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Published byZoe McBride Modified over 9 years ago
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Beef Cattle Situation and Outlook
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1.39 million tons
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Major Items to Watch this Year Price of corn Total meat production Economy Crude oil prices U.S. currency value
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
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2008 Outlook
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Recent and Projected Beef Supply
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Total Meat Supplies 87.1 93.24 91.0689.5 85.4
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What is the Market Offering Today- Futures Based Price Projections
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What You Can Sell for Today-Futures Based Price Projections
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Inputs
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Fertilizer Prices 1997-2007 Nitrogen prices have increased 91% since 2002
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Fuel Prices 1997-2007 Diesel prices are up 300% since 2002
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Impact of Fuel & Fertilizer Prices on Cost of Production
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Projected Profits for 2008 ItemSouth Georgia North Georgia Expected Returns Over Variable Costs ($/cow) ($3.13)($30.58) Chance for positive returns48%30% Returns to Land, Labor, Capital and Management ($/cow) $56.87($2.80) Breakeven Price ($/cwt.)$100.32$101.73
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BEEF COWS THAT HAVE CALVED JANUARY 1, 2008 (1000 Head) Alaska Hawaii US Total Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS
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CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2007 TO JANUARY 1, 2008 (1000 Head) Alaska Hawaii US Total Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS
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Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS
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Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS -1.0%
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DEMAND FOR FEEDERS
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Price Differences between classes
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Energy Bill 36 billion gallons of ethanol used by blenders by 2022. 15 billion gallons required to come from corn by 2015. 15 billion gallons ethanol ≈5.4 billion bushels of corn. 2007 U.S. corn crop = 13.05 billion bushels. At 2007 yield of 151 bushels, need 35.76 million acres just for ethanol.
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Longer Term Trends Continued pressure from input prices. Continued consolidation in the beef industry. Continuing favorable beef demand. Expanding growth in grass-fed and natural beef segments. Animal traceability/mandatory animal ID.
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Summary & Implications Supply The herd has expanded some but the drought has halted growth for this year. Feeder cattle supplies are tight, … and will be for a while. Demand Demand for beef remains good but,…economy is a big question!! Higher corn prices will reduce demand for feeders Exports will help. Profits Most cow-calf producers will be hard pressed to cover out of pocket expenses for next 2-4 years. Higher feed, fuel and fertilizer costs will continue to squeeze profits. We are probably going to have to change our way of doing business. High-quality, source-verified, preconditioned cattle will always top the market.
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