatory basis and under the control of the IAEA, could become a key element in developing this new infrastructure…» Report delivered by the head of Federal Nuclear Energy Agency, September 19, 2006, Vienna «…The first International Uranium Enrichment Center will be established in the territory of the Russian Federation, in Angarsk…» Report delivered by the head of Federal Nuclear Energy Agency, September 19, 2006, Vienna «…The first International Uranium Enrichment Center will be established in the territory of the Russian Federation, in Angarsk…»
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OVER 40 YEARS ON THE WORLD MARKET 11 TENEX The followings are required for sustainable and efficient development of nuclear industry: consolidation of efforts and involvement of all participants on a mutually beneficial basis; internationalization of nuclear fuel cycle; secured access for interested countries to nuclear fuel cycle products and services without the breach of non-proliferation regime. consolidation of efforts and involvement of all participants on a mutually beneficial basis; internationalization of nuclear fuel cycle; secured access for interested countries to nuclear fuel cycle products and services without the breach of non-proliferation regime.
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OVER 40 YEARS ON THE WORLD MARKET 12 TENEX THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION!
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