1. Hartanto Respati University of Yogyakarta
Democratization
Hartanto
Respati University of Yogyakarta

2. Three Waves of Democracy
In his book The Third Wave, Samuel Huntington argues that there have been three waves of democratization in modern history.
Samuel P. Huntington

3. The Three Waves: When?

4. Huntington’s Definition of Democracy
Huntington offers two definitions of democracy that apply to different periods of time.
Definition 1
-Applies to 19th Century.
50% of adult males can vote.
There is an executive that either maintains majority support in an elected parliament, or is chosen in periodic popular elections.

5. Huntington’s Definition of Democracy
- Applies to 20th Century.
Virtually all adults can vote.
Leaders are selected through fair, honest and periodic elections.

6. The First Wave: Why?
Occurred mostly in Northern Europe and white settler countries. The causes are:
Economic Factors:
First countries to experience economic development, industrialization and urbanization.
Emergence of middle class.
Decrease in economic inequality.

7. The First Wave: Why? Historical events and intellectual developments:
French Revolution.
American Revolution.
John Locke.
Montesquieu.
John Stuart Mill.

8. The First Wave: Why? Religious Factors World War One
Over 75% of the countries that democratized in the first wave had majority Protestant populations.
World War One
Democratic countries defeated two large authoritarian empires, the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires.
This produced snowballing, or a demonstration effect, that encouraged the development of democracy.

9. The Second Wave: Why? The second wave is largely related to WW2.
Imposition of Democracy.
Allied powers imposed democracy on certain defeated countries, such as Japan and Germany.
Snowballing (demonstration) effect.
Some countries independently chose to be democratic.

10. The Second Wave: Why? Decolonization.
Countries that had a number of colonies (e.g. Britain, France, Holland and Portugal) were severely weakened after WW2.
The United States pressured these countries to give up their colonies.
Many former colonies became independent and democratic.

11. The Third Wave: Why? Some 30 countries became democratic. Legitimacy.
Democratic ideas became widely accepted.
Authoritarian regimes could not solve economic problems as efficiently as democratic countries.
Economic Growth.
Higher standards of living and education contributed to the expansion of the urban middle class.

12. The Third Wave: Why? Change in the Catholic church. Foreign Policy.
The Catholic church, which used to be a supporter of authoritarian regimes, changed its doctrine and practice and supported democracy.
Foreign Policy.
Expansion of the EU.
Promotion of democracy and human rights by the United States.
Fall of the Soviet Union.

13. The Third Wave: Why? Snowball (or demonstration effect).
Early third wave transitions received great media attention, which later stimulated transitions in other countries.

14. Democratic Transition
Democratic transition requires three components.
The end of an authoritarian regime.
The installation of a new democratic regime (through elections).
The consolidation of this democratic regime.

15. Democratic Transition A/a-d-D
A = stable, long-lasting authoritarian regime.
D = stable, long-lasting democratic regime.
a = unstable, short-lived authoritarian regime.
d = unstable, short-lived democratic regime.
Stable Authoritarianism
Unstable Democracy
Stable Democracy
Unstable Authoritarianism
Time

16. Processes of Democratization
Huntington identifies three different types of democratization process.
Democratic transformation.
takes place when powerholders take the lead in bringing about democracy.
Democratic replacement.
takes place when opposition groups take the lead in bringing about democracy. Old authoritarian regime is overthrown.
Democratic transplacement.
takes place when there is joint action by the government and opposition groups to promote democratization.

17. Prospects for Democratic Consolidation
The following conditions facilitate democratic consolidation.
Previous experience of democracy.
Relatively high GNP per capita.
Favorable external environment.
Democratic transition at an earlier, rather than later, stage in the third wave.
Democratization via transplacement, rather than transformation or replacement.
The following slides discuss each of these conditions more in detail.

18. 1. Previous Democratic Experience
Huntington argues that:
Some experience of democracy is better than none.
Longer experience of democracy is better than shorter experience.
The more recent the democratic experience, the better.

19. Chart: Years of Democratic Experience
More than 20 years
Uruguay, The Philippines, India, Turkey, Chile
10-19 years
Greece, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Korea, Pakistan, Brazil
1-9 years
Argentina, Honduras, Guatemala, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Grenada, Nigeria
Less than one year
Spain, Portugal, El Salvador, Poland, Romania, East Germany, Bulgaria, Nicaragua, Sudan, Mongolia

20. 2. Level of Economic Development
The higher level of economic development, the greater the likelihood of stable democracy.
Economically developed countries have:
More industrialized economies.
More modern economies.
More complex societies.
Better educated populations.
These factors all help consolidate democracy.

21. Chart: Democracy and GNP per capita
Higher than
$5, 000
Spain, East Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria
$2, 000 – $4, 999
Greece, Portugal, Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, Poland, Romania, Korea
$1, 000 – $1, 999
Ecuador, Peru, Turkey, Grenada, Chile
$500 – $999
Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Bolivia, The Philippines
Less than $500
India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sudan

22. 3. The External Environment
A foreign country can have a positive influence on democratic consolidation, if the relevant foreign government:
is itself democratic.
promotes democracy in other countries.
has close relations with the third wave country in question.
is able to exercise influence in the third wave country in question.

