1. Geopolitical forecast: natural gas 2020 26 March 2014 Conference “The Future of Natural gas”

2. Summary In the world the production of conventional gas from new fields will increase sharply, chiefly in sea areas; the shale gas revolution will change the composition and structure of manufacturers and consumers; many new gas pipelines, liquefaction and regasification terminals will facilitate and diversify gas supplies; Iran and Iraq will restore their positions as gas exporters; the influence of the spot market on the price of supplies will increase; the role of Russia and Turkey as actors in the gas market will diminish. The European Union will attain its strategic goals for energy security: sufficient quantity of gas for the community, extracted locally and imported; diversification of external suppliers; diversity of transportation means; integrated gas infrastructure for the 28 EU states. In Bulgaria the share of natural gas in the country’s energy consumption will increase considerably as that fuel has much higher efficiency than electricity and is environmentally friendly. That will improve the energy efficiency and competitiveness of Bulgarian economy.

3. Gas production in the world by countries and regions * In billions of m 3 200020122018 (red) Russia (grey) USA (green) Western Europe (yellow) Caspian region (blue) Other countries

4. Natural gas production from the Caspian region * In billions of m 3 1200

5. Natural gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean * In billions of m 3

6. Natural gas fields in the Back Sea * In billions of m 3

7. Shale gas basins in the world, May 2013 in red – estimated reserves in yellow – localized reserves

8. New gas pipelines to/in Europe by 2020

9. LNG re-gasification terminals in Europe 12 under construction 19 operating

10. LNG re-gasification terminals in SEE by 2020 Revitusa Aliaga Marmara- Ereglisi Alexandropulis Krk Constanta Saros Crete

11. LNG terminals under construction in USA for export of natural gas Liquefaction terminals

12. Bulgaria in “Connected Europe 2020“ Projects of interconnectors between Bulgaria and neighboring countries

13. Risk Management Laboratory Thank you for your attention site: www.riskmanagementlab.comwww.riskmanagementlab.com e-mail: riskmlab@nbu.bgriskmlab@nbu.bg