1. 1 Austria‘s emission projections Stephan Poupa & Melanie Sporer, 10th Mai 2010

2. Outline 2 1. General System 2. Models and Methods 3. Results 4. Outlook

3. 1. General System 3 NISA and EMIPRO reporting Institutional arrangements Scenario development Policies and measures General System

4. Reporting (NISA and EMIPRO) 44 Submission under UNFCCC National Inventory Report (NIR), Common Reporting Format (CRF) Tables, National Communications Submission under EC NEC NFR Tables for NEC Gases and Report Submission under EC GHG Monitoring Mechanism CRF Tables/Short NIR, EMIPRO Report, PaMs & Projections Tables Submission under UNECE/LTRAP Informative Inventory Report (IIR), Nomenclature for Reporting (NFR) Tables National Reports to the parliament and for the public Policies & Measures and Projections UNFCCC + Kyoto Protocol Environmental Control Act EC NEC Directive EC GHG Monitoring Mechanism UNECE/LRTAP + Protocols General System -------------------

5. Institutional arrangements 5 General System BMLFUW: contracting body WIFO: general macro- economic data;industrial production TU Vienna: ERNSTL; input renewables Energieagentur: BALMOREL, LEAP Umweltbundesamt: overall coordination, technical support, compilation, waste projections, autoproducer, policies and measures, … TU Graz: GLOBEMI, GEORG WIFO, Gumpen- stein: PASMA

6. Scenario development 6 with measures - scenario (wm) and a with additional measures - scenario (wam) for GHG; wm -scenario for air pollutants the underlying wm- forecast (activity data) takes into account climate change mitigation measures that were implemented under the Austrian Climate Strategies 2002 and 2007 before 8 th August 2008 wam – forecast takes into account planned policies and measures with a realistic chance of being adopted and implemented in time. General System All additional measures have been defined at expert level in consultation with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BMLFUW).

7. 2. Models and Methods 7 Modeling framework and sectoral approach Quality management Uncertainty assessment Key parameters Models and Methods

8. Modeling framework for emission projections 8 Energy Forecast (national energy balance, macro- economic model, 3 bottom up, models) Transport Forecast (bottom-up national transport model GLOBEMI) Agricultural Forecast (PASMA model and expert consultations) Waste Forecast (EAA and expert judgements) Forecast Industrial Processes, Solvents, F-Gases (EAA,macro- economic model) Sectoral Emission Projections (Umweltbundesamt-EAA) National Emission Projections (Umweltbundesamt-EAA) Models and methods

9. Quality management 9 Questionnaire has been used for checking input data for compliance with the most important data quality requirements Several data consistency checks have been performed e.g. by documentation of data inputs and changes in the calculation files; fixed input form has been used for each sector Often same person responsible for sectoral emission projections and Inventory; some sectors use emission methods based on the verified inventory methods An output data check has been carried out by comparing the results of the sectors in detail and checking the plausibility of the emission trends There are iterative feedback-loops between modeling teams, sectoral experts, and sectoral inventory experts in which scenarios, assumptions and policies and measures included in the forecasts are discussed Models and methods

10. Key underlying assumptions 10 Models and methods average oil price of the energy model (WIFO): USD120 (USD/€ 1,37)

11. Uncertainty Assessment 11 Sensitivity assessments have been performed for specific (sub-) sectors, analysing the increase and decrease of key factors or of a combination of key factors:  Energy sector: influence of the natural gas price, electricity demand and electricity imports on CO 2 emissions of Energy Industries; influence of the oil price on CO 2 emissions from Manufacturing Industries and Construction; changes of renovation rate and changes of boiler exchange rates on CO 2 emissions from the Residential and Commercial sector; influence of fuel price differences between Austria and neighbouring countries on CO 2 emissions from Transport  Agricultural sector: changes of product prices Models and methods

12. 3. Results 12 Results Sensitivity Analysis Submission under EC NEC Directive Submission under UNECE/ LRTAP Convention

13. Sensitivity analysis transport 13 Results

14. Sensitivity analysis residentials 14 Results

15. EC NEC Directive 15 Results

16. UNECE/LTRAP Convention 16 Results

17. 4. Outlook 17 More flexibility in development of varied reduction scenarios Assess synergies and trade offs between gases (AQ/CC) Update of energy projections 2030 Long term scenarios 2050 (maybe other approach e.g. backcasting) Improved uncertainty assessment National Emission Projections System Austria (maybe GAINS, Access,….) Outlook

18. Contact & Information Stephan Poupa stephan.poupa@umweltbundesamt.at Melanie Sporer melanie.sporer@umweltbundesamt.at 18 Umweltbundesamt www.umweltbundesamt.at Joint TFEIP/EIONET meeting Larnaca ■ 10th Mai