23. Chart: External Environment and Democracy
Extremely favorable
East Germany, Spain, Portugal, Greece
Quite Favorable
Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Turkey, The Philippines, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Grenada
Favorable
Peru, Ecuador, Uruguay, Korea,
Chile
Unfavorable
Argentina, Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sudan, Romania, Bulgaria, Mongolia

24. 4. The Timing of the Democratic Transition
Early = Indigenous
Earlier democratizations are more likely to be the result of indigenous causes, rather than a snowball effect.
Indigenous = Consolidation
Democratic transitions caused by indigenous factors are more likely to lead to consolidated democracies.
Therefore, Early = Consolidation
The earlier a country democratizes within the third wave, the more likely it is to become a consolidated democracy.

25. First Dates of Elections and Democracy
Before 1980
Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ecuador, India, Nigeria,
1980 – 1983
Peru, Argentina, Bolivia, Honduras, Turkey
1984 – 1987
Uruguay, Brazil, The Philippines, El Salvador, Guatemala, Korea, Grenada, Sudan
1988 – 1990
Pakistan, Poland, Hungary, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Chile
Possible after 1990
Mexico, Soviet Union, South Africa, Taiwan, Nepal, Panama

26. 5. Process of Democratic Transition
Huntington identified three processes of democratic transition; transformation, replacement and transplacement.
Huntington argues:
There is more chance of a successful democratic consolidation if elites from the previous non-democratic regime are satisfied.
There is less chance of democratic consolidation if the transition involved violence.
If the above statements are true, it follows that transplacement is most likely to lead to consolidated democracy.

27. Chart: Transition Process and Democracy
Type of Old Regime
Transition Process
One party
Personal
Military
Racial Oligarchy
Transplacement
Poland Czechoslovakia
Nicaragua Mongolia
(Nepal)
Uruguay
Bolivia Honduras
El Salvador
Korea
(South Africa)
Transformation
Hungary
Bulgaria
(Taiwan)
(USSR)
Spain
India
Chile
Turkey
Brazil
Peru
Guatemala
Ecuador
Nigeria
Pakistan
Sudan
Replacement
East Germany
Portugal
The Philippines
Romania
Greece Argentina

28. Chart: Overall Prospects for Democracy
Most Favorable
Greece, Portugal, Spain, East Germany, Uruguay, Turkey
Less Favorable but Supportive
Czechoslovakia, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru, Honduras, India, Argentina, Brazil, The Philippines, Poland, Hungary, (Korea)
Less Favorable
Guatemala, Grenada, Nigeria, El Salavador, Pakistan, Nicaragua, Bulgaria, Mongolia
Especially Unfavorable
Sudan, Romania

29. Chart: Freedom Classification by Freedom House (2003)
Greece, Portugal, Spain, East Germany, Uruguay, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Brazil, The Philippines, India, Poland, Hungary, Grenada, Bulgaria, El Salvador, Mongolia, Romania, Korea
Partly Free
Turkey, Ecuador, Honduras, Argentina, Guatemala, Nigeria, Nicaragua
Not Free
Pakistan, Sudan

30. Spreading democracies or dim-ocracies in the Middle East?
Image:

31. Middle East Geographic area
Not cultural, ethnic, linguistic, or religious
Not all Arab countries

32. The Arab World… (based on Arab League Membership)

33. Middle East Political Landscape Country Indicators for Foreign Policy
Index 2000
Democracy
Civil,
Political Rights
Press Freedom
Corruption
Jordan 7 6 4
Egypt 8
Saudi Arabia 9
n/a
Kuwait 5
Turkey 3
Iraq
Algeria
Morocco
Columbia
Key: 1=Good 9=Poor; Source:

34. Authoritarian Middle Eastern Regimes
April 2002: 5,000 demonstrate outside Al-Azhar mosque; Source: Al-Ahram
There are more authoritarian regimes in the ME than anywhere else
Repression, exclusion of political participation
‘insular’/resist globaliz’n
Large youth population
→Hopelessness, extremism
What encourages democratization?

35. Internal Factors that Encourage Democratization…
National unity– ‘togetherness’
Political leadership-- personalities
Historical legacy-- colonialism
Political culture– people view power
Ethnic harmony-- cooperation
Strong political parties-- brokerage
Political institutions—legisl; judiciary
Socioeconomic development– middle class
Relationship among classes–bourgeoisie
National security– no external threat
Map of Saudi Arabia

36. External Factors that Encourage Democratization…
International organizations
UN declaration of human rights
International law; ICC
State pressure
EU; foreign aid
Economic Factors
MNCs, entrepreneurs
Globalization
Waves of democracy
Huntington: “snowballing”

37. George W. Bush on November 6th 2003 at the National Endowment for Democracy
“As long as the Middle East remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place of stagnation, resentment, and violence, ready for export…. The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution.”

38. What is the Future of the Political Landscape in the Middle East?
Domino Democratization in the Middle East
US administration
professes
Unleashing political darkness: dim-ocracy
Skeptics

39. THANK YOU